As discussed earlier this week, another cool upper level low
system will spin across the PNW this
weekend. Expect cool temps, showers here
and there, and clouds. MAJOR CHANGE in the
wx on the way.
The ridge of high pressure that we have
hoped for will begin building in mid-week.
Temperatures will warm RAPIDLY. In fact, by
Friday & Saturday many western regions of
the PNW could be into the upper 80's.
Southern Oregon will see 90's. Eastern
basins will warm considerably.
While not technically a 'heat wave' - since
that usually implies temps in the shade at
90 plus for couple of days - this could turn
out to be the hottest wx since last fall.
Models show a fast moving cold front
sweeping by sometime Sunday and Monday May
18-19, bringing in some moisture and much
cooler temps. BOOMERS possible, all areas.
By Tuesday, May 20, temps will REBOUND back
up into the high 70's - low 80's for most
west side locations. DRY and WARM through
the week. Weekend of May 24-25 should be a
bit cooler, with clouds, as a westerly flow
aloft will usher in marine air.
Overall: DRY and WARM for most of the next
2 weeks. Ag folks should pay close
attention to soil moisture, as we really
haven't had all that much rainfall the past
few weeks. The rapid warming may stress some plants, given the
seemingly eternal winter we have been
through of late. The heavy snow pack at low
elevations will begin a rapid melt - patrons
close to small streams take note!
Another round of STRONG STORMS will smash
across the mid-west this week, then middle
America may see a break in the action for
awhile. VERY HOT weather for desert SW and
much of California!
"It now costs more to amuse a child than it
once did to educate his father."
A GLORY is a delightful
phenomenon formed when light
is scattered backwards by
individual water droplets.
The light source usually is
the sun. Glories are
visible directly opposite
the sun, centered at the
antisolar point below the
horizon except at sunrise
and sunset. While an
observer’s shadow plays no
role in the phenomenon, it
provides an easy way to find
the antisolar point. This
is because shadows converge
on the antisolar point,
therefore, glories typically
accompanied by your shadow
or that of the aircraft you
are in.
Mountain climbers and folks
in aircraft see glories.
When the shadow itself is
oddly distorted by
perspective it is called a
"Brocken spectre".
The image here is that of a
brocken spectre taken in NE
England by photographer
Vincent Lowe (shown
w/permission) in February
2006. Wiki Hopegill Head
for a look at this beautiful
‘fell’.
The sky this morning
(8/31/07 8:20 a.m.)
was striking. I
simply had to
capture the image.
Cirrus clouds are
ice-crytals at
altitudes generally
>20,000 ft. Some
cirrus formations
tend to foretell an
approaching warm
front.
The latest GFS 850 mb (5,000 ft.) model chart for next
SUNDAY
morning,
April 20.
Note the
VERY COLD
AIR for
April
modeled to
move down
over the
PNW.
"Omega High"
is an
unofficial
term used in
the PNW to
describe the
shape of a
high
pressure
ridge / cell
that forms
over the
eastern
Pacific on
up into
Alaska /
Western B.C.
The shape
loosely
resembles
the greek
alphabet
letter
omega.
Noon, Nov
14, 2007:
barometric
pressure
readings
over the PNW.
Note the
isobar lines
parallel to
the coast
over Oregon.
This is what
is causing
the strong
east wind
out of the
Gorge today.
GFS model
prog for
Sunday
August 19,
2007.
WxCafe has
added H and
L, plus
lines to
delimit what
discussion
refers to as
"interaction
zone"
illustrating
the dominant
pattern this
summer.
Also, note
strong
system west
of B.C.
Step River -
flooding in
China
(photographer
unknown)
Cumulonimbus
cloud over
Lynden WA
(image by
Rufus)
French Hornet Invasion
Being an
entomologist, one cannot resist comment on
this story. The Vespids, hornet family of
insects, apparently entered the western
European region by 'hitchhiking' on ceramic
pottery from China. Many species of insects
have established populations in new
geographic regions of the earth by
inadvertently being transferred with the
movements of humanity. Global Warming is NOT
in play here. Conditions in Europe are
favorable for the survival and territorial
expansion of this species in the region.
Had the hornet piggybacked a ride to France
100 yrs ago, the species could still have
survived and migrated across the region. Oh
yeah, did you also hear this week that
global warming is blamed for elevating
children's fevers? You get my point.
"Your sound ability to predict PNW
weather is uncanny. Your accuracy has
been shared quite a bit by my
co-workers, it has helped me in planning
trips and 'To-Do' items very well,
Thanks for the efforts!" -Portland
Oregon
"Just a quick "note" to say thank you!
Your forecasts have information of
value, but even more, they show a sense
of humor and personality. I appreciate
that in a person." -Gresham, OR
"You seem
to be the only weather person on the
continent who can intelligently predict
what's coming next. Thanks for the
website. We will definitely let OVS know
how much we enjoy the site. Hope they
keep you forever!" -Sarasota, Florida
"The more I travel and mention your
report, the more people say they have
been getting it and relying on it. You
are a great help to all of us in the
food business." -Los Angeles, CA
“Thank
you, Rufus. We speak of you as if
we know you: ‘Let’s see what Rufus
says on Monday’ and so forth. Your
work is esteemed. –Kent, WA
“It’s just
right, that is, concise, detailed enough
but not too wordy.” –Willamette Valley,
OR
“I
particularly like your forecasts because
they are not bogged down with details –
just straight and to the point with
enough humor to keep everyone
interested.” –Boring, OR
“I, for
one, really appreciate what you do!! I
actually plan my life around what you
write, and I haven’t been sorry once.”
–Corvallis, OR
Rufus - Finally a weather forecast I can
rely on to help me make better decisions for
my nursery.
Simple things like: should we take the poly
off the greenhouses today or just roll up
the sides; can we move the gunneras outside
yet, etc ... well let's go see what Rufus is
predicting.
Even when you aren't "dead-on" accurate the
trend is always just as you said and your
understanding of agricultural issues makes a
world of difference in the helpfulness of
your forecasts.
Thanks from Scappoose, OR
Dear Rufus,
I am really blown away how accurate and far ahead
your forecasts are.
Once again you announce a major weather event FAR in
advance, and the knuckleheads in the media wait
until it is upon us.
Why is that?
Over the last few years you have warned of several
major events far into advance.
Very good work!
Thanks again! -Salem, OR
Rufus graduated with
honors in Biology from California State University
Humboldt
and completed a Master’s degree in Entomology at
Oregon State.
Beginning in 1979,
Rufus has focused on developing environmentally
sound management programs for insects on small
fruits and stored grain products.
Since the early part of
his scientific career, Rufus has been an advocate
for the practical application of meteorology in the
life sciences. For nearly 30 years, he has prepared
weather forecasts for friends and colleagues.
In 1994, Rufus initiated his virtual Weather Café™.
The Weather Café™
provides uniquely informative long-range forecasts
for specific patrons in the PNW. It is a
free service for patrons from British Columbia to
northern California.
In the spring of 2005,
the Council of the American Meteorological Society
elected Rufus as a full member of the Society
– a long time personal goal.
The rapid warming may stress some plants, given the
seemingly eternal winter we have been
through of late. The heavy snow pack at low
elevations will begin a rapid melt - patrons
close to small streams take note!
Humboldt
and completed a Master’s degree in Entomology at
Oregon State. 