We love it when wx models revert back to their earlier projections.  Such is the case forming the basis of this forecast.  Get your Mug ready, there’s good news.

A chilly, damp weekend is upon us, with rain moving in later tonight (north-to-south) and tomorrow.  Snow in the mountains, where we like it, and cold showers at the surface throughout the weekend.  Monday will present another round of rain & subsequent showers.  Breezy at times.

🌼 🌸 🪴 Beginning Tue Mar 12, clearing will begin from the north, with the start of a much-needed DRY SPELL that is charting to last well over a WEEK begins.  Indeed.  Temperatures will also be mild-to-warm, notching up a few degrees throughout the period.  People, plants, animals, and well, whatever, will all be exuberant.  The dry period will last long enough to allow soils to dry-down for growers & gardeners to work the land in prep for plantings, fertilizing, etc.  Early Spring blossoms will explode with color; trees will leaf-out; lawns will get mowed.  Coats put away.  Alright, admittedly, your host is getting a bit too carried away.  It is justified, if the models verify.  

St Patrick’s Day is now trending dry & pleasantly warm.  All the green will be spring growth.  Naturally.

The weekend of Mar 23,24 is trending wet, with mild temperatures.  

We all know these wx outlooks are subject to change, but for now, let’s be ready for an exuberant start to Spring 2024. 

So many places around the PNW experienced a bit of The White as March 2024 got started.  While we see a few warmer days on the charts, there are indications that the balance of ‘winter’ will remain on the chilly side.  The Spring Equinox is March 20.  Mug time is now.  

The coming weekend will present more rain and warmer temps, with a southerly flow, as a cold front stretches out along the west coast, slowly moving onshore over BC and WA first on Sat, OR and east late Sunday.  The new round of colder air pooling over the eastern Pacific will work its way onshore, similar to last week, for increasing rain/showers and snow levels dropping below the passes.  While this event does not chart as cold as the last, it will be cold enough aloft for development of intense showers, possible small hail, and the need for a coat Mon - Wed, Mar 11-13.  What was earlier looking to be a warmer, multi-day dry spell late next week, is now looking rather damp, but still warmer.  A sunny day or two remains on the charts Fri & Sat, Mar 15,16, before COLD rain returns on St Patty’s Day.  

The week of Mar 18-22 is trending damp early, cool, then, SPRING-like mild for a couple days, starting with Spring Equinox.  We’ll see.

California will DRY OUT starting Wed Mar 13.  The dry weather should hold in the Golden State through at least Mar 22.  Seasonably warmer, which will help with Almond pollination.

That’s right, March is coming in like a Lion - a COLD Lion.  Our long-range outlook does show promise of a warmer, drier run of a few days, but in the meantime, What You See Is What You Get.  Best to get your Mug refilled.

Snow and rain/snow mixed is the type of precip ahead for the next few days.  Many ‘sea level’ location Patrons have reported sticking snow at times (remember, our general forecasts cover southern BC down to northern CA).  It melts fast, as the ground is relatively warm.  Afternoon temps will chill down another few degrees this weekend, as the ‘core’ of that cold air mass driving the current on/off showers moves overhead.  One only need to move up in elevation a few hundred feet to get ALL SNOW.  Accumulations above 1,000 ft are already impressive, and will continue to build through Monday evening, Mar 4.  Thus, expect plenty of precip through the weekend and Monday.

We do see a ‘window' of DRY this coming Tue & Wed Mar 5,6 around the PNW, as most of the storm action targets California.  Two days with chilly temps, but at least we may stop the rain/snow for bit.  Frosty, if the sky clears.  By Thu Mar 7, the cold, wet pattern returns - a repeat, if you will - with more cold air pooled in a large trough (Low pressure) over the Gulf of Alaska/eastern Pacific.  Next weekend, Mar 9,10, is trending to mirror the current one, so don’t expect Spring to arrive just yet.  Chilly, with on/off rain or snow/rain showers, and snow above 500-1,000 ft.

The wet pattern continues to start the week of Mar 11-15.  Temps will slowly notch up a few degrees as the week progresses.  Wet Mon, Tue, most of Wed.  Good news, though.  Model runs suggest a relatively WARM ridge of High pressure building over the west coast beginning Thu Mar 14.  The dry, mild period could last past the Ides of March (Fri the 15th) on into St Patty’s Day weekend.  Temps could tease the 60s, esp along the coast.  Let’s hope this break in the wet weather arrives, as the entire west coast will absolutely NEED to dry out.  The snowpack along all the west coast mountain ranges will be exceptional.

The comfortable Spring-like weather has passed.  Time for coats again.  

Cold air is making its way into the PNW.  Lots of low elevation - not surface - snow will be the story for the next couple of weeks, as a cold pattern is modeled to settle in for the extended period.  The colder air is still setting up to arrive later today into Tue, with a short period of slightly warmer temps mid-week until the next, stronger, cold front pushes onshore by Thu.  Plenty of rain, too.  The weekend ahead looks wet and quite chilly, with mix of rain, rain/snow, and snow above 500 -1,000 ft.  

Side Bar: The higher sun angle this time of year, combined with very cold air aloft, will trigger rapid ‘lift’ of air ‘packets’ generating thunder, lightning, rain, snow, small hail, and ’soft balls’ of snow & ice called graupel.  If the storm ‘cell’ is intense enough and lasts a bit, surface air can cool enough to change surface precip to all snow.  Accumulations are not likely to be much above an inch or so, given the above-freezing ground temps, but don’t be surprised to see The White, at times.  

After the coming weekend, models keep cold air over the eastern Pacific & Gulf of Alaska, which will continue to spin-off fronts of rain and/or snow, at times, into the PNW.  Windy, too.  Any travel over the coast range, Siskiyou or Cascade ranges will be treacherous.  The pattern for Mar 4-12 looks quite wet, breezy, and loaded with feet of mountain snowfall.  

Overall, the weather for early March will be the “Lion” of the month.  Hopefully, the “Lamb” and 60 degree wx will show up late March.  In the meantime, grab a coat.

Around the PNW, folks are focused on the chance for low elevation snow next week.  That focus has merit.  Mug up & read.

Today will be spring-like, as will tomorrow, although it will cool off a tad, esp over the Puget Sound.  Enjoy the next 24-48 hrs.  Cold, wet wx is coming.  The cold air mass is still targeting the PNW for early next week, but the Low pressure center is now modeled to track a bit farther north over southern BC, which could drive the coldest air farther north early next week.  HOWEVER, we do see quite chilly temperatures and definitely a rain/snow mix at the surface - if not all snow at times - for many locations west of the Cascades.  Above 500 to 1,000 feet, plenty of The White is probable.  (Lots of areas around the region above 500 ft.)  The warm ground will melt any snow quickly, unless a heavy snow band passes overhead to whiten the grass, etc.  We’ll see.  

Rain and lowering snow levels will push onshore late Saturday (NW WA, Vancouver Is., etc) into Sunday (SW WA & western OR).  By late Sunday night, temps will drop quickly, so don’t be surprised to see snow or snow/rain mix if you are out & about after sunset Sunday.  Monday Feb 26 looks showery with snow showers and/or rain/snow mixed at the surface.  Mountain snow fall will be HEAVY throughout the period, so travel prepared for safety.

Model solutions for mid-to-late next week are trending toward continued chilly temps, with two or three cold fronts passing by.  Southerly winds will hold snow levels “up” off the valley floor.  We could get a decent WIND event overnight Wed or Thu morning, with surface rain and rain/snow mixed at times until Saturday March 2.  Cold air may again settle in after the Fri night (Mar 1) storm, ushering in showers of snow or rain/snow mixed for BC, WA & OR. Snow east side and over ID.  Frosty morning possible Sunday Mar 3.

The first full week of March 2024 looks quite chilly and WET.  On/off rain bands are charting for the whole week.  Intense showers, maybe small hail, as the air mass overhead will be cold, and sun breaks will cause ‘lift’ to set off heavy showers.  Typical early March pattern for the great PNW.

Bottom line:  current mild temps will yield to colder, wetter conditions for several days.  Low snow levels will generate plenty of informal conversations amongst residents of the PNW.  Bundle up and keep that Mug hot.