The WxCafe™

Soggy Second Half

Posted by Rufus La Lone on October 06, 2025

Monday October 6

Let’s get this going — grab your Mug ☕️

Warm temperatures - for October - are on tap for today & Tue around the PNW; cooler on Wed by several degrees as a weak trough (Low) begins to set up just west of the PNW coast. Not much precip associated with this mid-week pattern, but definitely a cool-down into more normal Oct temperatures (upper 50s - low 60s). The cooler, partly cloudy pattern will hold through most of Fri. East winds will be notable through the Columbia River Gorge, and Cascades passes ahead of the shift onshore mid-week. Low temps close to Frost Point around Hood River growing area until mid-week.

The coming weekend of Oct 11,12 will present another drop in temps, along with increasing showers and/or steady rain because that off-shore Low will move inland over OR. Quite possible for a skiff of snow over the Cascades. Rough estimate of cumulative precip, west side, this coming weekend is 0.2" - 0.5”.

Week of Oct 13-17 is trending mostly dry & rather cool (50s) for the first couple of days, then sometime on Wed the 15th, a RAINY PERIOD will commence, from north-to-south, and is modeled to last through the following weekend (Oct 18,19). We ’seen’ this before to now avail, however, given the time of year, this time around should verify. Lowland totals of precip this cycle could exceed 2 inches. Soggy City for the second half of October. Also, the system charting for Sat night, Oct 18 could be WINDY.

It’s likely to be mostly dry to start the week of Oct 20, then turning wet again, with decent mountain snowfall.

“Government machinery has been described as a marvelous laborsaving device which enables 10 people to do the work of one."

-Rufus

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Half Dry

Posted by Rufus La Lone on October 03, 2025

Friday October 3

Good morning, Patron. ☕️ Grab that Mug and refill for the latest peek into the outlook for the first half of October 2025.

Currently, a cool, somewhat damp pattern remains over the PNW, with an occasional shower here & there, along with fall-cool temps. By Sunday the 5th, dry & warmer conditions will arrive.

Next week will start out dry and pleasant, with temps in the 70s most locations through Wed Oct 8. A ridge of high pressure will provide the favorable weather. A weak system may arrive sometime late Thu, bringing with it cloudiness, cooler temps, and possibly some precipitation. Fri the 10th does look rather wet & chilly, at least for now (models indicate uncertainty in this system getting close enough to the coast to usher in rainfall).

Weekend of Oct 11,12: trending wet & chilly on Sat, then turning dry again Sunday for another extending period of DRY & MILD conditions.

Early yet, but it we may get a return of some rainfall by Sunday Oct 19. Therefore, the first half of October will likely be mostly dry.

“Discretion is simply leaving a few things unsaid.”

-Rufus

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Wet Dry Repeat

Posted by Rufus La Lone on September 29, 2025

Monday September 29

On the road in Santa Cruz, so delayed posting. Not much has changed in the wx outlook for the next couple of weeks, so here goes - - -

Rain / Showers on & off all this week around the PNW, and to a lesser extent, northern CA. Drying over the coming Oct 4,5 weekend, with mild seasonal temperatures.

Week of Oct 6 - 10 should start off dry, then another couple of shots of rain & showers arrives Thu Oct 9 on into early Sat the 11th. The Low that will spawn the dampness is modeled to drop south, just off the coast of OR / northern CA, as the weekend progresses, so expect the moisture to stop. That Low will settle west of the Bay Area, so showers possible there, if the system moves close enough the CA coast.

It will turn DRY and seasonally warm early the week of Oct 13-17.

We’ll be back in the home office for this Friday's update. Ciao.

-Rufus

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Some Rain

Posted by Rufus La Lone on September 26, 2025

Friday September 26

Greetings from Gilroy, CA. Questions coming in about rain next week, so let’s get to the latest possibility. We are Mug ready here. You?

Dry Sep 26,27 weekend ahead, except for central Vancouver Island. Temps will remain Fall-mild.

Next week continues to present some precipitation, with a stretched out rain field approach the coasts of WA, OR & northern CA on Monday the 29th. Most areas should get a short-shot of steady rain, then showers lasting into the evening. Tue Sept 30th will begin with another system, which at this time, may hold more moisture and be centered across southern OR to start, before spreading broadly northward. Model solutions indicate deep Low pressure center (975 mb) that normally brings fairly strong winds inland, however, this time around the storm center will remain well offshore, so winds should remain minimal. Rain and shower overnight Tue. That Low will spin a secondary front over the PNW on Wed Oct 1 for additional rain/showers. By Thu the 2nd, that Low will move towards the NW corner of WA, with an increasing wind field for the Puget Sound, although not too strong. It should remain showery throughout the night, drying down on Fri Oct 3. Potato country (southern ID) will be wet mostly on Mon & Fri next week.

The PNW will catch a break in the rain action over the weekend of Oct 4,5. And, for the early portion of the Oct 6-10 week. Rain & showers will spread across the entire PNW again on Wed - Fri Oct 8-10. Colder, too. East side snow showers possible at higher elevations overnight Thu. A chilly Fri, with a widely scattered showers, will end the week.

Cumulative precipitation for the periods noted above: 1/2” to 3/4” in the lowlands west side, both WA & OR next week; then another inch or so added Wed - Fri Oct 8-10. Dry otherwise. Yes, there has been lots of variance in model runs, however, we have note moderate consistency for next week, and thus, forecast accordingly.

Heading to Monterey & Santa Cruz tomorrow. Hope to post again on Monday. Ciao.

-Rufus

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Inching Closer

Posted by Rufus La Lone on September 22, 2025

Fall Equinox - Monday September 22

Meteorological Fall began Sept 1; Astrological Fall begins today. Your latest forecast begins as soon as you get back here with a full Mug. Ready?

Warm week ahead, with temps climbing into the mid-80s in the Willamette Valley by mid-week; a bit cooler around the Puget Sound, as usual. Still, a decent ‘summer-like’ period to get the official Fall season started. It will cool down 10 degrees or so heading into the coming Sep 27,28 weekend, because of an increasing onshore flow. However, it will remain DRY. Rain is inching closer.

Rain Week. The closing days of September & beginning of October 2025 (week of Sep 29 - Oct 3) will be WET around the entire PNW. A series of 3 systems will begin to hit the PNW, starting over northern Vancouver Island before sunrise Mon the 29th. Steady rain from northern CA to Canada will fall by mid-day Monday. Wet all day Tue to end September. The second front of the series pushes onshore overnight Tue, with plenty of rain & showers on Wed Oct 1. The final storm front of the week arrives overnight Wed, with heavy rain as Thu Oct 2 gets started, esp. Eugene north. Drying down on Fri to end the first truly ‘fall rains’ period. Temps will be rather chilly. Of course, this detailed forecast scenario could change but, for now, plan accordingly should outdoor activities be scheduled that week. Cumulative precipitation expected during ‘rain week’ is anywhere from 1.25” to 2.5” Think Mud.

Weekend of Oct 4,5: Trending showery & cooler on Sat; drier by Sunday morning but notable chilly.

Oct 6-10 week is looking dry & warmer than the previous weekend. Rain may return to end the week. Maybe.

“Memory is the faculty that enables you to give someone most of your zip code.”

-Rufus

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