Wow, it’s already the last week of the month and, for some, the final week of summer vacation.  HOT conditions will slowly cool as this week progresses.  We may have caught a “wx break” during the upcoming US holiday weekend; read on for details.  

Wrap around moisture from a Low centered over the CA-OR-NV border is training cloudiness over portions of the PNW this morning.  The are some thunderstorms associated with this pattern, so stay alert (east Eugene/Springfield getting hit as this is written).  Similar to the past few days, clouds may clear away somewhat by the afternoon, allowing the heat to build rapidly.  For all regions, temps in the upper 80s to 90s are possible for many locations today & Tue.  Somewhat cooler on Wed and another drop in temps by Thu/Fri.  Think low 80s.

Labor Day Holiday:  a favorable trend on the wx charts suggests the expected wet pattern may not develop - or be delayed enough for Patrons to sneak in a few pleasant days for outdoor activities.  Right now, some precip is possible, but quite spotty.  (Often model outlooks do shift back to earlier solutions, so keep that in mind.)  Overall, temperatures will moderate into ‘comfortable’ for most locations.  Higher humidity will help with fire fighting.

Next week - Sep 2-5 is trending rather pleasant in the temp department, as the ‘heat dome’ will shift over ID, with limited threat for precip.  Again, higher humidity will help with fire fighting.

The weekend of Sep 6,7 is looking WET for southern BC, as cold air to the north clashes with warm air over northern WA.  This is a new feature, so expect some modification going forward.  Warmer over the rest of the PNW (mid-to-upper 80s), as compared to the 'short week' after Labor Day.

HEAT may return again (not unusual for this time of year) in the Sep 9-10 period.  

Overall, we just don’t see any significant rainfall during the next 2 weeks, unless one gets caught under a thunderstorm.

The weather charts are showing a range of conditions over the next couple of weeks, with the timing of precipitation unfortunate.  ☕️ Mug time.

• ⚠️This weekend, Aug 23,24:  HOT.  Temps in the mid-to-upper 90s - even a few 100+ degree readings - in many locations around the PNW; NW WA & BC will be a bit cooler, however upper 90s remains probable away from the Sound shoreline.  Regionally, a DRY AIR MASS, so fire danger will be elevated.  Overnight low temps in the 60s, even 70s in a few locations.  Fan Up.
• ⚠️Next week, Aug 25-29:  HOT through at least Wed.  Some mid-level moisture may ‘ride north’ from the desert SW, setting off thunderstorms over the OR & eastern basins.  There are indications for an onshore flow to begin overnight Wed Aug 27, which would tap down the heat 7-10 degrees as the week ends.  It could be WET on Thu the 28th, esp north of Portland, as the first of a series of rain fields arrive.
• Labor Day Weekend, Aug 30-Sep 1:  While not totally resolved, models continue to suggest a cooler & DAMP holiday weekend, with systems moving onshore from the west.  We mentioned this last time and the solutions remain ‘wet’.  Not a total wash-out, but if verified, just about everywhere around the PNW will get cloudiness and moderate amounts of precipitation.  Labor Day itself may be the driest day of the holiday period.
• Post Labor Day week, Sep 2-5:  The short work & back-to-school week will likely start out cool and gradually warm throughout the 4 days.  
• Weekend of Sep 6,7: HOT again.  

🌀 Topical Tropical: Well, the latest tropical charts have dropped any hurricane threat for the US mainland through at least Sep 8.  FERNAND, if it develops, will spin out over the Atlantic as a fish storm.  Other tropical storm development is now being hindered by dry Saharan Dust.  Hopefully, this means we caught a break for now.  It is the peak of hurricane season, so we can expect future development.

For those that enjoy moderately hot, sunny August afternoons, this forecast will please.  Refill your morn’n Mug and get back here for the latest outlook for the rest of August.

Cool, onshore flow will keep afternoon highs a tad below normal for the next 2-3 days, then an extended warm period will develop, one that could hold through until Labor Day Weekend.

• This week, Aug 18-22: Afternoon sun after the morning marine cloud deck ‘burns off’.  Temps pleasantly in the 70s, maybe low 80s esp south & east regions. By Thu, the onshore will weaken & temps will begin to heat up into the 90s around western OR, SW WA; 80s around the Sound, north.
• The coming weekend, Aug 23,24: Mid 90s possible; high 80s north of Chehalis.  Morning sun.
• Week of Aug 25-29:  Onshore flow picks up, cooling the region down again, much like the current pattern.  This time, though, the pattern may shift to one that is like Fall, right in time for the extended US holiday.
• Labor Day Weekend, Aug 30-Sep 1:  The 'final holiday' of Summer.  Long-range charts hint of a Low pressure system drifting down the BC coast, ushering in clouds, cooler temps and showers throughout the entire holiday.  This is early, so don’t modify outdoor plans just yet.   Thunderstorms along the Cascades during Thu & Fri Aug 28,29.
• Post Labor Day week: trending cool, partly-to-mostly cloudy, but dry, as a Low centers itself right over the PNW.

It’s just about time for wine grape veraison - the important "coloring up” period for wine grapes — the transition from grape berry growth to berry ripening.  Veraison is often from late-Aug to early Sept, but timing can be quite variable because of summer weather conditions.  Any Patrons that are grape growers wishing to share whether or not veraison has started in your vineyard(s) — please post a note to rrufus@yahoo.com.  

Nature will be adjusting the thermostat, cooling the region down as this week ends.  Looks like some raindrops are also in the works.  Let’s take a look.

• This week, Aug 11-15: HOT today and Tue, with temps again teasing close to triple-digits (Medford 106 yesterday).  Puget Sound will be warm, but not nearly as hot as western OR.  Onshore flow increase mid-week, so expect Wed to cool down.  By Friday, SHOWERS possible as a cold front moves onshore from the NW.  Temps on Fri may not exceed 72.  Most of the precip will fall north of Portland, much like the system several days ago.  
• The coming weekend, Aug 16,17:  Looks mostly dry, with some cloudiness following behind Friday’s cold front.  Temps will rebound a bit, into the mid-to-upper 70s.  Pleasant.
• Week of Aug 18-22: Turning warmer by Wed the 20th, although not a heat wave.  Pleasant 80s; cooler around the Sound.  Fri the 22nd may top 90 in portions of western OR.
• Weekend of Aug 23,24: Cooling again, as a weak surface Low tracks just off the OR coast.  Onshore flow, with marine clouds.  Late Sunday could present drizzle along the coast.
• Week of Aug 25-29: Increasing warmth, with temps returning to expected Summer heat.  We don’t see a heat wave at this time, just seasonal temps for late August.

The future hurricane mentioned in our last report now looks to track well off-shore over the Atlantic.  As a “fish storm”, ERIN still looks to be a strong hurricane, but no threat for landfall.