The sound of rain will be on the wx stage the next few days.  What else?  Read on, Patron.

 

The Low pressure trough west of the coast, mentioned last week, is now in position to spin several bands of notable moisture across the PNW between now and Monday evening.  Imbedded thunderstorms should not be ruled out, esp Saturday evening.  Overall, there is a high probability for rainfall totals ranging in the 1/2" - 2” over the next 4 days in the lowlands.  We can sure use the precip.  

 

Next week will turn dry & WARM by mid-week, as temps rebound considerably, with highs topping out in the 80s in many west side OR locations; a upper 70s for Puget Sound.  That said, if the onshore breeze kicks-in strong enough (some solutions suggest this), that will tap down temps a bit, but still present dry conditions.  Friday the 18th could be in the low-to-mid 80s.  

 

Head or Tails.  Here’s where we get into a model coin flip.  Several model runs indicate that dry, warm-turning-hot conditions will prevail after our rainy period.  A few solutions bring in another round of rain/showers, keeping the region cooler, starting again next weekend.  Well, which do we go with?  Flip the coin for now.

 

  Heads -  the weekend of Jun 19,20 starts out on the warm side (80s) with increasing clouds from the NW by late Sat night and precipitation moving onshore sometime Sunday morning.  Wettest over NW WA.  On Mon Jun 21, moderate rain may work south into OR as a Low center directly over the state.  Cool air aloft could spawn thunderstorms south of Salem by Tue.  Showers continue over WA and NW OR into mid-week; past that, sun and warmth should return by late that week, into the last weekend of June.

 

  Tails - the other side of the model “coin” charts dry through the weekend of Jun 19,20 with an onshore breeze, with temperatures continuing to climb when as the following week (Jun 21-25) gets underway. Temp topping in the 90s for OR, bit cooler for Puget Sound.

 

If this has swirled your Mug too much, don’t worry, it will likely change anyway.   The bottom line:  we are going to receive a decent period of rain/showers, with warmer temps afterward.  How long that heated dry spell will last is the question.  We’ll sip through the updated model scenarios on Mon Jun 14.

 

A giggle from the ’net:  “Chocolate is vital for our survival.  Dinosaurs didn’t have chocolate and look what happened to them."

 

Ah, some rain did fall, spotty & mainly north of Portland.  We should forecast 'no rain' more often, that way the region can dig out of this drought.  Seriously, it was good for several locations to get dust-settling showers.  A bit more on the way before it turns warm again.  Mug up time.

The PNW will be under the influence of a large trough of Low pressure that has settled in, so expect rather cool temps, periods of cloudiness and an occasional shower over the next few days.  The wind should diminish, relative to this past weekend.  Another chance for measurable rain/showers is on tap for late Thu Jun 10 on into Fri the 11th because another, more ‘organized’ Low will set up west of the coast and slowly drift south through the 15th.  The result will be warmer temps, a bump-up in humidity and chance for showers and/or thunderstorms, mainly west side & along the west slopes of the Cascades.  Therefore, the coming weekend should be mild & carry a risk for a shower here & there.  

 

Although the possibility of a June heat wave keeps popping up on some model solutions, it is less likely to occur early in the week of Jun 14-18.  Models are trending for continued mild temps & WINDY conditions the first part of that week, with an onshore flow prevailing.  The serious HEAT will remain over the desert SW, NV & UT.  It will take a western shift in the Pacific High to set up a heat wave in the PNW.  As mentioned, that is possible at some point around Jun 18 or 20th.  Give or take a day or two.   We’ll keep you posted, for sure.  For now, seasonal temps and BREEZY conditions through the week of Jun 14-18. 

 

The weekend of Jun 19,20 is trending on the warmer side of the previous several days.  Could be quite WINDY again on the 20th.  Keep the iced tea & sunblock handy, as that weekend may be transitional into a summer heat wave Jun 21-25.  Repeating: some model solutions keep the PNW on the cool side that weekend, but we have seen too many model runs of the PNW heating up to dismiss that possibility outright.  

 

 

Rain watch continues.  Gee, it doesn’t look favorable in that regard.  

 

This weekend:  it will be on the windy side through the weekend.  Farm Drat. Cooler temps because of the onshore flow.  There could be a stray shower or two, esp north of Olympia, even that may hold off until later Sunday.  The wind should diminish a bit by Mon; although cooler air will remain overhead, the onshore pressure gradient weakens.  

 

Next week continues to look DRY, with a large area of Low pressure spinning its way south, well west of the coast.  The result will be a more southerly component to the air flow, with a breeze will be from the SW.  Mild temps, with higher humidity, esp by late week.  Dry the weekend of Jun 12,13.

 

Mid-June heat?  Well, model charts swing back-n-forth on the possibility of a notable heat wave during the week of Jun 14-18.  The most recent chart trend is for NO HEAT issues, just more of the same onshore flow, with showers possible esp north of Portland.  Other options have been for a delay in the heat-up, keeping the region cooler under an onshore flow until late week, then temps begin to build on into the weekend of Jun 19,20.  As stated earlier, this period is a bit far out there on the charts, so much will change.  

 

Bottom line: even with a few WA showers, we do not see needed rainfall over the next 2 weeks.  There is that outlier model run showing moderate rain north of Seattle Wed-Thu Jun 16,17.  Just say’n.

 

 

 

Here you go —

 

HEAT will be the game for a couple more days west of the Cascades; east side will remain in the heat until Fri.  As the weekend arrives, so too will cooler onshore conditions.  The region may experience a few showers over the weekend, esp on Sunday.  Vancouver Is. could get a few showers a bit earlier.  Across the PNW, winds will again pick-up.

 

Next week will be dry, although the cool air aloft may spur on some showers, esp along the Cascades.  Temperatures will return to mild (60s - 70s; warmer east side later in the week).  Review of the charts for the weekend of June 12,13 indicates WARMER temps, dry. 

 

Look Patron, the region needs precipitation - this is a drought.  In fact, 64% of PNW is in drought.  Willamette Valley in Severe Drought (drought.gov).  The week of June 14 could really compound the problem.  Here’s why.

 

Temperatures in the June 14-18 period are charting to build into the 90s and, indeed, triple-digit ranges for many locations, including southern Willamette Valley.  We’ll monitor this closely; we recognize it is 2 weeks out.  Still, should this verify, several crops will be negatively impacted.  Overall, water conservation will be wise, for all.

 

 

Heading into a holiday weekend, so we’ll try to keep this brief.  Yeah right.  Mug up, Patron.

 

Sunshine & warmth will be the rule for the next 6 days.  It will turn “hot” early next week, as the overall pattern shifts into an August-type mode for a few days.  Expect temps to pop into the upper 80s & low 90s by Tue & Wed next week.  In the meantime, it should warm into the 80s as the holiday weekend progresses.  Water managers will need to maintain soil moisture, as one of the driest (RECORD dry for some PNW locations) Spring seasons continues into June.

 

The next cool down should begin on Thu June 3 because the onshore flow (our regional air conditioner) will kick back on again.  Windy (more on this below).  Marine cloud deck could linger, esp for Puget Sound Patrons, with a shower possible over southern BC.   

 

A change.  The weekend of Jun 5,6 is now trending away from being hot, to being windy & cool.  The dry pattern will continue, although a couple model runs suggest some precip mainly over western WA & BC.  Coolness rolls on into the following week, along with, what will be by then, a pestering wind.  The next time temps warm up, although for only a day or two, will be Wed or Thu Jun 9,10.  Cooler & windy, yet again, for the weekend of Jun 12,13.  Yikes.  All this could change back to warm or hot, but for now, that’s what the models indicate.  And now, the wind —

 

Many have noticed that this exceptionally DRY Spring has also had more than the usual number of days with winds blowing strong enough to hinder farm applications or even damage tender buds.  While not the ‘dust bowl’ pattern of the Great Plains in the 30s, it has definitely been windy inland from the coast.  Yesterday (May 27), winds around the region sure got some attention.  Your host (one of '3 Pumpkineers' here in Albany) had to provide extra support for the Giant Pumpkin plants being grown in our retirement community gardens (first timers, all).  Hazelnut grower concerns have also been expressed here at The WxCafé (TM) counter.  As noted above, there are several more days ahead of unusually high inland winds.  Double yikes.  There’s always something to battle when in the realm of agriculture, right?  “The answer my friend, is blow’n in the - - -"

 

Let’s go with mild temps, breezy afternoons in the June 13-15 period.  Oh, and no much needed precipitation.