The WxCafe™

Subtraction

Posted by Rufus La Lone on October 20, 2025

Monday October 20

Per usual, models have changed a few features of the long-range outlook; so shall we. All set? ☕️

The weekend rain has passed, as expected, with wx conditions this week matching earlier forecasts. Today, a weak system provides rain over central/north Vancouver Island, but that will pass through overnight (snow in the Coastal Mountains of BC). For the rest of the PNW, expect dry conditions through Tue before a rapidly moving front crosses western WA north, bringing rain/showers for a few hours; continued dry over OR and the eastern basins of WA & OR. Come Thu, the leading edge (warm front) of the next large storm will usher in steady rain over Vancouver Island. Overnight Thu the cold front associated with that large storm will bring on moderate-to-heavy rain over the Island and on into the PNW by the morning commute on Friday. Wind will increase as Fri the 24th progresses. It will be 'Wet City' all day Friday.

The coming weekend will be a continuance of the Fri storm, with colder air moving in, increasing winds and plenty of rain through all of Saturday. By Sunday morning, the winds should diminish along with the steady rain; Sunday could end up chilly, but mostly dry. Snow in the Cascades will be the heaviest of the season, to date. Travelers beware. Overnight Sunday the 26th, another fast moving front will add to the cumulative precipitation around the PNW.

Complicated. For the week of Oct 27-31, models have removed of couple of the storms we mentioned in our last report. Subtraction. Meaning, the Sunday night/Monday morning system will likely be the LAST until Thu the 30th. In place of rain, the PNW will hammered with strong east winds, because a heavy (1044 mb) High Pressure Dome will position itself over the Continental Divide, creating a powerful storm to the east —> for the upper plain states and midwest - and very strong winds over the west —> WA, OR, NV, CA, AZ. This event could be a newsmaker, should it verify. (Fortunately, the earlier rains should prevent any forest fire issues in the PNW, but NOT for the other states).

This will not be an Arctic Event around the PNW, as the airmass will not be ‘Arctic Cold’. Therefore, expect a shot of outflow from the Fraser Gap (not cold) beginning Tue Oct 28 as the 1035 mb Dome shifts to the SE towards the Continental Divide. WINDS will increase down the Columbia Gorge (powerful) and down the passes of the Cascades, both OR & WA towards the west. Northern CA will also get slammed by this wind system, so passes through the Sierra Nevada Range will be extremely windy. All that said, the winds will diminish by Thu morning, as another Pacific storm returns some rain to the PNW. A repeat storm will also arrive early Halloween morning, but not impact OR so much, as most of the precip will fall north of Portland. Good snow in the WA Cascades with this system. Breezy.

Weekend of Nov 1,2 looks DRY & mild. A drenching rain returns late Tue November 5.

From 2007, “Some people get all their mental exercise by climbing up and down molehills."

-Rufus

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Simple Addition

Posted by Rufus La Lone on October 17, 2025

Friday October 17

What’s with the tag line this time? Well, refill your Mug and get to reading - - -

Enjoy the next 24 to 36 hours of pleasant weather. We have another storm moving in this weekend; however, Patrons on Vancouver Island are likely to pick up some rain overnight Friday, then spreading over the Puget Sound region by Sat afternoon, and finally, covering the entire PNW - both sides of the Cascades & ID by early Sunday. Breezy. After a damp weekend, next week looks to start generally dry.

Monday - Wednesday, Oct 20-22. Overall, mostly dry & mild (temps in upper 50s or lower 60s) for the first 3 days of next week. However, a weak shot of showers could cross Vancouver Is. and the northern section of the Puget Sound overnight Monday into early Tue. For those counting: that’s 4 or 5 days of DRY from now until Oct 22. A large scale pattern shift will take place starting overnight next Wed, Oct 22. Sip.

Currently, the number of Pacific storms on the charts to move into the PNW from next Wed night through Sunday Nov 2 adds up to SEVEN. Yep, the up coming wx pattern may develop into the classic Oct / Nov rainy season. Be ready, as breaks between storms will be measured in hours, not days. We also see the potential for 3 WIND PRODUCERS in the upcoming series of storms. These windy storms will ’share-the-impact’ by individually hitting southern OR (Oct 26), then western OR (Oct 28), and NW WA (Oct 29). We’ll monitor closely for verification, of course. What about cumulative precipitation? Projections are for a range of 3” to 6” in the western lowlands during the Oct 22 - Nov 2 period. Leaf-fall will contribute to localized flooding, so help clear residential storm drains where it is safe to do so!

Bottom line: Adding up all of the storms charting for the balance of Oct through early Nov, we get an answer of 8. Seasonally normal rainfall.

For The Weather Café®️, we have another 2 weeks to go before the last report. In simple addition, that’s 4 more. THANKS SO MUCH for all of the kind letters. I am SO touched.

“The only thing in life achieved without effort is failure.”

-Rufus

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Announcement

Posted by Rufus La Lone on October 15, 2025

Dear Patron,

This letter serves to announce that my final weather forecast will be published on October 31, 2025.

My venture called “The Weather Café^®” began during the first week of November 1994. Interestingly, one definition of ‘venture’ (American Heritage Dictionary, 5^th Ed.), can mean, “An undertaking that is…of uncertain outcome.” Surely, forecasting weather around the Pacific Northwest can have an uncertain outcome! Over the decades, my forecasts, written in a style mirroring folks sipping morning coffee in a Café discussing weather, became increasingly popular across many sectors of PNW life. Growers, processors, businesses, schools, government agencies, and residents all provided feedback attesting The Weather Café^®provided a helpful, free community service. Thousands of Patrons inspired me to continue writing weather forecasts every Monday & Friday.

It's hard to grasp that 31 years have passed! I was 41 in 1994, literally a generation ago. We’ve had several Patrons pass away during that time, as did my first wife, Kay, after 45 years together. Other, current Patrons were not even born when this venture started. Oh, and I had a plenty of hair back in 1994, too!

Over the years, comments of appreciation from Patrons provided the incentive to faithfully publish the forecasts. That’s what makes ending this endeavor so difficult. However, it is prudent to do this on ‘my time’ and not because of a serious illness or sudden passing. I do respect how each Patron will personally take this news, and I am sorry for wanting to 'hang up my umbrella'. As I am nearly 73 years old, freeing up the many hours assigned to prepare each forecast will open up more time to enjoy full retirement. I know this will be understood.

Thanks so much for tolerating the silly grammar & date mistakes made over the years. I especially thank everyone for sharing those morning Mugs with me each week. I close with my favorite tag line: “I work best under high pressure.”

-Rufus

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Breaks in the Rain

Posted by Rufus La Lone on October 13, 2025

Monday October 13

Another week, another peek at the outlook for the rest of October. Coffee ready here.

Cool Columbus Day, with a bit of chilly wind out of the Fraser Gap today. Regionally, a chilly night ahead, but our Sunday storm has moved down into CA for this week (lots of wx issues for the Golden State from this system). For this week it looks DRY, with some sunshine, at times. Temps will not warm up quite as much as we mentioned last Fri, but low 60s possible by the end of the week. (Morning FROST possible east side through Thu, if the sky clears in your location.)

The coming weekend will start out dry & mild, then turn quite WET by Oct 19. The next storm will move over Vancouver Is after dark on Sat the 18th, then spread over the rest of the region overnight. Breezy. Again, Sunday will be damp and chilly. Snow likely above the passes.

Week of Oct 20-24 will start with cool showers that will diminish Monday afternoon leading into a dry Tue the 21st. Models indicate a WET system that will arrive Wed and continue ito Fri the 24th; however, this wet storm may limit its reach to western WA & BC. Oregon may miss out on the rain until Fri, and even then, only north of Salem and along the Columbia River Gorge.

Weekend of Oct 25,26 is trending PLEASANT on Saturday & early Sunday, before heavy rain moves in late Sunday on through the start of the following week.

⚠️ VERY WET & WINDY Mon - Wed Oct 27-29. A notable October storm period, with localized flooding possible, especially given falling leaves.

< Watch for our special announcement this Wed the 15th. >

“It’s not the ups and downs of life that bother the average person - it’s the jerks!"

-Rufus

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Both Wet & Dry

Posted by Rufus La Lone on October 10, 2025

Friday October 10

Well, the long awaited turn into a wet period has taken place. Looking forward through October, we see both wet & dry periods, with lowering snow levels, at times, in the mountain,. Oh, and we see a Mug that needs refilling. Get to it.

That cool Low pressure system, that has been ‘parked’ west of the WA/OR coast the past day or two, will finally nudge inland, continuing rain and showers, along with a possible thunderstorm, through today (the 10th) into the first half of the weekend. Another Low will move in from the NW BC coast on Sunday, with even cooler temps, more rain, and lowering snow levels.

By early Monday Oct 13 - Columbus Day - that Sunday Low will have worked its way down along the southern OR coast, setting up an outflow of chilly WINDS down the Fraser Gap, and to a lesser extent, the Columbia River Gorge. (This will NOT be an Arctic Event as the ‘Yukon Dome’ of high pressure will be well above our ‘indicator' 1040 mb depth.) Clearing, but notably chilly, most of the day Monday (upper 40s to low 50s). Shutdown or not, Columbus Day is a recognized Federal holiday, so don’t expect everything to be open. Grab a book if indoors; a sweater if outdoors that day.

The rest of the Oct 13-17 week is charting as DRY and gradually warming - - temps could climb back into the upper 60s to low 70s by Fri. Winds will diminish late Tue, so don’t be surprised to experience some foggy-bottoms later in the week. California will turn WET and rather stormy as the PNW Low is modeled to drop farther south, wetting the Golden State; some localized flooding or mudslide issues could develop.

Our next chance some precipitation arrives the weekend of Oct 18,19. No strong storm is charted, just a cold front draping over the PNW, with most of the moisture falling over southern & eastern OR on Sunday. Temps will cool down again, much like Columbus Day.

Week of Oct 20-24: Trending mostly dry, with a glancing cold front passing mainly over BC mid-week. Fall cool temps on tap. Earlier solutions brought more rain into the entire region; we’ll see what verifies. —> Possible STRONG WINDS across northern CA early that week, as a wet Low passes over Las Vegas.

Dry for the Oct 25,26 weekend, per current projections.

Note: we will be making an important announcement on October 15. Please be sure to check your email or our OVS webpage on that day.

“What the world needs is peace that passes all misunderstanding."

-Rufus

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