The Weather Cafe ® by Rufus

Written by Rufus La Lone since 1994.

Leave Spring Alone

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday March 27
The month will wrap up this week, but Winter will not leave Spring alone quite yet.   Get that morn’n Mug ready.  Here goes — 
Yes, we have another unusually cold system coming back into the PNW to end this week, and start April.  More on that in a bit.  Today & Tue there is a very strong storm developing west of the Oregon coast.  A storm that would cause wind damage, were it to track west and make landfall over Oregon.  However, as mentioned in our last report, the system will deepen rapidly to a center pressure of ~978 mb, then track south - off the coast - toward California over the next 24 hours.  The associated rain field will wet southern OR and rush south across CA as the week progresses.  
For the rest of the PNW, we can expect a shower here & there south of Portland - maybe - and dry conditions setting up for Tue afternoon, Wed & Thu.  An EAST WIND will really get noticed later today & Tue, both for the Columbia Gorge and the Fraser Gap and down the Cascades passes.  Short-term event, though.  The powerful Pacific storm will literally spin down the CA coast, with rain & wind; the farther south it goes, the weaker PNW east winds will get. Temps for our region will be on the cool side, but at least it will be DRY.  
Winter returns to Spring.  What seems like a weekend affair, another COLD winter-like system will move in from the NW on Fri, the last day of March.  This system would bring snow to the surface were this Jan or Feb.  Instead, we can expect thunderstorms, hail, snow/rain mix, wind gusts, rain - yeah, it all, as the cold air moves in April Fool’s Day.  No joke.  It will be much like last weekend.  Daily ‘rapid lift’ picturesque clouds & potential for thunder/lightning & hail should last through Mon Apr 3.  The cold air will seep into portions of northern CA, too, so they can expect a frost risk early next week in the Big Valley (not good for tree crops).  Tue & early Wed next should be dry, turning a tad warmer, as well.
By overnight next Wed, Apr 5, moderate-to-heavy rain will return to the PNW.  This storm will not carry quite the cold air pack, but still, more snowfall over the Cascades and blustery wx for a day or so.  We have asked politely for Winter to leave Spring alone to no avail.  What was to be our Spring Weekend (Easter - April 8,9) is now trending to start off with another cold system on Saturday.  Enough already!  Easter Sunrise should be partly cloudy; CHILLY.  The rain should let up by Easter.   Better relief is on the way.
The pattern for the week after Easter is looking just plain awesome.  Spring will finally kick out the seasonal door.  Temps in the 60s & 70s are on the charts, as a ridge of High pressure builds over the west coast on Mon, Tue & Wed.   Long overdue.
“It’s not too early to start planning what you’re going to do wrong with your garden this year."
Copyright © 1994-2023 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Winter Feeling

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday March 24
The feel of a seemingly everlasting Winter is back.  Snow mixed with rain at the surface, or just plain snow if you move up a few hundred feet.  Yikes.  Anyway, the very cold air aloft for late March will make for a chilly weekend.  That said, expect heavy snow/hail/rain showers at times, with a crack or two of thunder, esp today through Saturday.  Travel east or west will require traction devices to stay safe.  Sunday should shift to a drier mode, esp by the afternoon.  
Monday also is charting dry.  HOWEVER, not so for southern & SE Oregon, which will be clipped with rain from the ‘top edge’ of a very strong storm that will SWEEP the entire state of California Monday & Tuesday.  Oh the woes & damage to California!  The storm we mentioned in our last report took 5 lives and brought havoc this past week.  Next week will see another news-making, damaging storm sweep across the state from north to south, into Baja.  Heavy rain and WIND!   As noted, the PNW will miss out on this system, except for the southern portions of OR (and maybe a shower or two north to Salem on Monday).
Around the PNW, it will be DRY on Tue, Wed, Thu next week.  Hurray!  Overnight Monday into early Tue, a notable east wind will kick-up out of the Fraser & Columbia gaps, but only for several hours.  Temps will moderate up from the chilly weekend.  'Last Call Storm’ — next Friday - the last day of March 2023 - a wet system with cold air support (very much like our current pattern) will arrive from the north, wetting the region from north-to-south into April Fool’s Day, Saturday.  Expect temps to plummet and snow levels to drop.  This system will not be quite as cold as the current one, but definitely winter-like to end March.  Snow in the coast & Cascades ranges, along with the chance for thunder & hail in the lowlands.
By Sunday, Apr 2, chilly showers will diminish during the day, with a dry Mon to start the next week.  One more.  Yep, another storm will arrive in the PNW on Tue Apr 4 wetting the region for a couple of days.  
🌸🌼🪴 Right now, though, we see a WARMING pattern starting Thu Apr 6 and building into the weekend of Apr 8,9.  Temperatures will likely pop into the 60s, maybe even tease out a few low 70s across southern OR.  Spring, finally!!  
“Washington is recalling all the dollar bills.  There’s a defect in the value."
Copyright © 1994-2023 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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The Stall

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Spring Equinox 2023
As Monday springs forth (yeah, weak, but had to write it), let’s check out the model outlook for the rest of March.
Showers today will diminish as the afternoon wears on.  A strong, WET system is moving into CA by tomorrow.  Wow, another heavy rain & wind event for the Golden State.  The PNW will catch a rain-break Tue & Wed, with partly cloudy sky and sun breaks.  Temps will be a bit on the cool side.  More ‘feels like winter' precipitation arrives on Thu the 23rd.  Damp & quite chilly for March, with snow levels dropping below the passes yet again.  Breezy.  Fri and Sat should be more dry than wet; continued cooler than normal.  The Low pressure center that we expected on Sunday Mar 26 is now modeled to remain offshore, tracking south towards - you guessed it - California and then truly ’stall out’ for almost a week off the coast.  
The Stall.  Several surface fronts will spin off the large trough of Low pressure that is charting to park off coast of northern CA for the entire last week of March.  Net result for the PNW will be mostly dry over WA, BC & ID on Monday & Tue next week; rain and/or showers over OR.  A band of moisture spinning off that Low may track north into WA & eastern basins, including ID on Wed Mar 29.  
On Thu, the CA Low will be re-enforced by another Low dropping in from the Gulf of Alaska, which will continue to ‘hold’ a trough off the CA coast as the month of April gets underway.  For the PNW, some moisture may move onshore Thu the 29th, as that second Low merges with the stalled one noted above.  It should turn dry again by Fri the last day of March.
April Fool’s Day - looks VERY WET for California.  Moisture from the parked Low will also spin north into OR & WA on Sat Apr 1.  Wet again around our region on Sunday the 2nd, as well.  We see showers diminishing by Monday Apr 3rd as the seemingly forever wet system off CA finally fills in and ends the drenching of CA.  Long way out, but it looks relatively dry Mon, Tue, Wed as the first week of April ticks by.
Of course, the stalled out Low pressure trough could hold position a bit farther north, which would bring lots of rain to the PNW.  That has not been consistently charted, so we’ll go with the forecast above.  Overall, a chilly start for the Spring of 2023.
From the ’Net:  “Little known fact: Before the crowbar was invented, crows simply drank at home."
Copyright © 1994-2023 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Cold Start

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

St. Patrick’s Day 2023
Green is showing.  Yes, the warmth of the past couple of days is bring’n on the green of Spring.   No green coffee in this Mug ☕️.
Pleasant pre-Spring weather will last through Saturday, then the next wet pattern returns mid-weekend.  A stretched, weak system will bring clouds & showers to the entire west coast on Sunday.  Not a super wet one.
The first day of Spring - Monday - will be damp, as the ’stretched storm’ noted above slowly works east.  On Tue, moderate-to-heavy rain will hit CA again - mainly south of the Bay area into Baja; the PNW should be mostly dry, with a stray shower.  Cool.  Same for Wed Mar 22.  The next wet system for the PNW arrives on Thu the 23rd and unfortunately, it will be the harbinger of another COLD pattern across the PNW.  Yes, low elevation snow (for March), cold rain, showers, and potential thunderstorms - with hail - will be in play from Thu on through the last weekend of March 2023.   In fact, if model solutions verify, Sunday the 26 could be quite stormy and ‘winter like’.  Oh my.
The pattern mentioned above, is setting up to mirror the past couple of cold cycles we have experienced since early Feb.  High pressure ridging far to the west over the Gulf of Alaska opens the door for cold systems to ’slide down the east margin of the ridge (dome)’, drawing cold, Canadian / Arctic source air over the eastern Pacific, for chilly, low-snow weather.  Sound familiar?  With the sun angle higher in the sky, ‘lift’ of the cold surface air gets magnified considerably, setting up thunderstorms, hail, gusty winds and lots of mountain snow above 1,000 - 2,000 ft.  That may be the pattern for Sat Mar 25 - Wed Mar 29.  During that same period, the battle zone between warm & cold air will over southern OR & northern CA — Patrons in that region will have heavy rain / snow & messy travel conditions.
It looks like a warmer, west origin Pacific storm will move onshore by Thu Mar 30, for more Spring rain around the PNW and seasonal snow in the higher terrain of the Cascades.  The pattern for April Fool’s Day (Saturday) has been mixed - either wet, showery or mild and dry.  Let’s wait on this foolish outlook.
“If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.” -George Bernard Shaw (born in Dublin Ireland)
Copyright © 1994-2023 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Just A Few

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday March 13
Consecutive rain-free days?  Yep, just a few.  Looks like 3 or 4 are showing up on the charts.  Refill your Mug and let’s check the outlook together.
Wet most of today, then drying out this evening as the current front zooms its way east.  The good news is that, other than a few showers overnight Tue into early Wed (mainly over the Puget Sound), the region should dry out the rest of the week.  The system we saw on the charts for St Patrick’s Day essentially gets pushed into overnight Fri into Sat, with its main impact on northern CA and southern OR.  Showers expected this Sat around the PNW.  Again, no widespread rain to speak of from Tue through Fri.  Temps will remain on the cool side, making it harder to dry out the land, but at least we get a rain-break.
The big story this week will be yet another POWERFUL Pacific storm slamming into already drenched & damaged California.  The system will hit all of the state, but the heaviest rain (AND WIND!) will fall over the Bay area, south into LA & San Diego, as well as the Big Valley & Sierra Range.  Heavy rain over the southern portion of CA has the potential to wreak havoc.   The “top” edge of that same storm will clip NE OR and ID, mainly as a snow event.
Back to the PNW.  Sunday Mar 19 of the coming weekend looks dry, mild.  Rain returns the 1st day of Spring 2023.  Three cold fronts are modeled to pass during the week of Mar 20 - 24.  The chilly, windy systems should arrive every other day through the week, on into the last weekend of March.  Good snowpack.  Unfortunately, CA will be hammered again the first week of Spring.
An economist in Los Angeles recently completed writing a book titled "The Short Story of Money’’. The book contains only seven words.  "Here it is and there it goes."
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