Current Forecast

Friday, July 3

Super July!

As the holiday weekend continues, the heat will diminish by Sunday.  Temps should remain close to yesterday's level for all locations through Saturday (maybe a few degrees cooler Sat).  Very comfortable for firework displays - be CAREFUL for fire hazards! 
 
Sunday will begin the transition into a 'nature's cooling' program as weak upper trough develops close to coast and swings by next week.
 
There will be an increase in morning marine clouds for many western locations next week, with possibility for some scattered SHOWERS north of Olympia by later Tues - Thur.  More dust-busters than mud makers.  HEAT will actually INCREASE for a few days longer for our ID and MT patrons next week, as the ridge shifts eastward.
 
Coastal regions and inland valleys will be COOLER next week and next weekend down the entire west coast. Temperatures will SLOWLY rise again by July 15 or so for another 6 or 7 day run of warm temps.  It doesn't look as hot as the current pattern - just decent summer weather for all. Excellent berry harvesting weather!
 
Very WET pattern in store for SE U.S. gulf states over the next 10 days.
 
Happy 4th of July everyone! 

-Rufus


Patron-to-Patron Stories


The Windstorm of Dec 14, 2006
“Virtual Tips” left on the ole’ WxCafé™ counter

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Definitions of Meteorological Terms

SNOW ROLLERS:  Nature's way to "mirror" man-made bails of hay!  Cylindrical masses of snow that form when wind picks up snow moist enough to be cohesive and rolls it down a slope.  While not uncommon in mountainous or hilly regions, it is a bit unusual for this late in the year.  [Adapted from Glossary of Meteorology, AMS publication]

Snow Rollers from the PNW!  A fellow WxCafé™ patron shared this info.  Image, courtesy of Tim Tevebaugh, taken March 31, 2009.  Please, click on this NOAA link for the full story.   

HEAT WAVE: A period of abnormally and uncomfortably hot and usually humid weather.  Back in 1900, A.T. Burrows defined a 'hot wave' as a spell of three or more days during which the maximum temperature in the shade reaches at least 90 degrees F on each day.  While more recent definitions have been tailored to reflect local conditions - that is, the 'comfort criteria' is dependent on the normal conditions of the specific region, your WxCafé™ prefers to stick closer to Burrow's criteria. [Adapted from Glossary of Meteorology, AMS publication]

A GLORY is a delightful phenomenon formed when light is scattered backwards by individual water droplets. The light source usually is the sun.  Glories are visible directly opposite the sun, centered at the antisolar point below the horizon except at sunrise and sunset.  While an observer’s shadow plays no role in the phenomenon, it provides an easy way to find the antisolar point.  This is because shadows converge on the antisolar point, therefore, glories typically accompanied by your shadow or that of the aircraft you are in.

Mountain climbers and folks in aircraft see glories.

When the shadow itself is oddly distorted by perspective it is called a "Brocken spectre".

The image here is that of a brocken spectre taken in NE England by photographer Vincent Lowe (shown w/permission) in February 2006.  
Wiki Hopegill Head for a look at this beautiful ‘fell’.


The sky this morning (8/31/07 8:20 a.m.) was striking. I simply had to capture the image.  

Cirrus clouds are ice-crystals at altitudes generally >20,000 ft.  Some cirrus formations tend to foretell an approaching warm front.

The WxCafé™ Graffiti Box

DAY DEGREE thus far in 2009
Comparison of cumulative day degree heat units for January through April 30.  All locations shown are now above last year, but still far behind typical values, as exemplified by 2007 data.

Weather model (GFS) prog chart for 850 mb (5,000 ft) temps next Monday, March 9 morning.  COLD air from the north threatens the PNW yet again.

Dew Point (dp sat morning image) forecast for early Saturday morning, Dec 20.  If skies clear, surface temps can fall to or near dew point.  Model progs dp temps ranging from 5 F to 15 F OR north to WA.

Air at approx 5,000 ft (850 mb image) forecast to range from 16 F in southern OR to a very cold -15 F over Lynden.


Dew Point Sat Morning  


850 mb image         

Cumulonimbus cloud over Lynden WA
(image by Rufus)

French Hornet Invasion

Being an entomologist, one cannot resist comment on this story. The Vespids, hornet family of insects, apparently entered the western European region by 'hitchhiking' on ceramic pottery from China. Many species of insects have established populations in new geographic regions of the earth by inadvertently being transferred with the movements of humanity. Global Warming is NOT in play here. Conditions in Europe are favorable for the survival and territorial expansion of this species in the region.

Had the hornet piggybacked a ride to France 100 yrs ago, the species could still have survived and migrated across the region. Oh yeah, did you also hear this week that global warming is blamed for elevating children's fevers? You get my point.


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What people are saying about the Weather Café™

"I have been able to prepare my bee hives for up coming storms and keep them alive with the information you provide. Thank you for sharing weather reports that I trust and don't have to filter through all the media drama."  
-beekeeper in the Snoqualmie Valley, WA

"You are a focal point of our week, for all us farmers.  We quote you, celebrate or bemoan the good/bad news of weather that is to come from your uncanny weather predictions (we think you are half animal, sniffing the air and knowing what lies ahead!)  We are tickled by your beverage-speak, and the little glimpses of your life that we get in our weekly weather updates."   - Snoqualmie Valley Growers, WA

"Your sound ability to predict PNW weather is uncanny. Your accuracy has been shared quite a bit by my co-workers, it has helped me in planning trips and 'To-Do' items very well, Thanks for the efforts!" -Portland Oregon

"Just a quick "note" to say thank you! Your forecasts have information of value, but even more, they show a sense of humor and personality. I appreciate that in a person." -Gresham, OR

"You seem to be the only weather person on the continent who can intelligently predict what's coming next. Thanks for the website. We will definitely let OVS know how much we enjoy the site. Hope they keep you forever!" -Sarasota, Florida

"The more I travel and mention your report, the more people say they have been getting it and relying on it. You are a great help to all of us in the food business." -Los Angeles, CA

“Thank you, Rufus.  We speak of you as if we know you:  ‘Let’s see what Rufus says on Monday’ and so forth.  Your work is esteemed.  –Kent, WA

“It’s just right, that is, concise, detailed enough but not too wordy.” –Willamette Valley, OR

“I particularly like your forecasts because they are not bogged down with details – just straight and to the point with enough humor to keep everyone interested.” –Boring, OR

“I, for one, really appreciate what you do!! I actually plan my life around what you write, and I haven’t been sorry once.” –Corvallis, OR


Rufus - Finally a weather forecast I can rely on to help me make better decisions for my nursery.

Simple things like: should we take the poly off the greenhouses today or just roll up the sides; can we move the gunneras outside yet, etc ... well let's go see what Rufus is predicting.

Even when you aren't "dead-on" accurate the trend is always just as you said and your understanding of agricultural issues makes a world of difference in the helpfulness of your forecasts.

Thanks from Scappoose, OR


Dear Rufus,
I am really blown away how accurate and far ahead your forecasts are.

Once again you announce a major weather event FAR in advance, and the knuckleheads in the media wait until it is upon us.
Why is that?

Over the last few years you have warned of several major events far into advance.
Very good work!  Thanks again! -Salem, OR

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About Rufus La Lone

Rufus graduated with honors in Biology from California State University Humboldt and completed a Master’s degree in Entomology at Oregon State.

Beginning in 1979, Rufus has focused on developing environmentally sound management programs for insects on small fruits and stored grain products. 

Since the early part of his scientific career, Rufus has been an advocate for the practical application of meteorology in the life sciences. For nearly 30 years, he has prepared weather forecasts for friends and colleagues.  In 1994, Rufus initiated his virtual Weather Café™.

The Weather Café™ provides uniquely informative long-range forecasts for specific patrons in the PNW.   It is a free service for patrons from British Columbia to northern California.

In the spring of 2005, the Council of the American Meteorological Society elected Rufus as a full member of the Society  – a long time personal goal.

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