After decades of dedicated service, Rufus has retired from forecasting. While there will be no new forecast posts, we are honored to preserve his extensive archive here as a testament to his remarkable contribution to our community. Thank you for being part of this journey, and please continue to explore his wealth of past weather insights below.
On the road in Santa Cruz, so delayed posting. Not much has changed in the wx outlook for the next couple of weeks, so here goes - - -
Rain / Showers on & off all this week around the PNW, and to a lesser extent, northern CA. Drying over the coming Oct 4,5 weekend, with mild seasonal temperatures.
Week of Oct 6 - 10 should start off dry, then another couple of shots of rain & showers arrives Thu Oct 9 on into early Sat the 11th. The Low that will spawn the dampness is modeled to drop south, just off the coast of OR / northern CA, as the weekend progresses, so expect the moisture to stop. That Low will settle west of the Bay Area, so showers possible there, if the system moves close enough the CA coast.
It will turn DRY and seasonally warm early the week of Oct 13-17.
We’ll be back in the home office for this Friday's update. Ciao.
Greetings from Gilroy, CA. Questions coming in about rain next week, so let’s get to the latest possibility. We are Mug ready here. You?
Dry Sep 26,27 weekend ahead, except for central Vancouver Island. Temps will remain Fall-mild.
Next week continues to present some precipitation, with a stretched out rain field approach the coasts of WA, OR & northern CA on Monday the 29th. Most areas should get a short-shot of steady rain, then showers lasting into the evening. Tue Sept 30th will begin with another system, which at this time, may hold more moisture and be centered across southern OR to start, before spreading broadly northward. Model solutions indicate deep Low pressure center (975 mb) that normally brings fairly strong winds inland, however, this time around the storm center will remain well offshore, so winds should remain minimal. Rain and shower overnight Tue. That Low will spin a secondary front over the PNW on Wed Oct 1 for additional rain/showers. By Thu the 2nd, that Low will move towards the NW corner of WA, with an increasing wind field for the Puget Sound, although not too strong. It should remain showery throughout the night, drying down on Fri Oct 3. Potato country (southern ID) will be wet mostly on Mon & Fri next week.
The PNW will catch a break in the rain action over the weekend of Oct 4,5. And, for the early portion of the Oct 6-10 week. Rain & showers will spread across the entire PNW again on Wed - Fri Oct 8-10. Colder, too. East side snow showers possible at higher elevations overnight Thu. A chilly Fri, with a widely scattered showers, will end the week.
Cumulative precipitation for the periods noted above: 1/2” to 3/4” in the lowlands west side, both WA & OR next week;then another inch or so added Wed - Fri Oct 8-10. Dry otherwise. Yes, there has been lots of variance in model runs, however, we have note moderate consistency for next week, and thus, forecast accordingly.
Heading to Monterey & Santa Cruz tomorrow. Hope to post again on Monday. Ciao.
Meteorological Fall began Sept 1; Astrological Fall begins today. Your latest forecast begins as soon as you get back here with a full Mug. Ready?
Warm week ahead, with temps climbing into the mid-80s in the Willamette Valley by mid-week; a bit cooler around the Puget Sound, as usual. Still, a decent ‘summer-like’ period to get the official Fall season started. It will cool down 10 degrees or so heading into the coming Sep 27,28 weekend, because of an increasing onshore flow. However, it will remain DRY. Rain is inching closer.
Rain Week. The closing days of September & beginning of October 2025 (week of Sep 29 - Oct 3) will be WET around the entire PNW. A series of 3 systems will begin to hit the PNW, starting over northern Vancouver Island before sunrise Mon the 29th. Steady rain from northern CA to Canada will fall by mid-day Monday. Wet all day Tue to end September. The second front of the series pushes onshore overnight Tue, with plenty of rain & showers on Wed Oct 1. The final storm front of the week arrives overnight Wed, with heavy rain as Thu Oct 2 gets started, esp. Eugene north. Drying down on Fri to end the first truly ‘fall rains’ period. Temps will be rather chilly. Of course, this detailed forecast scenario could change but, for now, plan accordingly should outdoor activities be scheduled that week. Cumulative precipitation expected during ‘rain week’ is anywhere from 1.25” to 2.5” Think Mud.
Weekend of Oct 4,5: Trending showery & cooler on Sat; drier by Sunday morning but notable chilly.
Oct 6-10 week is looking dry & warmer than the previous weekend. Rain may return to end the week. Maybe.
“Memory is the faculty that enables you to give someone most of your zip code.”
We still see rain ahead, with Oregon needing to wait a bit longer than our neighbors to the north. At least all of us can have a Mug of our fav morning beverage while in waiting.
Pleasant wx week will continue into most of Saturday. Rain will move in over Vancouver Island later on Saturday, spreading south & east as the night progresses. Oregon will likely get more clouds than rain, but some precip is likely, esp north of Salem by Sunday. Notably cooler for all. Sunshine should pop out late afternoon on Sunday.
Next week presents a change from our earlier forecast, with NO RAIN arriving, nor any wind event mid-week. Rather, it is now trending on the models as DRY and rather warm. Farm & construction operations will appreciate the favorable change; rake up those hazelnuts! That said, the PNW is experiencing a significant drought cycle since last April, so the region needs fall rains to show up soon. Anyway, Mon-Fri next week look dry, with warm temps cooling off a bit by late week. (Exception: the northern half of Vancouver Island likely to receive additional precip on the 26th.)
Weekend of Sep 27,28: Looking DRY & mild. However, a system may clip WA north of Seattle with some rain late Sunday the 28th.
Week of Sep 29 - Oct 3: Here’s when we may finally get the big shift into fall rains. The clipper bringing rain to northern Puget Sound will shift south enough to wet the entire area from Olympia north on Mon the 29th. Bigger changes will be taking place in the Gulf of Alaska, with a large upper-level trough forming, and a series of fronts developing to bring on wide-ranging rains to the PNW by overnight Tue Sep 30. This large rain-field should produce rain from Eureka CA up along the entire coast of BC and the Alaskan Panhandle. Yeah, a classic fall system. Dare we believe? Rain will slack off a bit Thu before picking back up on Fri Oct 3, primarily over western WA north. Fall cool.
Oct 4,5 Weekend: Threat for showers throughout the weekend. Fall cool.
“A conference is nothing more than an organized way of postponing a decision."
Dry period for the week, with a return to periods of rain/showers likely beginning this weekend. Mug time.
Warm today & Tue the 17th, with east winds rushing out of the Fraser and Columbia Gaps. High pressure centered over northern ID will set up strong the relatively strong winds beginning later tonight. Sunny & near 85 around western OR; cooler to the north. While winds will weaken by mid-week, and temps will cool just a few degrees, no rain is forecast to arrive until Saturday.
Weekend of Sep 20,21: Wet over most of western WA & BC; less so south of Portland. Most of OR should just get some cloudiness. Another system will follow on Sunday, but again, most of the precip will be over western WA/BC. Regionally, cooler on Sunday.
Fall Equinox on Monday next week. It should be dry Mon & Tue, Sep 22,23. Broad area of RAIN will arrive on Wed the 24th. The storm on Wed could be a strong one, so please be prepared for a WIND EVENT, esp the Puget Sound south to Chehalis. This system will bring rain to most of western OR, as well. Short break on Thu, before another weak system moves onshore Fri Sep 26.
Sep 27,28 weekend: Saturday should be dry with some cloudiness, but look out on Sunday —> Moderate-to-heavy rain arrives with a large system that will keep it wet well into Mon Sep 29.
Week of Sep 29-Oct 3. Likely to be dry on the last day of Sep (Tue). Possible arrival of yet another fall system sometime on Wed Oct 1. Thu & Fri of that week look dry.
🌀 Topical Tropical: Atlantic hurricane season is in its peak now, with few mainland US threats thus far. As you may have noticed, our previous discussion about GABRIELLA never happened, BUT it will this week. Saharan Dust and other atmospheric attributes have tapped down notable tropical storm development; that may change as Sep ends, because atmospherics are changing. The Gulf of America currently has a very high ‘heat content’, given the lack of strong storms that ‘mixes' surface/subsurface thermoclines (temperature ‘layers’), which would rapidly accelerate hurricane development should one move into the Gulf. Stay tuned. In the eastern Pacific theater, LORENA struck Mexico, with Tropical Storm MARIO now developing and possibly becoming a major RAIN PRODUCER over southern CA later this week.
“Often people who think before they speak don’t speak."
