The WxCafe™

Touch of Fall

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 15, 2025

Friday August 15

The next couple of days will present a Touch of Fall.

Storm time. An unusually strong Pacific storm for August has captured the forecast news, for good reason. It is quite rare to have a system loaded with this much moisture, and notable wind field, arrive in the PNW during the 8th month of the year. RAIN will continue to move onshore as today progresses, with the heaviest rainfall due in this evening. BREEZY, too, so secure patio furniture, etc. Half an inch or more rain is possible around the region; higher amounts in the foothills. The system will work its way east by Saturday morning, with some showers early in the day, then slow clearing by the afternoon. A real August Mud Maker. Sunday will be dry & pleasant. 70s.
Next week, Aug 18-22: dry & pleasant. Some morning marine clouds possible. It does look a bit warmer towards the end of the week.
Aug 23,24 weekend: Dry & warm.
Week of Aug 25-29: Dry Monday, then a chance for additional rain or showers, primarily over WA & southern BC by Tue morning. This system may also end up quite wet for August, esp north of Portland. On/off precip through Wed the 27. Temps below normal. Southern OR could remain dry throughout.
Labor Day holiday weekend: trending dry, with temps in the 70s - low 80s.

🌀 Topical Tropical: ERIN will continue to deepen, resulting in a Cat III or IV level hurricane soon. ERIN will likely remain dangerous ‘fish storm” as it curves northward missing the US, passing close to Newfoundland then Greenland. Still, the Atlantic Seaboard will experience high surf from this soon-to-be powerful storm. The next potential Atlantic hurricane - to be named FERNAND - is now ‘birthing’ similar to ERIN, just west of Africa. FERNAND could pose a direct threat to the US by Labor Day weekend.

“People cannot change truth, but truth can change people."

-Rufus

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Adjusting the Thermostat

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 11, 2025

Monday August 11

Nature will be adjusting the thermostat, cooling the region down as this week ends. Looks like some raindrops are also in the works. Let’s take a look.

This week, Aug 11-15: HOT today and Tue, with temps again teasing close to triple-digits (Medford 106 yesterday). Puget Sound will be warm, but not nearly as hot as western OR. Onshore flow increase mid-week, so expect Wed to cool down. By Friday, SHOWERS possible as a cold front moves onshore from the NW. Temps on Fri may not exceed 72. Most of the precip will fall north of Portland, much like the system several days ago.
The coming weekend, Aug 16,17: Looks mostly dry, with some cloudiness following behind Friday’s cold front. Temps will rebound a bit, into the mid-to-upper 70s. Pleasant.
Week of Aug 18-22: Turning warmer by Wed the 20th, although not a heat wave. Pleasant 80s; cooler around the Sound. Fri the 22nd may top 90 in portions of western OR.
Weekend of Aug 23,24: Cooling again, as a weak surface Low tracks just off the OR coast. Onshore flow, with marine clouds. Late Sunday could present drizzle along the coast.
Week of Aug 25-29: Increasing warmth, with temps returning to expected Summer heat. We don’t see a heat wave at this time, just seasonal temps for late August.

The future hurricane mentioned in our last report now looks to track well off-shore over the Atlantic. As a “fish storm”, ERIN still looks to be a strong hurricane, but no threat for landfall.

“Each morning sees some task begin, each evening sees it close;

Something attempted, something done, has earned the night’s repose.” -Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

-Rufus

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Shortened

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 08, 2025

Friday August 8

The Heat Wave arrives, but it will be shortened, to the delight of many. Time for that refill, Patron.

Indeed, the much discussed heat-up gets under way starting today. Temps will pop up a few degrees each day as the weekend unfolds, with Sunday likely being the first ‘cooker’ day of the shortened heat spell. While the Puget Sound & southern BC will not get so hot, everywhere in the PNW will experience the uncomfortable heat to some degree (pun intended).

Aug 9,10 weekend: Temps in the 90s to near 100 by Sunday in western OR. Sunday night may not cool down much, so keep those fans handy.
Week of Aug 11-15: Monday likely the hottest day - 96 to 100 in many locations south of Longview. Slight cooling on Tue, although lots of variation in model outlooks, so it could still reach 90+ However, all indications are that by Wed the 13th, a weak surface Low will work it’s way into the PNW along coastal BC, with a chance for a shower or two over the Puget Sound overnight Wed. Whoa. That was not expected earlier. Temps will drop down into the pleasant 70s in western OR (which should stay dry, with some cloudiness Thu). Fri the 15th looks to be warmer, but not hot.
Weekend of Aug 16,17: A stronger system could edge it’s way into the PNW overnight Fri, with some rain or showers across most of western WA Fri night into Sat. Mainly a cloud event for NW OR - and remaining dry. Sunday trends as pleasant.
Week of Aug 18-22: Temps remaining mild for August, with another slight chance for showers late Fri over the Sound. Don’t bet on this, though.

As you can tell, this projected heat wave will barely make the “qualifying round” of 3 consecutive 90 degree days in the shade (we use the 'old school' definition). However, in keeping with our foundational premise, when it looked like the heat wave could last 7 days, we encouraged Patrons 'be prepared, just in case'.

🌀 Topical Tropical. From the may-or-may-not Department, we are monitoring the season's first Atlantic storm that could impact the US. This tropical wave, developing just off the west coast of Africa around Capo Verde, may deepen and be named ERIN before making a run at the SE Atlantic coast by Aug 20-22.

“A recipe of life must contain a goodly amount of seasoning."

-Rufus

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Pre-Bake Adjustments

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 04, 2025

Monday August 4

The expected Heat Wave remains on schedule, although the charts suggest a slight downward adjustment in just how hot will may get. Let’s get started.

This week, Aug 4-8: Right on track for a couple of days to be cooler that normal for August, with increasing chance of a few showers Tue night through most of Wed the 6th. Most of the precip will fall north of Portland, although there is an outside chance that roads could be damp for the Wed morning commute north of Salem. Temps today (Monday), Tue and Fri will be the warmest of the week - say upper 70s to low 80s.
The Weekend of Aug 9,10: Start of a 7 day run of 90+ degree afternoons around most of the PNW; slightly cooler for the Puget Sound.
Week of Aug 11-15: HOT - upper 90s to low 100s, although models have tapped down the triple-digit readings we reported in our last report (let’s hope that trend continues). Warm nights. Hot in southern BC.
Aug 16,17 Weekend: 90s, although an onshore flow may begin to moderate the heat as early as Sat the 16th. Hopefully.
Week of Aug 18-22: Indications for a warm-up again by Wed the 20th, mainly over western OR, SW WA. We’ll see.

All-in-all, a run of 90+ temps for western OR and portions of WA is possible. It is August, so this can be expected, Follow all the normal cautions and look out for your neighbors & friends.

(The ’Song of Summer’ is well underway around Albany.)

“Knowing that you don’t know much is knowing more than most."

-Rufus

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Heading into the Oven

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 01, 2025

Friday August One

A serious Heat Event continues to capture our attention; in the mean time, enjoy the pleasant summer temperatures before Nature’s Oven gets left open. Here’s the breakdown.

Aug 2,3 weekend: Warm temps, primarily in the upper 80s, with slightly cooler temps around the Sound. East side a bit warmer. More thunderstorms possible to the east, esp late Sunday.
Next week, Aug 4-8: Generally, ‘cool’ for summer, with temps in the 70s under an onshore flow. Patrons up in the Puget Sound north could get a few showers late Thu the 7th; cloudiness elsewhere in western WA; limited clouds around Oregon. Enjoy the coolness, as the big heat-up begins soon.
Weekend of Aug 9,10: This period will mark the transition into what could be multiple days of triple-digit temps in many west side locations. Saturday should be in the 90s region wide, excluding the usual ‘bit cooler’ Puget Sound. Sunday will begin the climb — Medford triple-digit; Willamette Valley & SW WA high 90s.
Week of Aug 11-15: MAJOR HEAT WAVE. Temps this DAILY this week are modeled to climb into the 103-105 range by Wed the 13th (108 Medford). Overnight lows will be uncomfortable for folks w/o air conditioning (65-73). Monday of this week will likely be the coolest day - if you want to call it that - at 99. Again, around the Puget Sound & BC it will likely not be so hot. (This heat dome is not like the historic Canada-based high pressure ridge of late June 2021.)
Weekend of Aug 16,17: Yes, the HEAT WAVE CONTINUES into this weekend. Triple-digits probable in many west side locations.

—> The pattern driving the heat wave is NOT modeled to change much when the week of Aug 18 arrives, as an onshore flow has yet to be indicated.

Too early to confirm every detail of the upcoming Heat Event, but we have seen this pattern on the charts for quite a few days now. Hence, the forewarning. Patrons that will be traveling away from home —> make plans this coming week to be sure pets & plants will receive adequate care. Farm animals will need extra water. All of us MUST pay attention to neighbors that do not have air conditioning, as this type of heat wave is life-threatening.

“Never let yesterday use up too much of today."

-Rufus

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