The Weather Cafe ® by Rufus

Written by Rufus La Lone since 1994.

Not Too Bad

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday August 25
Thunderstorms woke many up around western OR & SW WA early this a.m.  Let’s take a peek at the last days of summer 2023 before school starts.
There could be a few thunderstorms develop along the Cascades yet this weekend, but otherwise, expect warm-to-hot temperatures.  Low pressure trough offshore from OR will help to elevated temperatures - western OR should top in the 90s, esp Sunday; a bit cooler over the Sound, of course.  
Next week is trending COOLER with a chance for showers - primarily over the Puget Sound north - because the weekend Low will shift eastward over the PNW.  Tue through Thu could present some of the coolest afternoons in quite some time - for all of the PNW.  It will begin to warm a bit on Fri Sept 1, setting up a decent holiday weekend to end ’summer’.
Earlier we saw the models suggesting a heat-up (high 90s+) for Labor Day weekend, but now the trend is for MUGGY conditions with warm temps mostly in the 80s-low 90s during the extended holiday weekend.  There is a possibility for broadly scattered thunderstorms overnight Sunday into Labor Day, Sept 4, as a weak Low positions itself just west of Brookings, rotating mid-level moisture into the PNW.  We’ll see if this verifies.  
Showers & thunderstorms from the Low will circulate north into WA as the short, ‘back-to-school week gets underway. Sept 5-8 is looking cool in regards to temperatures, because a cool High pressure dome (weak) is charting to drop in from the Canadian interior, for ‘fall-like’ temps that week.  
Overall, the last week or so of summer before school starts is looking decent, with a scattering of 90 degree days and cooler afternoons, as well.  The Sept 9,10 weekend following Labor Day is trending warm & dry.  
“Arthritis was nature’s first primitive effort to establish a weather bureau."
Copyright © 1994-2023 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →

Pleasant August Ending

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday August 21
A few adjustments in the long-range outlook since our last report.  Still, a generally pleasant last couple of weeks for Aug 2023.  Mug up, Patron.
Very unusual for clouds & rain to flow over OR from a pacific hurricane, but such is the case last night & this morning.  HILARY brought on flash floods, heavy rain to Baja, S. Calif., NV, and yes, moderate-to-heavy rain from John Day east into western ID.  To top it off, a moderate 5.1 earthquake rocked Ventura County, CA - your host graduated from Ventura High School in ’71.  
For the PNW, this week will be mild with periods of cloudiness over the Puget Sound and southern BC (a shower possible Tue) and mostly sunny for OR, after the HILARY moisture moves off.  It will warm up the last 2 days of the week, with temps in OR likely to top into the upper 80s or even the low 90s, esp Fri.  The coming weekend looks warm - 80s mostly - for nearly all of the PNW; warmer east side, per normal.
The last week of August is still trending pleasant, with a short cooling trend for a couple of days before the extended Labor Day weekend.  Showers will be possible from the Puget Sound north next Tue & Wed.  
Labor Day weekend:  summer may return in force, with another notable HEAT WAVE to start September 2023.  Models are indicating a classic heat build-up into the PNW from CA beginning Sat Sept 2.  We do see the possibility for high 90s to low triple-digit readings west of the Cascades Sunday & Labor Day, Sept 3,4.  If this verifies, it would set up a 5-6 day PNW heat wave, with 90+ temps lasting until Wed or Thu, Sept 6,7. We’ll keep tabs on this as the dates near.  Hopefully, it will not be so hot.
From the ’Net: “The most dangerous drinking game is seeing how long I can go without coffee.”  
Copyright © 1994-2023 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →

Cool Finish

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday August 18
The remainder of August is trending much cooler than the past several days, to the relief for many.  Let’s refill our Mugs and look ahead.
Cooler air is pushing into the PNW, setting up a pleasant weekend to be outdoors.  Strong westerly wind in the Columbia Gorge today.  Temps around the region will warm a few degrees by Sunday, with a diminishing westerly wind.
🌀 There is much talk in the news about the potential for remnants of an eastern Pacific hurricane - named HILARY - to bring excessive rainfall to portions of southern CA & NV, along with an outside chance for some precip into the eastern basins of the PNW, along with ID.  Currently, HILARY is a Cat 4 storm.  It will weaken as it makes landfall at some point in northern Baja or San Diego region, before bringing along huge mid-level amounts of moisture into the SW US.  Inches of rain & flash flooding possible in southern CA & NV.  It is unusual for a tropical storm to strike southern CA - if the system reaches the San Diego area with winds over 35 mph, it will be the first in over 8 decades to do so (Sept 1939). 
Back to the PNW.  Next week will start out with some clouds and possible HILARY-sourced showers/thunderstorms across the eastern basins.  Most of the week will be seasonally pleasant.  Some marine clouds possible Fri, as a weak trough of cooler air shifts south, just off the OR coast during the last weekend of August.  Currently, this trough charts too weak to usher in showers, but coastal drizzle and a marine cloud deck that burns off in the afternoons is possible through the Aug 26,27 weekend.  On the cool side of summer, for sure.
The last week of August is trending DAMP early on, with scattered showers, esp forming over eastern OR, WA and ID.  On/off cloudiness for much of the west side through mid-week. Thu looks sunny, warmer for all the PNW.  Furthermore, another Baja hurricane is charted to form that week, with heavy impact on Cabo, but no renewed flooding threat to northern Baja or southern CA, as the system will move west and fade out by Thu. 
Labor Day weekend is just coming into view on the charts - trending cooler, with partial cloudiness for the Puget Sound; plenty of sunshine elsewhere.  
“A good place to keep your friends is out of politics.”
Copyright © 1994-2023 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →

Relief Coming

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday August 14
Yes, relief from the heat is coming soon - like this weekend.  In the meantime, cold Mugs rule.
Triple-digit temps & upper 90s on tap for just about everywhere in western OR & WA (coast excluded) for the rest of this week.  Tue will likely be the hottest day; Fri will be relatively cooler, as the pattern begins to shift towards favorable summer temperatures over the weekend.  Some record high temps for August have already been reached; more may be broken on Tue.  As noted, Fri looks to the lead the PNW into a cooler pattern for the coming weekend, as a mild, onshore breeze sets up when a cool NW air mass drops in to provide relief.   Showers or thunderstorms along the Cascades will kick-up, too, esp Sunday & Monday
The first 2 days of next week are trending cooler, with thunderstorms across the eastern basins and slopes of the Cascades, both OR & WA.  Let’s hope enough moisture reaches the surface to blunt lightning fires.  By mid-week, it will begin to heat up again, with temps back into the upper 90s in western OR on Thu & Fri; a few degrees cooler to the north.  Desert monsoon moisture will begin to ride north, setting up the classic August storm pattern over the Cascades.  Night light show is possible Fri & Sat evenings.  Some storm cells may drift over the Willamette Valley.  
The last weekend of August is currently looking seasonally warm, with thunderstorms along the Cascades.  Note: there have been a few solutions bringing showers & rain over western OR & WA that weekend.  We’ll see what verifies as the time nears.
Keep cool and safe. 
“Philosophy is a study which enables people to be unhappy more intelligently."
Copyright © 1994-2023 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →

The Furnace is Lit

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday August 11
Well, the heat-up begins.  Iced Mug time.  Here’s the latest.  
As this week ends, temps will begin to build.  For several southern OR locations, temps will top 90 degrees; the rest of the west side should run into the low 90s over the weekend, excluding the Puget Sound region.  Some OR locations may tease 100 on Sunday, esp Salem south.  Model runs have been quite consistent as to the long, consecutive stretch of 90+ days for many west side locations starting Saturday.  We see this particular heat wave extending all the way through Thu or Fri next week. The high heat event begins Monday.
Many Willamette Valley locations will likely to exceed 100 degrees Mon through Thu.  It is quite possible for afternoon temps to top out in the 103-108 range in various valley locations.  Patrons up north will also get hot temps, but we do not see a big triple-digit event north of Chehalis at this time.  Still, the overall event looks to be the hottest of 2023, thus far.  Eastern regions of OR, WA and most of ID will be quite hot, as well
Overnight lows will be quite warm - upper 60s, maybe even a 70 here & there.  For those without air conditioning (quite a high percentage in west side areas of both OR & WA, as compared the rest of the nation), fan time.
The wind: afternoon westerly winds may get quite strong, esp early on in this event, so FIRE DANGER will be extremely high.
By late Fri Aug 18, or that weekend, models chart a cooler, marine air mass pushing into the PNW, cooling temps down considerably.   Coastal drizzle possible, as well as over the northern Puget Sound.  This cool air may last into the following week - say, Wed or Thu, Aug 23,24 - before another short-shot heat-up is charting to return, although not as hot as the current pending event.
Cooler, marine air may return again during the final weekend of August, with the chance for showers later that next week.  WAY too early to book that, of course.
Stay alert for neighbors and friends that are not blessed with air conditioning, as this is likely to be one of the longer heat events around the PNW in recent memory.
“The wise man doesn’t expect to find life worth living, he makes it that way."
Copyright © 1994-2023 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
Read more →