Monday January 27

Winter may drop in soon, as in SNOW.  Find the mittens & hot chocolate.  Lots of details that could have impact.  Ready?

Indeed, model solutions continue to hint at a winter event during the first full week of February, which should begin to set up this coming weekend.  But first, another 4 days of dry weather.  Strong east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will remain in play until Tue night.  Looks like Thu night will begin the turning point from dry to wet & notably colder.  The persistent blocking ridge of High pressure will erode away from the west with a front moving onshore across the entire PNW Thu night.  Fri looks wet with a mild southerly wind temporarily warming valley floors.  

Late Thu night Feb 6, another system is modeled to drop south along the BC coast, ushering in moisture that could fall as SNOW, freezing rain, or rain, depending on west side location AND just how strong the southerly flow component for surface winds is as the Low drops south.  The air mass should be cold enough for frozen precip, but where and for how long is uncertain this far out from the event (if it even develops).   This snow, freezing rain, rain action should continue into Sat Feb 8.  On Sunday Feb 9, a stronger storm is charting to move up from the southwest, ushering in a normal February moderate rainfall event.  The transitions could be messy, esp where eastern outflow continues.  Think Columbia Gorge & Fraser River.

Way too early to peg actual snowfall estimates, but some solutions present up to a couple inches of snow during the event in the valleys; more in the coast range.  We’ll see.

Feb 10-Valentine’s Day looks quite WET & blustery, as storms are charting to line up and push onshore.  Warmer.

(Yes, that is our Winter Cup trademark)

Friday January 24

Long tag line, but a notable change in the weather MAY be on the horizon.  Better Mug up, Patron; interesting trend on the charts to discuss.  All set?

Our lengthy DRY pattern will continue for another 6+ days.  There is COLDER air setting up to arrive this weekend.  Not a strong outflow event, but definitely a northeasterly component to the air flow, which typically brings on colder temps around the PNW.  That is what to expect this weekend.  In fact, by Sunday morning (& Mon), temps could drop into the upper teens in the Willamette Valley - or wherever there is shelter from the east wind.  It’s a 1036 mb 'Yukon Dome' that will shift southeast, drawing down colder continental air into the region.  East side likely to dip to the lowest temps, thus far, this winter.  NO MOISTURE.  Yet.

Next week, the cold air mass will work southward into CA, setting up the potential for showers over the FIRE AREAS of southern CA — a blessing for that region, for sure. In the PNW, temps will remain chilly & dry each day, although the afternoons could pop up into the 40s west side.  Foggy bottoms, at times, as the winds diminish by Tue, which may hold temps in the upper 30s for foggy locations.  

What’s this about The White?  Lots of social media & local weather geeks discussing the possibility for a snowy pattern sometime in Feburary.  Well, as you may guess, we are right in there with that “ponder point” for now.  This coming Thu, clouds will increase from the west, with RAIN possible by Fri morning, Jan 31.  We will stick with forecasting rain, for now, because the air mass ABOVE the surface will be warmer, the cloud cover Thu night will hold up temps, and there should be limited east wind to drop west side temps.  East of the Cascades, pockets of freezing rain - or snow - cannot be ruled out.  The system will NOT be a strong one, so we’re fairly confident in the forecast above for Friday.

Sat & Sun Feb 1,2 are presenting an outside chance for The White in western WA & OR, as colder, upper-level air will move in behind the rain band that passes by the last day of January.  Not much moisture left, so we cannot forecast a big snow event, just the chance for a skiff of snow or snow/rain mix.  Saturday night is the best chance for a dusting of snow.  We’ll see.

Week of Feb 3-7.  Snow?  Since our last report on Jan 20, wx models have suggested that a Low pressure system - modeled to move onshore Mon Feb 3 - would do so over northern CA, which would draw colder air behind it over WA, OR & BC, and thus open the door for The White.  Secondary systems were then charted to drop down the BC coast and usher in a notable winter snow event for the entire PNW Feb 3-6.  Total snowfall was running 2-6 inches.  Well, that has been dropped as of this morning, with the latest model solutions suggesting the LOW will move onshore farther north - over western WA, ushering in warmer air and cancelling the Snow Dreams of many.  On/off rain that week, with lowering snow levels are in the latest model solutions.  The Puget Sound could get snow/rain mix by Thu or Fri Feb 6,7.  

Ponder Point:  Knowing how rare it is for moderate snowfall west side, we will lean towards the later prognostication above for rain.  That said, we often see models revert to earlier solutions, as the calendar dates near.  Let’s see what develops - the CHANCE for a snowy week is not off the table completely.  

That said, the wet pattern of rain (or snow??) should continue into the weekend of Feb 8,9.  Drier as the second full week of Feb begins.

Bottom line:  A week from today, Fri Jan 31, should present the first rain since very early Jan.  This weekend will turn colder.  Then, we wait to see if The White is at the end of the dry January Tunnel.  Isn’t this fun??

A Special Day for our Nation, both in Presidential Transition and in memory of a great man.  What about the weather?  Well, a very rare chance for SNOW tomorrow across the shoreline of the Gulf States, to include New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola.  BUT, you are here for the PNW weather, so let’s get to it, shall we?  

East winds over the weekend have really chilled down west side locations (21F now in Albany); colder air mass is possible late this week, so be ready.  In the meantime, expect the fog-clearing east wind to diminish, with foggy bottoms possible again this week.  By Thu night, a cold air mass is modeled to drop in from the north, which should clear the sky and usher in another round of sub-freezing overnight temps.  Some locations are likely to be 4-8 degrees colder than the current pattern, esp east side, by Fri/Sat nights.  STRONG Fraser Gap wind may develop late Fri into the weekend; much less so for the Columbia Gorger outflow.  Per the above cold air mass, we do not see much precipitation with this cold air, so other than a few clouds - maybe even a flurry on either side of the Cascades, nothing of note this weekend, Jan 25,26.  Oh yeah, DRY all week.

The week of Jan 27 - 31 looks DRY again everyday.  Foggy bottoms may return, as the colder air slowly warms around the region, with limited breezes.  (The northern half of Vancouver Is. could get a shower late Fri night to end January; a few clouds over the Puget Sound, as well.)

February.  Onshore flow will ‘warm’ the area during the first weekend of Feb.  STILL DRY.   A ‘blocking’ ridge of High pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will continue to hold off Pacific storm as the month of February gets underway.  Therefore, we forecast DRY conditions continuing through at least Thu Feb 7.    

From the ’Net: “I love board games. My favorite is where people put meat and cheese on a board; maybe some fruit and crackers. I’m so good at that one!”

Political change ahead; no change in the weather — expect dry conditions for the next 18 days!

The weather of late has been bland.  Looks like that will remain the case through approx. Jan 26.  Here’s the latest.

Chilly fog has dominated certain regions of the PNW primarily because there has been little ‘wind’ to stir things up.  The main change this weekend will be an increasing offshore flow component - wind - that will aid in clearing away the fog bank, but at the same time, dropping temperatures to the coldest of the season, to date.  Expect temps to fall into the 20s in nearly all west side locations by early next week.  Chilly afternoons, too.  East wind out of the Gaps, but not too strong.  Dry.

The fog clearing air flow will diminish again mid-week for 24-36 hrs — expect foggy bottoms to possibly return.  However, that will be short-lived, as the east winds will pick up again, based on High pressure building over the Continental Divide.  (NOTE: this development will really mess with firefighting in California, as the east winds could ramp up significantly by the end of next week.).  Afternoon temps should be a bit warmer than that of early next week, as the weekend of Jan 25,26 unfolds.  Dry.

Weekend of Jan 25,26: models indicate a weak system may approach the region from the the west, so our first chance for precipitation in quite some time takes place.  We are not confident there will be much rain, as the Low may make landfall south of Coos Bay.  As a result, Fraser Gap winds may pick up notably by Sunday the 26th.  Temps will be colder again, much like the current weekend.  Bland dry.

Charts keep the extended dry cycle in play on through the end the month.  The next threat for rain is being held off until Saturday Feb 1.  We may see an 'atmospheric race’ between a Low dropping down the Alaskan Panhandle and a Low moving in from the west; the first Low would usher in a chance for colder wx with snow showers, the other - plain ole' rain.  We’ll see.

Bottom line: bland weather ahead, with temperature changes being the only ‘watch point’.  Let’s hope February presents some moisture, esp for the snowpack.

New week.  Same forecast.  Fresh Mug full.  All set?

Our tag line covers it well —> periods of frost & fog in the morning hours will be the rule through the end of January.  Sure, a small chance for a tad of precip, esp in the hills; nothing notable.  Dry City.

WINDS in southern Cal are kicking back up again through mid-week; they will diminish by Thu.  Not too much easterly flow around the PNW, which is a small adjustment from our last report.  Still dry.  

Colder air will gradually seep in from the NE this week as another block of cold, Arctic air descends into the US from the interior of Canada, setting up bitterly cold air across much of the Nation east of the Rockies.  Burrrr.   Dry weekend for us, Jan 18,19 - colder than this past weekend, for sure, with a moderate east wind drawing cold air to the west side.  Overnight lows in the 20s probable west side.

The week of Jan 20 is trending DRY but with increasing east winds around the PNW, although not super cold.  Rather bland, if you will.  The wind will decrease the change for foggy bottoms.

Weekend of Jan 25, 26 looks to be a possible ’turning point’ relative to the PNW getting into a truly winter mode.  Meaning: models hint at a modified Arctic air mass beginning to impact the PNW during the final days of January 2025.  We understand — is this another false start?  No one knows for sure; we report what may be possible, then wait out the ‘great reveal’.  Anyway, there have been several wx model geeks discussing the potential for a very cold February around these here parts.  With our Mugs in hand, we just PONDER the possibilities.  Anywho, expect temps turn colder as the week of Jan 27 progresses.  Flurries in the eastern basins.