New week.  Same forecast.  Fresh Mug full.  All set?

Our tag line covers it well —> periods of frost & fog in the morning hours will be the rule through the end of January.  Sure, a small chance for a tad of precip, esp in the hills; nothing notable.  Dry City.

WINDS in southern Cal are kicking back up again through mid-week; they will diminish by Thu.  Not too much easterly flow around the PNW, which is a small adjustment from our last report.  Still dry.  

Colder air will gradually seep in from the NE this week as another block of cold, Arctic air descends into the US from the interior of Canada, setting up bitterly cold air across much of the Nation east of the Rockies.  Burrrr.   Dry weekend for us, Jan 18,19 - colder than this past weekend, for sure, with a moderate east wind drawing cold air to the west side.  Overnight lows in the 20s probable west side.

The week of Jan 20 is trending DRY but with increasing east winds around the PNW, although not super cold.  Rather bland, if you will.  The wind will decrease the change for foggy bottoms.

Weekend of Jan 25, 26 looks to be a possible ’turning point’ relative to the PNW getting into a truly winter mode.  Meaning: models hint at a modified Arctic air mass beginning to impact the PNW during the final days of January 2025.  We understand — is this another false start?  No one knows for sure; we report what may be possible, then wait out the ‘great reveal’.  Anyway, there have been several wx model geeks discussing the potential for a very cold February around these here parts.  With our Mugs in hand, we just PONDER the possibilities.  Anywho, expect temps turn colder as the week of Jan 27 progresses.  Flurries in the eastern basins.

Drat, the outlook for The White has changed.  Figures.  Let’s see what happened.  Hot Mug time.

As expected, this morning presents a rapidly moving cold front yielding some rain across the PNW.  After a mild week, temperatures will be notably cooler this weekend, and it will be DRY.  Good shot of snow in the Cascades.  

Week of Jan 13-17:  DRY.  —> High pressure will begin to rebuild across the region, as will a very large High pressure dome centered over eastern ID & northern UT.  So what, you ask?  Well, the strong ‘fire winds’ in CA will subside this weekend, BUT return again as the High pressure dome re-establishes.  Monday through Wed, east winds will begin in the Columbia Gorge (and to a lesser extent, the Fraser Gap); dangerous in CA.  By the end of the week, the winds will weaken.  The end of next week should be a little milder.

Weekend of Jan 18,19 - DRY, but turning cooler again, as cold air mass drops into the lower 48 out of Canada.  The PNW will get a ’sliver’ of this cold air, so eastern basins will be colder (not Arctic cold).  Models have ‘erased' the Low coming down the BC coast offering us a snowy outcome.  Such is the choice of Nature.  Bitter cold air moves out across the heartland, setting up a winter storm in the east.  On Inauguration Day, it will be bitterly cold in the Nation’s Capitol, but sunny. 

Week of Jan 20-24: DRY all week in the PNW.  East wind possible late week out of the ‘Gaps’, although NOT a cold outbreak.

Overall, the long-range outlook is DRY for the rest of January 2025.  Today’s rain might be it for the month. 

Say what?  Well, it is a couple of weeks out, but long-range model runs are coming around to a major winter event in the PNW.  Ponder time now, planning time coming soon, should the model’s verify.  Let’s Mug-start the discussion now.

The incessant rainy period of late has ended.  Yes, we will get a shot or two of precipitation over the next several days, but durations will be limited.  That said, expect a quick-shot of showers overnight this Tue, only if you live NW WA / Vancouver area.  The next threat for rain will be more widespread and arrive overnight this Thu into early Fri Jan 9.  This system will be organized, presenting rain west side, freezing rain and snow east side; several inches of snow in the Cascades.  

Other than the shots of precip mentioned above, we are on track to remain DRY through roughly Thu night Jan 16th.  Overall temperatures will be fairly moderate until just before the Jan 16-17 storm arrives.  Then, LOOK OUT for SNOW!!  

⚠️ Seriously, model runs suggest that the cold front on Friday Jan 17 will usher in SNOW at the surface across the PNW.  

Much colder air is charting to infiltrate the region - via the typical Fraser & Columbia Gaps - during the weekend of Jan 18,19.  Concurrently, moisture will ride up from the south, setting up a notable SNOW EVENT late Sunday Jan 19 into early Inauguration Day, Mon Jan 20.  The heaviest snowfall is currently targeting western OR.  (We’ll deal with how much snow, should all of this continue to verify.)

Around Tue Jan 21, a VERY cold Arctic Blast is looking possible for the PNW — the coldest temps in quite some time.  We will need to monitor THIS possible outcome closely.  As of now, temps in the single digits are pegged for mid-week, Jan 22.  Furthermore, another push of moisture from the SW may arrive late week, Jan 22-23, for a real messy snow storm — putting more snow on top of what will already be ‘placed’.   Oh my.

Again, PONDER all of this mid-Jan winter stuff for now, but should we see continued verification of such a series of winter events, planning for travel, school closures, etc will be prudent.  Keep that Mug handy, Patron!

Well 2025, here we go - - - -  ☕️.   Lots of Patrons have been asking when will it stop raining?  An antsy, fidgety lot!  With Mug in hand, we have reported that an extended dry spell was charting for early January.  The good news is that the prognostication stands.  Patience!  Let’s take a look.

Rain on & off through the weekend, with showers and sun breaks possible both days.  Sunday continues to chart as the drier of the two days.  Another quick-shot of rain is likely overnight Sunday, mainly focused on southern OR.  Late Sunday night a brisk east wind will start gushing out of the Fraser & Columbia Gaps, as colder air mass settles into the eastern basins.  (Strong east wind through the Sierra Mtn passes in CA, as well.)  This will NOT be a direct Arctic Event, just the far westerly & “warmer" edge of the bitterly cold continental air mass descending across much of the lower 48, east of the Rockies.  Interestingly, the atmospheric ‘wave’ of Low pressure moving through the PNW today will ‘reform’ as it crosses the Rockies, setting off a major winter storm for the Midwest this weekend. 

Back to the PNW.  High pressure will drop east of the Cascades, as stated (yes, the ‘parent High’ was a Yukon Dome of >1040 mb), with chilly & breezy days west side; colder to the east.  Temps will be seasonal for January.  As the week of Jan 6 through 10 progresses, the Gap winds will weaken in the Fraser Gap and strengthen in the Columbia Gorge.  DRY all week, with limited fog issues because of the wind.  

Continued DRY during the weekend of Jan 11,12.  The Gap winds will stop as an onshore flow begins.  That pause will be brief before another High pressure dome drops southward out of the Canadian interior (NOT a ‘Yukon Dome' 1040 mb marker, though), ushering in a slightly colder air mass than the event this coming week.  Frosty mornings & cooler afternoon temps return west side for the Jan 13 through 17 week.

Bottom line:  The much anticipated DRY spell should last for 12 days.  Dare we believe?

The end is near.  What will the weather machine produce as 2025 gets started?  We’ll Mug up and make the attempt to foresee.  Ready?

Dry & chilly through the end of the year.  Rain will return before the clock strikes midnight on New Year’s Eve.  A chilly rain, with snow in the Cascades and even the potential for a bit of The White in the higher hills of the coast range.  Snowy east side and eastern end of the Columbia Gorge.  A second front will rapidly move onshore during the Rose Bowl game, impacting southern OR the most, with areas north of Vancouver WA not likely to get any precip.  Freezing rain possible in the Columbia Gorge early Thu morning, Jan 2, as a warm front moves northeast from southern OR.  That front will continue pushing moisture to the NE well into Fri Jan 3.  WIND will be strong from the east out of the Gaps, both Frazer & Columbia - not an Arctic cold blast, but notably windy.  The Arctic air will remain east of the Rockies.

For Fri, travel may be a mess for Patrons east of the Cascades with warmer air aloft dropping rain into subfreezing surface temps east side.  Some areas with SNOW, others with risk of freezing rain, including Bend/Redmond into John Day area.  Snow across eastern WA well into Sat Jan 4.  Overall, it will be wet west side and snowy east side throughout the first weekend of the New Year.  WINDY.  Sunday Jan 5 does present with less moisture, but not dry.  Patrons in ID, MT, WY will get a decent winter snow storm this coming weekend.  

As we have been noting for a few forecasts now, a DRY period should arrive during the week of Jan 6-10.  That said, one more wet front is charting for Mon Jan 6.  Rain & showers rapidly diminish late afternoon on Mon, then the longest stretch of DRY wx in quite some time will finally set up.  Expect morning fog, or frosty fog in colder locations, along with probable sunshine in the afternoons from Tue Jan 7 through Thu Jan 16.  Exception — Patrons in NW WA, Puget Sound, Vancouver BC region will get a quite shot of rain overnight Jan 9, then back to dry, like the rest of us.

Around the PNW, the air mass will cool a bit more by the weekend of Jan 11,12.  Again, Arctic air will remain east of the Rockies, but a small ’spill over to the west’ will chill down the eastern basins and kick-off an east wind from the Gaps.

Regionally, it will be good to let the soils dry down early in Jan.  Snow in the mountains will keep ski resorts busy, with crystal blue sky above those lifts.  Nice.