The Weather Cafe ® by Rufus

Written by Rufus La Lone since 1994.

Unsettled

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday May 20
Our wx looks unsettled between now and the start of the holiday weekend.  Here's the latest reveal on the charts. 
Today, the 20th, will be delightful & mild.  Later this evening, a system will move into the PNW from the NW.  Expect rain/showers to expand through western WA into OR before sunrise.  This is a rather wet system, as compared to the previous.  Colder air will arrive behind the steady rain later on Tue, with showers remaining in play through early Wed the 22nd.  Clearing on Wed, setting up another pleasant, although COOL, Thu with sunshine at times.  Unsettled conditions return overnight Thu, for a ‘repeat’ of the pattern early this week.  Rain/showers arrive, north-to-south, for a damp & unseasonably chilly Fri the 24th.  
Memorial Day Weekend:  While the showers will decrease overnight Fri, Sat may have a few lingering showers, esp over the Puget Sound, along with cloudiness.  Still, Sat of the holiday weekend should present as generally dry.  Sunday & Mon are looking just fine, with sunshine and mild temperatures; gentle breezes.
Post-holiday week is trending dry & mild early, turning rather windy in the Columbia Gorge (from the west) later in the week, as an onshore flow increasings.  It may be a bit cloudy over the Puget Sound regions mid-week.  
The first weekend of June is trending dry & mild on Sat, with increasing clouds & chance for showers - mainly over the Puget Sound - on Sunday.
How much precip?  This week - between overnight Mon & Wed afternoon - be ready for about a half inch of rain around the Puget Sound / BC; and less than 1/4”, if that, south of Portland.  Similar amounts are expected in the ‘repeat’ pattern charting for this coming Fri the 24th.
“There is nothing like a long face to shorten one’s list of friends."
-Rufus
Copyright © 1994-2024 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Adjustments

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday May 17
The models have made minor adjustments in the long-range outlook.  We’ll do the same.  Ready?
A cool air mass moving into the NW corner of the PNW will usher in cloudiness and a few showers going through the weekend, primarily north of Chehalis to start, then a secondary ’shot’ pushes farther south over NW OR on Sunday.  Generally speaking, this will be more of a cloud event, with nominal precip.  Cooler, for sure.
The rain/showers we expected to arrive on Mon the 20th will be delayed until Tue.  This front should be a bit stronger than the weekend’s, so expect a wider area of showers, with temps dropping a few degrees cooler, esp on Wed May 22.
The good news is that we may escape any notable precip during the coming U.S. holiday weekend.  Following a mild, partly cloudy Thu & Fri, models indicate dry and slightly warmer wx for the first 3 days weekend in quite some time.  (We will post an update on Memorial Day.)
The rain that was expected during the holiday weekend is now booked to arrive on Tue May 28 and last for several hours.  In fact, it could be on/off wet over most of the PNW from the 28th through mid-day Thu May 30.  Fri the 31st looks partly cloudy, but dry.
Early June is just coming into “view” on the charts that we follow showing indications that the upper-level wind pattern suggests mild temps with the chance for rain early.  Not unusual for June.  
“When you are good to others, you are good to yourself."
-Rufus
Copyright © 1994-2024 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Moisture on the Charts

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday May 13
Four consecutive days of damp wx will return.  When?  That’s why you brought a Mug ☕️ and are ready to read on.  
The overall pattern for the rest of May is coming into ‘view’ on the charts.  To keep it simple this morning, we’ll outline the next 14-16 days below.  (For Patrons new to our forecasts, we informally consider mild temps to range from 60 - 74 degrees, warm temps 75 - 85, hot above 85.)
  • Today - Fri, May 13-17:  Dry & mild to warm, cooling by Thu with onshore wind increasing.  Partly cloudy around the Puget Sound late week. 
  • Coming weekend, May 18,19: Dry & mild.  Increasing cloudiness Sunday night, from the northwest.
  • Week of May 20-24: Cloudy & wet through Thu.  Drying on Fri to start the long holiday weekend.
  • Memorial Day Weekend, May 25-27: Mild-to-warm Sat & Sunday; increasing clouds Sunday afternoon; wet overnight into Monday.  Most of the precip will be over the Puget Sound.  Cooler on Memorial Day.
  • Tue - Fri May 28-31: Wet from roughly Chehalis north on Tue, dry elsewhere.  Potential for hot temps late that week to end the month.
“If you think education is expensive, try ignorance."
-Rufus
Copyright © 1994-2024 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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SPECIAL STATEMENT - Northern Light Show ?

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

SPECIAL STATEMENT 
May 10 2024
         (Today's forecast discussion is presented below this statement)
NOAA has issued a “Severe G4 Magnetic Solar Storm Watch" for today into the weekend of May 11,12.  This is a rare “Watch”.  It is the first such alert issued by NOAA since 2005 - before we had ‘smart phones’!  
G4’s are the second-strongest forms of geomagnetic storms - these type of solar storms can cause disruptions in communications of all types - satellite, radio, cell towers, electric power grids, GPS navigation, as examples.  “If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, ‘severe’ would be Category 4,” says SpaceWeather.com.
Patrons: given a clear sky forecast tonight & this weekend, look out for Aurora borealis (northern lights) - which may be visible as far south as northern California.
-Rufus
Copyright © 1994-2024 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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No Rain

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday May 10
Plenty of ☀️ sunshine ahead.  Refill and read on.
The PNW has finally turned the corner into an extended dry pattern.  For many locations, today and Saturday will be the warmest of the year, thus far.  Sunday will be pleasant as marine air moves onshore, tapping down temps from Sat.  West winds will increase in the Columbia River Gorge.  Some cloudiness possible over the northern Puget Sound area on Sunday.
Next week will be DRY and turning warmer again mid-week.  Good chance that temps by Thu and Fri will exceed those of the next 2 days.  It does look dry into the weekend of May 18,19, with sunshine and warm temps prevailing.  Note: temperatures May 16-18 could top the 90s in western locations.  
You guessed it ---> dry days continue through the week of May 20 - 24, setting up a potentially dry Memorial Day weekend. We’ll see.
Bottom line:  Crop irrigation systems will need to be primed for the 2024 watering season.  Good chance that we’ll not have RAIN for the next 17 days.  
“The only commodity on earth that does not deteriorate with use is knowledge."
-Rufus
Copyright © 1994-2024 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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