The WxCafe™

Raindrops Quit Falling on my Head

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 25, 2025

Friday July 25

Obviously, around the PNW, Summer months are supposed to be dry, yet a good rain here & there is refreshing (the last general rain was June 14). The rainy weekend that some model solutions projected for the first weekend of August has been shifted a few days later - if at all. Anyway, let’s take a look.

July 25 - Sunday the 27th: Pleasant weekend ahead - temps will be tapped down a few degrees as an onshore flow, under a cool upper-level Low, passes over southern BC. Sunday will likely be the warmer day.
Next week, July 28 - Aug 1: Given a S-to SE flow aloft, it will heat up again early in the week, with humidity bumping up, as well. The pattern also brings on afternoon thunderstorms over the eastern basins and the Cascades. Some of these storms could migrate out over the western valleys. Most of this action, if it develops, will take place Wed-Fri. Idaho may also pick up a storm or two.
Weekend of Aug 2,3: Now trending warmer than the previous week. Thunderstorm threat diminished.
Week of Aug 4-8: This is when models are bringing down some moisture out of the Gulf of Alaska - MAYBE. Temps will be warm early in the week, with the chance for rain - mainly over western WA - arriving Tue night on through early Fri. OR could pick up some raindrops Thu and/or Fri. This whole pattern change is quite uncertain.
Weekend of Aug 9,10: Dry with pleasant temps on Sat; turning warmer Sunday. Region could be setting up for another hot spell that next week.

—> The primary aspect of this long-range forecast is whether or not the PNW gets raindrops from a Low pressure system that may move close to the west coast from the Gulf of Alaska. Right now, we are going to call it a ‘coin toss’ — 50/50 chance. Otherwise, raindrops won’t fall on anyone’s head. Stay tuned, Patron.

“Nobody has ever been bored by someone paying them a compliment."

-Rufus

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Comfort Zone

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 21, 2025

Monday July 21

Models suggest that we are at the front end of an extended period of fairly pleasant conditions. Admittedly, for some folks, there may be too many ‘morning marine cloud’ days, but overall, the afternoon high temps look to be comfortable for outdoor activities. Will that last into early August? Let’s take a peek. Sip on.

The cool air mass that swept over the PNW this past weekend will slowly departing, leaving behind a ‘fair weather pattern’ for a couple of weeks.

This week, July 21-25: turning a bit warmer each day, with temps in the pleasant 75-84 degree range, overall. Fri the 25th will present slightly cooler temps brought on by an increasing onshore flow. Breezy afternoons.
This weekend July 26,27: A tad cooler than normal, yet pleasant. Morn’n clouds may go with your Mug start-up.
Week of July 28-Aug 1: Looking to remain on the cooler side of Summer; dry & windy afternoons, esp along the coast.
1st weekend of Aug 2025: This portion of the forecast gets dicey. Meaning, recent solutions indicate a strong ‘fall-like pattern’ of clouds & moderate rain; other runs suggest continued mild conditions & dry.

A major aspect of a fall-like pattern on the charts is the Pacific Summer High pressure dome shifting farther to the NW corner of the Gulf of Alaska. We’ll hold off on pegging such a forecast until another series of model solutions arrive.

Week of Aug 4-8: Actual outcome depends on the position of that Pacific High - wx could continue damp or remain in the summer mode, per normal. Rinse your Mug and get it handy.

It’s that time of year again —> to keep our ears alert for the ’Song of Summer' - when crickets begin to chirp their song. Sure, there are some crickets, here & there, chirping in various locations, but it is during the late July-to-Aug 13 period, that the true chorus of chirping gets underway. A great time to have young ones pay attention this detail of the PNW.

🇺🇸 “Some people wave the American flag but waive what it stands for."

-Rufus

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Classic Summer Pattern

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 18, 2025

Friday July 18

Another summer work-week has zipped by. No change in the overall wx outlook for the balance of July. We will still Mug up to The WxCafé™️ counter.

☕️Ready?

Definitely a pleasant wx weekend, with some morning marine clouds around the Puget Sound region. Highs in the 80s most places, maybe a few hitting 90 today in OR & east side.
Slowly heating up again next week, July 12-25. Temps may reach into the low 90s late week, however, most charts top afternoon highs out around 8; cooler around the Sound, per normal. We pick Thu as the warmest day.
July 26,27 weekend: looks to be a repeat of the previous weekend -> temps cooling down a few degrees. Pleasant across the entire PNW.
Week of July 28 - Aug 1st: copy-cat week - trending to mirror the previous week. Seasonal temps, no extreme heat is forecast at this time. Classic summer afternoons around the entire PNW.
1st weekend of August: trending mild, with an onshore flow holding down regional temps. A morning marine cloud deck in the interior valleys is possible.

🔺 No rain from now through at least Aug 3.

“ ‘Fairness' means someone else is deciding for you what is ‘fair’. ‘Freedom' means that YOU get to make that decision.” -Milton Friedman, Noble Laureate

-Rufus

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Dry July

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 14, 2025

Monday July 14

It looks dry for the rest of July, with temperatures being the key wx feature to forecast, so let’s give it a ‘go’.

This week, July 14-18: Today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday’s heat (Albany topped out at 98). Tue ramps temps up again, as will Wed & Thu - both of which are likely to reach high 90s or even lower 100s. Friday should moderate down a few degrees, much like today, the 14th.
Coming weekend, July 19,20: Notably cooler, with Nature’s air conditioning (an onshore flow) tapping temps down into the typical July range.
Next week, July 21-25: Indications are for the first couple days of the week to be warm-to-hot week, followed by moderating temps with an onshore flow kicking up. There could be showers over southern BC and Beliingham area late Tue night, July 22, other than that ‘maybe’ threat, no precip is expected regionally.
July 26,27 weekend: trending dry & warm.
Final days of the month: dry & warm.

That’s about it. Don’t let up on watering.

From the ’Net: “So technically, Moses is the first man to download from the cloud using a tablet."

-Rufus

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Shade Hunters

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 11, 2025

Friday July 11

Shade what? Read on.

H O T pattern setting up around the PNW, with temps likely to exceed 100 degrees in many west side locations later this week. Everyone will be hunting for SHADE to provide relief. Forecasters are speaking out about the heat to protect lives - - this level of heat can kill - - so don’t ignore the warnings & methods to protect yourself and neighbors that may not have air conditioning. Enough parenting. Here’s the scoop:

This weekend temps will reach upper 80s to lower 90s, possibly 95; a few degrees cooler around the Puget Sound, but still hot. Sunday likely the hottest. WINDY afternoons.
Next week: Mon could be a few degrees cooler than Sunday, but that will just be a short heat break. As the week progresses, triple-digits likely Wed & Thu - quite possibly could reach 103-105 in western OR. Offshore air flow. Warm nights, too. Mid-level moisture may work north along the Cascades Thu evening - thunderstorms? FIRE issues will be elevated, for sure. Turning a bit cooler on Friday the 18th.
July 19,20 weekend: not quite so hot, but still temps should climb into the upper 80s in many locations with a bit of onshore flow.
Week of July 21-25: trending broadly in the mid-80s with Wed likely the hottest day of the week. Cooling late week with a push on onshore flow and much cooler air.
Weekend of July 26,27: turning warmer, with chance for 90+ temps setting up for the following week. Too early to peg.

California temps will also be HOT, with Big Valley reaching 105-110 at times. Shade Hunters.

“Nothing wrong ever happens at the right time.”

-Rufus

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