Friday, May 9

As discussed earlier this week, another cool upper level low system will spin across the PNW this weekend.  Expect cool temps, showers here and there, and clouds.  MAJOR CHANGE in the wx on the way.  

The ridge of high pressure that we have hoped for will begin building in mid-week.  Temperatures will warm RAPIDLY. In fact, by Friday & Saturday many western regions of the PNW could be into the upper 80's.  Southern Oregon will see 90's.  Eastern basins will warm considerably.

While not technically a 'heat wave' - since that usually implies temps in the shade at 90 plus for couple of days - this could turn out to be the hottest wx since last fall.  

Models show a fast moving cold front sweeping by sometime Sunday and Monday May 18-19, bringing in some moisture and much cooler temps.  BOOMERS possible, all areas.  

By Tuesday, May 20, temps will REBOUND back up into the high 70's - low 80's for most west side locations. DRY and WARM through the week.  Weekend of May 24-25 should be a bit cooler, with clouds, as a westerly flow aloft will usher in marine air.

Overall:  DRY and WARM for most of the next 2 weeks.  Ag folks should pay close attention to soil moisture, as we really haven't had all that much rainfall the past few weeks.   The rapid warming may stress some plants, given the seemingly eternal winter we have been through of late.  The heavy snow pack at low elevations will begin a rapid melt - patrons close to small streams take note!

Another round of STRONG STORMS will smash across the mid-west this week, then middle America may see a break in the action for awhile.  VERY HOT weather for desert SW and much of California!

"It now costs more to amuse a child than it once did to educate his father."

Second cup of coffee ready,

-Rufus
 

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A GLORY is a delightful phenomenon formed when light is scattered backwards by individual water droplets. The light source usually is the sun.  Glories are visible directly opposite the sun, centered at the antisolar point below the horizon except at sunrise and sunset.  While an observer’s shadow plays no role in the phenomenon, it provides an easy way to find the antisolar point.  This is because shadows converge on the antisolar point, therefore, glories typically accompanied by your shadow or that of the aircraft you are in.

Mountain climbers and folks in aircraft see glories.

When the shadow itself is oddly distorted by perspective it is called a "Brocken spectre".

The image here is that of a brocken spectre taken in NE England by photographer Vincent Lowe (shown w/permission) in February 2006.  Wiki Hopegill Head for a look at this beautiful ‘fell’.


The sky this morning (8/31/07 8:20 a.m.) was striking. I simply had to capture the image.  

Cirrus clouds are ice-crytals at altitudes generally >20,000 ft.  Some cirrus formations tend to foretell an approaching warm front.

The latest GFS 850 mb (5,000 ft.) model chart for next SUNDAY morning, April 20.  Note the VERY COLD AIR for April modeled to move down over the PNW.

"Omega High" is an unofficial term used in the PNW to describe the shape of a high pressure ridge / cell that forms over the eastern Pacific on up into Alaska / Western B.C.  The shape loosely resembles the greek alphabet letter omega.

Noon, Nov 14, 2007: barometric pressure readings over the PNW.  Note the isobar lines parallel to the coast over Oregon. This is what is causing the strong east wind out of the Gorge today.

GFS model prog for Sunday August 19, 2007.  WxCafe has added H and L, plus lines to delimit what discussion refers to as "interaction zone" illustrating the dominant pattern this summer.  Also, note strong system west of B.C.

Step River - flooding in China
(photographer unknown)

Cumulonimbus cloud over Lynden WA
(image by Rufus)

French Hornet Invasion

Being an entomologist, one cannot resist comment on this story. The Vespids, hornet family of insects, apparently entered the western European region by 'hitchhiking' on ceramic pottery from China. Many species of insects have established populations in new geographic regions of the earth by inadvertently being transferred with the movements of humanity. Global Warming is NOT in play here. Conditions in Europe are favorable for the survival and territorial expansion of this species in the region.

Had the hornet piggybacked a ride to France 100 yrs ago, the species could still have survived and migrated across the region. Oh yeah, did you also hear this week that global warming is blamed for elevating children's fevers? You get my point.


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"Your sound ability to predict PNW weather is uncanny. Your accuracy has been shared quite a bit by my co-workers, it has helped me in planning trips and 'To-Do' items very well, Thanks for the efforts!" -Portland Oregon

"Just a quick "note" to say thank you! Your forecasts have information of value, but even more, they show a sense of humor and personality. I appreciate that in a person." -Gresham, OR

"You seem to be the only weather person on the continent who can intelligently predict what's coming next. Thanks for the website. We will definitely let OVS know how much we enjoy the site. Hope they keep you forever!" -Sarasota, Florida

"The more I travel and mention your report, the more people say they have been getting it and relying on it. You are a great help to all of us in the food business." -Los Angeles, CA

“Thank you, Rufus.  We speak of you as if we know you:  ‘Let’s see what Rufus says on Monday’ and so forth.  Your work is esteemed.  –Kent, WA

“It’s just right, that is, concise, detailed enough but not too wordy.” –Willamette Valley, OR

“I particularly like your forecasts because they are not bogged down with details – just straight and to the point with enough humor to keep everyone interested.” –Boring, OR

“I, for one, really appreciate what you do!! I actually plan my life around what you write, and I haven’t been sorry once.” –Corvallis, OR


Rufus - Finally a weather forecast I can rely on to help me make better decisions for my nursery.

Simple things like: should we take the poly off the greenhouses today or just roll up the sides; can we move the gunneras outside yet, etc ... well let's go see what Rufus is predicting.

Even when you aren't "dead-on" accurate the trend is always just as you said and your understanding of agricultural issues makes a world of difference in the helpfulness of your forecasts.

Thanks from Scappoose, OR


Dear Rufus,
I am really blown away how accurate and far ahead your forecasts are.

Once again you announce a major weather event FAR in advance, and the knuckleheads in the media wait until it is upon us.
Why is that?

Over the last few years you have warned of several major events far into advance.
Very good work!  Thanks again! -Salem, OR

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Rufus graduated with honors in Biology from California State University Humboldt and completed a Master’s degree in Entomology at Oregon State.

Beginning in 1979, Rufus has focused on developing environmentally sound management programs for insects on small fruits and stored grain products. 

Since the early part of his scientific career, Rufus has been an advocate for the practical application of meteorology in the life sciences. For nearly 30 years, he has prepared weather forecasts for friends and colleagues.  In 1994, Rufus initiated his virtual Weather Café™.

The Weather Café™ provides uniquely informative long-range forecasts for specific patrons in the PNW.   It is a free service for patrons from British Columbia to northern California.

In the spring of 2005, the Council of the American Meteorological Society elected Rufus as a full member of the Society  – a long time personal goal.

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