🌹 Valentine’s Day 2025

The PNW is just about done with subfreezing temps, snow, freezing rain, sleet — Winter.  Normal, relatively mild temps, with periods of rain and mountain snow, should round out the rest of February.  Mug up.

Snow & freezing rain issues this morning across the region.  By Valentine’s Day afternoon, temps will begin to moderate, melting the ice and slowly allowing a return to normal outdoor activity.  The usual cold spots will be slower to moderate -- Columbia Gorge, the far NW corner of WA and eastern basins.  Saturday should be mostly dry until late day, when the leading edge of a Pacific system - RAIN - moves onshore overnight into Sunday.  Moderate temps.

Next week is trending wet, with a series of Pacific storms moving onshore, spaced apart by merely a few hours.  Tue looks to be the drier of the 5 work days next week.  

The weekend of Feb 22,23 no longer charts as dry & mild; rather, it looks wet, esp for western WA & southern BC.  South of Eugene should remain mostly dry that weekend.  

Week of Feb 24-28 looks mostly dry after Monday, with Wed likely to be quite mild.  Southern OR could get some showers Thu from a system wetting northern CA.  We see RAIN returning late Fri Feb 28 to end the month.  March looks to start out wet.

Only another week of cold temps, then a return to mild conditions around the PNW.  First, though, winter has one more act to present.  All set?  Mug on.

All weather eyes on the quick shot of modified Arctic air that is set to descend into the PNW.  A cold dome of High pressure - >1040 mb - is making its way out of the interior of Canada, as we script this forecast.  Cold, very low Dew Point air, will rush out of both the Fraser & Columbia Gaps, pooling west of the Cascades (upper teens, lower 20s Wed morning).  All that will be needed is moisture.  Well, as advertised, a system will move in from the SW Wed night with enough moisture to create a real winter mess, esp in western OR.  

We will forecast SNOW - about 1" to 1.25” as probable south of Salem, before FREEZING RAIN begins topping the thin snow layer.  Commuting Thu morning and on through the day will challenge the best of drivers, so put off any road travel for a day or so, as the winter impact will be short-lived.  Snow or freezing rain highly probable up the Gorge area, as a ‘finger’ of warmer air will melt falling snow, setting up the freezing rain scenario.  HEED Nat’l Wx Service announcements - their team will be on this, for sure.

While frozen precip of some form will be the threat across the region through most of Thu, given the cold air flow out off the Gorge, we don’t see a notable threat to the Puget Sound area at this time - just cold air.  All indications are that by overnight Thu or Valentine’s Day, conditions will thaw under a light rain or showers heading into Sat Feb 15.  Sunday looks damp, with higher amounts of rain falling over western WA.  The westerly flow of air should put a full stop to frozen precip issues, excluding the Cascades and eastern basins.  Time for mild.

The week of Feb 17-21 is charting to start out with a continuation of showers from the Sunday system, then turn dry and mild for balance of the week.  A scattered shower is possible east side mid-week, but that is iffy.

The weekend of Feb 22,23 is looking really decent, for February.  Dry with temps teasing the upper 50s, esp if there is limited foggy bottoms.  Daylight is getting longer by nearly 3 minutes EVERY DAY this month.  Lovin’ it!

Rain may return during the last week of February.  

Winter ☃︎ weather continues to be our focus, at least for the next 8 or 9 days.  ☕️ Hot Mug all set, so here goes.

For this weekend, cold air remains in place, so the system arriving tonight will present as snow early, turning to snow/rain mix over southern Willamette Valley south (because of a weak warmer southerly breeze); should remain as snow north zones, but not too much - it is a weak system.  Turning dry and chilly for the rest of the weekend.

Next week it will continue chilly on Monday, then another modified Arctic Air mass will drop in sometime overnight Monday (yep, our ‘Yukon Dome' of >1040 mb is developing this weekend).  Expect both the Fraser & Columbia Gaps to have windy outflows (although NOT the torrent of wind like last time out the Fraser Gap).  Potential for the coldest nights of the season Tue & Wed next week - upper teens to lower 20s - esp in wind sheltered areas.  

As you know, all we need is moisture to roll in off the Pacific to set up another round of winter issues.  Such is likely to be the case Wed night into Thu, Feb 12,13.  Currently, model solutions indicate a nighttime arrival, esp over western OR, which could equate to cold enough surface temps for a notable SNOW event across western OR & SW WA.  Outflow from the ‘Gaps’ will increase as a Low approaches the OR coast — but right now, models hold that Low off the coast, increasing the chance for SNOW to continue through most of the day on Thu. We’ll see.  —> Puget Sound area may NOT get much moisture from this system, as it could remain too far to your south.  However, EAST WINDS will howl.  Burrrrr.

Dry on Valentine’s Day — BUT, another storm will be setting up for a mixed precip weekend.  Cold air likely to remain west side for a bit, so SNOW and our freezing rain possible in many locations early Sat, then southerly winds should push colder surface air out of the PNW by Sunday.  Lots of ‘ifs’ in this scenario, so stay tuned here, as there’s lots of time to update the outlook.

Either way it goes right after Valentine’s Day, we do see a return to milder temps and VERY WET February weather for the second half of the month.  

Lots of snow in some PNW locations, esp north of Everett; others have none.  The current air mass is cold enough for snow or snow showers, it’s just the lack of precip that prevents The White everywhere.  As we sip our morn’n bev, the question arises, “Is there any more snow on the way?”  Well - - - 

Maybe.  Cold, modified Arctic air yet is charting to continue sliding into the PNW this week (esp out of the Fraser River Gap).  The rather stationary Low offshore will shift a bit this week to allow for a couple snow bands to move onshore, with the likelihood an inch or two of snow may stick the farther north one is located.  Later this week, a stronger band of moisture will move onshore, primarily over southern OR - maybe southern Willamette Valley - for additional snow or snow/rain mix.  Overnight subfreezing temps could make travel-by-road a cautionary tale.  

The PNW will remain on the cold side heading into the weekend, with continued chance for snow, snow/rain mix, or plain rain.  Trending drier for the first couple days of next week - Feb 10,11, before a normal, wet-pattern series of Pacific storms move onshore.  The first is charting for Wed the 12th.  While the Wed system should present as rain for western OR, there is an elevated chance for a snow event over for the Puget Sound area and Columbia Gorge / eastern basins.  A stronger system yet will arrive Thu night Feb 13, which should finally ‘blow out’ the last remnants of cold air in west side locations; still winter wx for east side & Idaho.

Valentine’s Day - a Friday this year - should be fairly dry as we'll be between Pacific storms.  Rain does return on Sat for a wet weekend, Feb 15,16.  Snow in the mountains.

Showers will be in play as the week of Feb 17 gets underway.  

Best chance for widespread snowfall around the PNW is about to arrive.  ☕️ Ready, set, snow. 

Following one of the driest Januarys on record, precipitation has finally returned to the great PNW.  Rain today, turning more showery later on Sat and colder, too.  Coldest air of the weekend moves in behind the current front by Sunday, so expect a snow/rain shower mix at the surface Saturday night into Sunday.  As many forecasters have stated, the heavier the showers, the greater the chance for snow accumulation at your location.  Foothills, Cascades and coast range could all get inches of snow by Monday.  But wait, there’s more - - -

Next week will present the coldest air mass of the season around the region, with the classic ‘outflow’ from Fraser Gap starting things off first, with strong cold winds driving cold air into the Puget Sound region; outflow from the Columbia Gorge will likely be delayed until Wednesday.  “Go for Snow” requires moisture, which in our case in early February, looks possible from southern OR into BC.  Not a lot of moisture, but enough, on & off, Mon through most of next week, to present SNOW just about everywhere.  Some model runs indicate 2-3” of snow on valley floors (with potential for more above 500 ft) — that stated, overnight showers are most likely to accumulate, making for slow commutes in the mornings.  School delays or outright cancellations are probable.  Road surfaces should be thawed during daylight hours, hopefully.

There should be a break in the threat for snow late Wed through early Thu, then, as a system moves moisture into the PNW from the SW, moderate snowfall is probable on Fri Feb 7, esp for the Willamette basin - southern district first, then moving north.   Stay tuned, as we see the chance per latest model runs, for over 3” should the Low center remain south of Eugene.  The air mass will be cold enough to hold most of the surface snow around for a few days, but NOT Arctic cold.  We do see a chance for freezing rain - for a short-spell - for Lane county south overnight Thu into Fri.  Mostly snow or snow/rain mix elsewhere.  Portland area north to BC may MISS OUT on the late-week event.

The weekend of Feb 8,9.  Should start out dry, turning damp late weekend, with a near repeat of the Thu-Fri storm noted above.  Warmer air mass by that time, so limited areas of snow or freezing rain.  Still, we see the chance for snow or snow/rain mix, or freezing rain for Salem north.  This system is likely to completely miss all of WA and BC.  The air mass over the PNW will remain rather cold, therefore roads will continue to be at risk for icy conditions, at times, during overnight hours.  The outflow of cold air from the Gaps should ease;  foggy bottoms possible.  

Monday - Fri, Feb 10-14.  Winter is not over.  Cold air mass will continue to linger about the PNW, so any threat for moisture could bring back the risk for frozen precip, at all elevations.  Such may be the case by late Thu through early Sat, Feb 13-15.  Snow or freezing rain possible!!  This is a long way out, so stay tuned.

For a few weeks now, the long-range models have suggested a cold, snowy type pattern for the PNW in Feburary.  We are seeing the chance for this to verify.  Plan ahead for any travel by road over the next couple of weeks.  Rhymes aside, all the “Go Snow” talk could just be that, talk and no action.  Still, our premise here is that preparation ahead of time is far less inconvenient than getting caught by surprise.  Go Snow.