We still see rain ahead, with Oregon needing to wait a bit longer than our neighbors to the north.  At least all of us can have a Mug of our fav morning beverage while in waiting.  

Pleasant wx week will continue into most of Saturday.  Rain will move in over Vancouver Island later on Saturday, spreading south & east as the night progresses.  Oregon will likely get more clouds than rain, but some precip is likely, esp north of Salem by Sunday.  Notably cooler for all.  Sunshine should pop out late afternoon on Sunday.

Next week presents a change from our earlier forecast, with NO RAIN arriving, nor any wind event mid-week.  Rather, it is now trending on the models as DRY and rather warm.  Farm & construction operations will appreciate the favorable change; rake up those hazelnuts!  That said, the PNW is experiencing a significant drought cycle since last April, so the region needs fall rains to show up soon.  Anyway, Mon-Fri next week look dry, with warm temps cooling off a bit by late week.  (Exception: the northern half of Vancouver Island likely to receive additional precip on the 26th.)

Weekend of Sep 27,28:  Looking DRY & mild.  However, a system may clip WA north of Seattle with some rain late Sunday the 28th.

Week of Sep 29 - Oct 3:  Here’s when we may finally get the big shift into fall rains.  The clipper bringing rain to northern Puget Sound will shift south enough to wet the entire area from Olympia north on Mon the 29th.  Bigger changes will be taking place in the Gulf of Alaska, with a large upper-level trough forming, and a series of fronts developing to bring on wide-ranging rains to the PNW by overnight Tue Sep 30.  This large rain-field should produce rain from Eureka CA up along the entire coast of BC and the Alaskan Panhandle.  Yeah, a classic fall system.  Dare we believe?  Rain will slack off a bit Thu before picking back up on Fri Oct 3, primarily over western WA north.  Fall cool.

Oct 4,5 Weekend:  Threat for showers throughout the weekend.  Fall cool. 

Dry period for the week, with a return to periods of rain/showers likely beginning this weekend.  Mug time.

Warm today & Tue the 17th, with east winds rushing out of the Fraser and Columbia Gaps.  High pressure centered over northern ID will set up strong the relatively strong winds beginning later tonight.  Sunny & near 85 around western OR; cooler to the north.  While winds will weaken by mid-week, and temps will cool just a few degrees, no rain is forecast to arrive until Saturday.

Weekend of Sep 20,21:  Wet over most of western WA & BC; less so south of Portland.  Most of OR should just get some cloudiness.  Another system will follow on Sunday, but again, most of the precip will be over western WA/BC.  Regionally, cooler on Sunday.

Fall Equinox on Monday next week.  It should be dry Mon & Tue, Sep 22,23.  Broad area of RAIN will arrive on Wed the 24th.  The storm on Wed could be a strong one, so please be prepared for a WIND EVENT, esp the Puget Sound south to Chehalis.  This system will bring rain to most of western OR, as well.  Short break on Thu, before another weak system moves onshore Fri Sep 26.  

Sep 27,28 weekend:  Saturday should be dry with some cloudiness, but look out on Sunday —> Moderate-to-heavy rain arrives with a large system that will keep it wet well into Mon Sep 29.

Week of Sep 29-Oct 3.  Likely to be dry on the last day of Sep (Tue).  Possible arrival of yet another fall system sometime on Wed Oct 1.  Thu & Fri of that week look dry. 

🌀 Topical Tropical:  Atlantic hurricane season is in its peak now, with few mainland US threats thus far.  As you may have noticed, our previous discussion about GABRIELLA never happened, BUT it will this week.  Saharan Dust and other atmospheric attributes have tapped down notable tropical storm development; that may change as Sep ends, because atmospherics are changing.  The Gulf of America currently has a very high ‘heat content’, given the lack of strong storms that ‘mixes' surface/subsurface thermoclines (temperature ‘layers’), which would rapidly accelerate hurricane development should one move into the Gulf.  Stay tuned.  In the eastern Pacific theater, LORENA struck Mexico, with Tropical Storm MARIO now developing and possibly becoming a major RAIN PRODUCER over southern CA later this week.  

Indications are that a turn into the Fall rainy season may get started within a little less than 2 weeks.  Late season harvests may have to deal with mud, esp NW WA.  Just say’n.  

Before that, we do see a good stretch of warm, pleasant weather to get prepared, just in case.  First, though, there will be a short-shot of RAIN & showers as a fall-like system moves onshore this weekend.  Today & Saturday will be pleasant, with temps in the 70s, after the morning cloud deck clears off.  Late Saturday evening, expect RAIN to move in, starting over BC & WA first, then moving into OR on Sunday; some precip may make its way east side of the Cascades.  Cooler. temps, too.  Fire fighting will be favored by this fall-like system.

Next week is trending DRY all week, with temps likely to peg the upper 70s to low 80s in most locations.  Enjoy.  Southern BC could be a bit cloudy Wed the 17th.

Sep 20,21 weekend looks dry & mild, however, the ‘turn’ into the rainy season may begin overnight Sunday, to set up a wet Fall Equinox on Monday Sep 22 for WA & BC.

Week of Sep 22-26 presents as quite wet (inches) over western WA & BC early (much less so for OR), then the rain field widens into OR when a WINDY system arrives mid-week.  Showers Thu before a dry day on Fri the 26.

A secondary Low may form over OR, just east of the central Cascades on Sat Sep 27 - wet there and ID, but mostly dry elsewhere.  Sunday Sep 28 looks partly to mostly cloudy with chance for widely scattered showers.  Another system is modeled to ‘race’ across the Pacific and looks to be a WIND MAKER late Sunday.  We’ll see if models are accurate (given the ‘misses’ of late).  Welcome to Fall.

A real mix of wx coming up during the next 14 days, so be patient and you will likely get what you want.  For now, grab your Mug, Patron.

The expected rain for today has been delayed several hours because the Low has stalled off the coast of southern OR / northern CA.  It will spin to the NE, driving a decent amount of precipitation across primarily OR before Wed afternoon; some precip will fall under thunder & lightning.  Temps will remain cool for early September.  We still see the first couple of days of the Mt Angel Oktoberfest as dry & pleasant (O’Fest runs Thu - Sun, Sep 11-14).

The coming Sep 13,14 weekend continues to looks WET for Sat night through Sunday.  Washington State should pick up more moisture from this system vs the current one. The O’Fest crowd will hope for another rain delay, like today’s (Sep 8). 

Dry during the week of Sep 15-19, with a temperatures warming notably by late week (80s & low 90s).  Two hurricanes may have US impact as the week ends - see below.

We see the weekend of Sep 20,21 as dry and warm.

Week of Sep 22-26:  Fall Equinox occurs on Mon Sep 22.  That day, as well as the rest of the week is trending dry and pleasantly warm.  

🌀Tropical Topical:  What happened to GABRIELLE (‘GAB’)?  Well, a large portion of Saharan Dust rolled into the path of what was a developing hurricane (to be named ‘GAB’), and crushed the attributes needed for deepening.  No Go.  The name is likely to now be assigned to the next Atlantic/Caribbean system we are watching on the long-range charts - - this tropical storm may develop between west Cuba & the Yucatan Peninsula later next week, threatening landfall on one of the Gulf States around Sep 19,20.  Stay tuned.  

   Eastern Pacific Action:  KIKO will track north of the Hawaiian Islands, as it continues to weaken. ⚠️Another potential hurricane is likely to strengthen and be named LORENA (Lo-ray’-na) soon.  Hurricane tracking is always quite variable, however, latest solutions track LORENA - as a powerful hurricane - to brush the southern CA coast as it weakens and actually makes landfall near Pt Conception KIKO will track north of the Hawaiian Islands, as it continues to weaken on Mon Sep 22.  We do NOT place confidence in this particular solution, but either way, LORENA will kick-up very STRONG SURF along the southern CA coast; possibly damaging surf.  (During my high school days in Ventura, we LOVED tropical storm waves - always the biggest of the year.)  Anyway, moisture from this storm could work north into northern CA & the Bay area for quite a drenching. 

The overall circulation of upper level air flow (jet stream) is charting to “baby-shift” (a very technical term, of course) into a more Fall mode, as the month of September progresses.  So what?  Well, it means periodic deposits of raindrops are in play.  Mug up!

Scattered thunderstorms & moderate showers are in the works for the coming weekend.  Some areas will be completely missed.  Most of the precip & lightning should stay over the higher elevations, but there very well could be outbursts elsewhere, similar to the past two days.  Temps will cool off a bit each day as the weekend unfolds; still pleasant, overall.  Humidity will be up, which will help fire fighting efforts.

Next week looks to start damp, with temperature slowly warming during the week.  Most of the precip should fall Mon & Tue. Thu & Fri, Sep 11,12 chart as dry & warm.  Doesn’t look like there will be much of a breeze, coast included.  Mt Angel Oktoberfest will have fine wx conditions through Sat; let’s hope this holds.

The weekend of Sep13,14: Current model solutions bring another weak surface Low into the PNW late Saturday, with chance for showers poking into the forecast.  Less sunshine, cooler temps.  

By Mon Sep 15, the system noted above will lift into ID for a wet day there.  Eastern basins of OR & WA will likely be wet.  We see dry & WARM temps popping back into play Tue - Thu, Sep 16-18 for all of the PNW - 80s should be the rule.  Models swing another wet system right up along the PNW coast — teasing the chance for rain, but holding the precip off the coast until Fri night, and even then, the rain may target the Puget Sound north.  Breezy.  OR likely to remain dry and warm.

Sep 20,21 weekend is trending dry & warm, with another, stronger front setting up off the coast for the Fall Equinox, Mon the 22nd.  Will the following week be wet?  We’ll get a better peek next forecast.  

🌀 Topical Tropical:  Pacific hurricane KIKO continues its track towards Hawaii, however, it may weaken significantly as it approaches the state.  A circulation pattern west of Africa will likely deepen into a hurricane in the next few days.  GABRIELLE (“GAB”) will be the name. Right now, we do not see any risk landfall to the mainland US; GAB will likely turn north, becoming yet another ‘fish storm’ over the Atlantic.