Early Post

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Sunday November 21
Greetings, Patron.
Early Sunday post because the coast is calling - we’ll be spending a few days at the beach before Thanksgiving.  Update, per usual, on Black Friday.  For now, here’s the latest outlook.
Weak system arrives later on Monday (north to south), bringing onshore a bit of rain or showers.  By Tue afternoon, partial clearing and morning fog will return in the usual places.  Dry, foggy Wed.  
Thanksgiving:  the next system will be the beginning of another rather extended WET cycle, with moderate-to-heavy rain.  It all begins in the north Wed night, as a moisture laden front moves onshore.  Western WA & BC first on Thanksgiving Day, then the system will drape over OR, as well, overnight Thanksgiving.  Black Friday will be a wet Friday to start, drying down by late afternoon.  Don’t put the rain gear away quite yet.  More rain hits Vancouver Is & NW WA by sunrise on Saturday, and making its way into OR by Sunday morning.  This system should not be quite as wet as the Thanksgiving storm.  Still, more rain where is really isn’t wanted at this time.
A short break in the action for early the week after Thanksgiving, but the rain returns first to the northern half of Vancouver Is Monday night, and spreads to all the PNW by sometime on Tue, Nov 30.  This storm will be a drencher - from northern CA to BC.  Fortunately for BC, much of the precip will be ‘held’ as snow in the mountains.  Good placement.  WET Wed Dec 1.  A powerful Pacific storm will rapidly move in overnight Wed, bringing WIND (!) and heavy rain Wed night through Thu Dec 2.  Early yet, but models charts a Low pressure center of 974-978 mb making landfall over Vancouver Is sometime Thu night.  If verified, damaging WIND will be likely over some portion of the PNW Thu night.  Freezing levels drop Fri morning after the strong cold front passes.  Frosty Sat Dec 4, if the sky clears in your area.  
What was earlier modeled to be cold, low-snow-pattern for the first weekend of Dec may be delayed, as models are mixed - could be wet and mild, with plenty of wind that weekend, or continue to the colder wet side, with snow levels falling through the weekend, on into the following week. 
Bottom line - early Dec should be chilly, with mountain snow and the chance for snow at the lowest elevations of the season.   For now, the parameters we discussed last time are still showing on the charts for early December — 'snow cold' air mass over the Gulf of Alaska & eastern AK & the Yukon, setting up strong Pacific storms for the PNW, along with colder conditions as the month unfolds.   It will be interesting to watch what actually develops. (We postponed the La Nina discussion until Fri.)
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!  Stay safe and have a good time.
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