Fry Day June 25

 

The time has come for what will probably be a record breaking heat wave across the entire west coast.  The charts we monitor here hinted that 'something was up' way back on June 14; by last Friday the 18th, your WxCafé (TM) put out the call for preparations for heat issues.  As long-time Patrons know, the wx models are not always ‘crazy’ and do, indeed, provide careful planners a chance to be prepared ahead of time.  Hope you took heed.  

 

Primary Peak Heat period:  Sat through Mon.  Triple digit or top-shelf 90s temps will be in play.  The rarity of a heat event of this magnitude is being well presented by all weather specialists across the PNW.  Heed their notices concerning heat stroke, working outside, pets, and - while it seems SO OBVIOUS - don’t leave any person or pet (or even a plant) inside a vehicle (reports of this taking place happens every heat wave).  

 

Now, a couple features that are so unique to this potential event:  1) overnight lows may actually break records for ‘warmth' (as temps are likely to be in the 68-72 degree range — which is our AVERAGE daytime high temperatures for this time in June);  2) daytime highs may exceed 110 degrees in places on both sides of the Cascades.  Fortunately, the humidity around the region will be low, which will help a tiny bit.  It has been reported that the Seattle area has approx. 34% of homes with air conditioning.  Whoa.  Box fans will be more sought after than gold.

 

How long will this last?  For several days now, models have charted temps to exceed 90 degrees in many west side locations from today through the 4th of July.  The last couple of model runs have hinted Nature’s air conditioner will be fixed, meaning cooler air could begin infiltrating inland areas west of Cascades as early as Tue or Wed next week.  Too early to predict that with confidence, so we'll call for 4 to 5 consecutive days of heat wave temps (90 or above in the shade) starting today, Fry Day.  Some models drop the heat a bit the middle of next week, then pop it back up into the 90s west side during the 4th of July weekend; others keep that onshore flow holding down temps in the 80s.  East of the Cascades, it will remain seriously HOT for the next 7 days.

 

We’ll focus on the upcoming holiday weekend in our next discussion.  That said, long-range charts suggest another rather hot period around July 8-10.  NO rain.  Californians will be suffering through the heat, as well.

 

Agricultural impact:  aside from the challenge of keeping moisture in plant root zones, the excessive heat will cause a drop in production, as well as sun-scold, shrivel & mushiness - all attributes that, for the small fruit industry, lowers the percentage of packs that can go into the high $$ end IQF market (individually quick frozen / poly-bag).  Small fruit growers are going to be impacted.  

 

Stop by again on Monday for another update.  Heed all Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings — Very few of us have ever experienced such heat - - it’s nothing to joke about.  

 

 

 

Build up your ice supply.  A particularly long streak of hot weather is possible.  The current heat is a tease.  Iced coffee anyone?

 

The heat today will ease a little bit on Tues, with most of the 'onshore flow' cooling taking place Wed & Thu.  By Fri, temps will begin to rebound into the balcony seats of miserable.  The coming weekend (Jun 26-27) has the chance to be one for the record books, with serious heat arriving across much of the West.  Temps are likely to reach into the upper 90s or lower 100s in many OR west side locations; Patrons in WA will also be hit by the oven, although not quite so hot.  

 

The key feature we wish to point out in this discussion is that model solutions are indicating the heat-up next weekend could extend through the end of June and into early July.  While if may not be quite as hot as the Jun 26-29 period, temps could remain in the lower 90s in many locations west of the Cascades; hotter east of the Cascades.  California will also continue to, figuratively, melt away in the heat.  Energy usage, brown-outs, water concerns are all going to get magnified across the entire Western 1/3 of the Nation.  High evapotranspiration rates will challenge Agriculture and shallow-rooted landscaping.  Plan accordingly, esp if you are going to be away on vacation.

 

Generally, a cooling trend is charting for roughly after Jul 5 or 6, west side.  Still hot in the east.  Some model runs bring back a decent onshore flow around the 4th or so, but either way, the overall pattern - between Fri Jun 25th & Jul 5th - isn’t looking good for Patrons that do not like it hot.  We hope the models are totally wrong!

 

 

Ready.  Set.  Roast.  That’s about it for the PNW.  The oven door will be open periodically through the end of June.  Plan your cooling techniques.  

 

Breezy & warm today.  HEAT this weekend will build up each day, with Sunday the warmer of the two.  Then, Monday will be the hottest day of this round of heat (many locales will hit a record).  Portions of the Willamette Valley have a real chance to top in the triple digit range. Puget Sound could top in the 90s.  But wait there’s more - - 

 

Cooler temps begin on Tue, although still in the 90s for many, with Wed - Fri providing a short period of ‘closed oven door’ relief.  After that, Nature will open the oven once again.  This time, it will get HOTTER still.  Seriously, the pattern for the period of Jun 26-29 (+/- a day or so) is charting to be one for the record books, potentially.  Triple digit temps possible in many west side locales, and yes, eastern basins.   Onshore winds should begin to ‘air condition’ western locations by late Tue or Wed, Jun 29,30.  It will be WINDY.  Quite Dusty, too, east of the Cascades.  

 

For the whole period discussed above, Calif Patrons will COOK.  Temperatures in the Golden State will glow golden heat.  Yikes.  >>> Water issues across the entire western 1/3 of the US are going to expand to concerning levels as the summer of 2021 progresses.  

 

Overall cooling is possible after the 30th, but no measurable rainfall is popping up on the charts.  Early July is trending cool, with chance for morning drizzle or scattered showers for a day or two.  Hopefully.

 

Another quip from the ’Net:  “A car’s weakest part is the nut holding the steering wheel."

 

 

The rain has refreshed both land and people of the great PNW.  Thank goodness, because the coming dry spell will snap land & people right back into drought concerns.  Got your Mug ready?  Here goes - - 

 

Additional precipitation is possible today through Tue, before that pesky Low off the coast ‘fills in”.  Expect more sunshine by mid-week, with afternoon temperatures popping right back into summer mode by Thu & Fri.  Recall our Heads or Tails discussion from last week?  Well, Tails it is.   

 

Model solutions for the coming weekend have resolved away from any moisture or coolness, projecting instead rather warm-to-hot conditions.  In fact, the PNW is likely heading into a heat wave, with afternoon temps jumping into the 90s+ starting Sunday and continuing well into next week.  Coastal locations may get relief from an onshore breeze to mitigate the heat.  

 

The week of Jun 21-25 is trending DRY & HOT.  By Tue or Wed, temps may top the hottest of 2021 thus far for many west side locations.  Patrons in NW WA & southern BC will likely get in the summer heat mode, as well.  The only cooling possible depends on whether or not an onshore breezy picks up enough to push some marine air into west side valley locations.  Even then, it will probably remain too hot for Patrons that don’t like mid-to-upper 80s temps.  A major heat wave will grip UT & desert SW states.  

 

Weekend of Jun 26,27: while a long-way out on the charts, Sat is trending HOT, with temps possibly topping triple digits in the southern Willamette Valley, Roseburg, Medford areas.  Sunday could be - finally - the start of a period of COOL DOWN, with cooler air aloft drifting over the PNW;  resulting showers for both sides of the Cascades during the last week of Jun 2021.  

 

“You are getting old if it takes you longer to rest than it did to get tired.”  

 

 

The sound of rain will be on the wx stage the next few days.  What else?  Read on, Patron.

 

The Low pressure trough west of the coast, mentioned last week, is now in position to spin several bands of notable moisture across the PNW between now and Monday evening.  Imbedded thunderstorms should not be ruled out, esp Saturday evening.  Overall, there is a high probability for rainfall totals ranging in the 1/2" - 2” over the next 4 days in the lowlands.  We can sure use the precip.  

 

Next week will turn dry & WARM by mid-week, as temps rebound considerably, with highs topping out in the 80s in many west side OR locations; a upper 70s for Puget Sound.  That said, if the onshore breeze kicks-in strong enough (some solutions suggest this), that will tap down temps a bit, but still present dry conditions.  Friday the 18th could be in the low-to-mid 80s.  

 

Head or Tails.  Here’s where we get into a model coin flip.  Several model runs indicate that dry, warm-turning-hot conditions will prevail after our rainy period.  A few solutions bring in another round of rain/showers, keeping the region cooler, starting again next weekend.  Well, which do we go with?  Flip the coin for now.

 

  Heads -  the weekend of Jun 19,20 starts out on the warm side (80s) with increasing clouds from the NW by late Sat night and precipitation moving onshore sometime Sunday morning.  Wettest over NW WA.  On Mon Jun 21, moderate rain may work south into OR as a Low center directly over the state.  Cool air aloft could spawn thunderstorms south of Salem by Tue.  Showers continue over WA and NW OR into mid-week; past that, sun and warmth should return by late that week, into the last weekend of June.

 

  Tails - the other side of the model “coin” charts dry through the weekend of Jun 19,20 with an onshore breeze, with temperatures continuing to climb when as the following week (Jun 21-25) gets underway. Temp topping in the 90s for OR, bit cooler for Puget Sound.

 

If this has swirled your Mug too much, don’t worry, it will likely change anyway.   The bottom line:  we are going to receive a decent period of rain/showers, with warmer temps afterward.  How long that heated dry spell will last is the question.  We’ll sip through the updated model scenarios on Mon Jun 14.

 

A giggle from the ’net:  “Chocolate is vital for our survival.  Dinosaurs didn’t have chocolate and look what happened to them."