Monday September 27

 

Heading into October, it will be wet.  However, a fall harvest dry period is on the way.  Mug up.

 

On / off rain and showers will prevail for most of this week over WA & BC.  A thunderstorm is possible, both sides of the mountains.  Windy, at times (strong winds over ID, MT, WY on Tue).  The break we expected on Wed will be short-lived, as another system will bring more rain later on Wed into Thu.  That said, it will be wet over OR through Tue, then likely dry -  south of Salem - as we may miss that mid-week system, other than some cloudiness.  For the entire PNW, including Vancouver Island, Fri Oct 1 will be the dry-out day.  

 

The coming weekend is charting as delightful.  Plenty of sunshine, mild-to-warm temperatures, N-NE breezes.  In fact, it looks DRY from the first weekend of October all the way through Thu Oct 7.  Models are trending towards a system spinning SW of OR late the week of Oct 4-8 which, if it develops, will bring rain/showers or thunderstorms in from the SW by Fri the 8.  This is a relatively new trend, but could also open the door for WIND PRODUCING storms as we head into the 59th anniversary of the Oct 12 Columbus Day Storm of ’62.  There are solutions that keep the PNW on the drier side for a couple extra days, until the weekend of Oct 9,10 when that southerly flow, return-of-precipitation pattern begins.  We’ll see.

 

Overall:  the current wet pattern is much appreciated, as will be the upcoming 7 day dry period for hazelnut and grape harvests.  Mid-Oct is traditionally the “turning point” into the PNW rainy season.  Will October 2021 bring on at least that much normalcy?  A Ponder Point.

 

 

The Weather Café®️ was recognized as the Mid-Valley Chapter’s Top Earner for the 2021 Walk to End Alzheimer’s here in Albany, OR on Saturday.  Your generous contributions totaled $5,050!  Let’s all tip our Mugs for the job well done.  THANK YOU!!! 

 

Friday September 24

 

Pleasant Fall weather ahead, including an additional round of precipitation (hurray!).  Let’s sip into the details.

 

Mild & dry through Saturday ahead of 3 damp, cool days of fall weather.  Wet Sunday through Monday.  Eastern basins & ID will get in on the moisture by Monday.  Good news.  It should dry out overnight Tue, providing a pleasant mid-week break from the showers.  Another system will clip Vancouver Island & NW WA on Thu.  Right now, clouds may be the only impact for SW WA and OR next Thu.  However, a weak band of rain could drift over OR & WA on Fri. Oct 1.

 

The first weekend of October is trending DRY and pleasant.  In fact, an extended dry period is charting for Sat Oct 2 until Tue evening Oct 5, when a wet system will return to the region.  (Patrons in the northern half of Vancouver Is. will be wet on Tue Oct 5).  Lingering showers & cool temps will prevail over western WA through Wed.  OR should be dry on the 6th, as will the rest of the PNW through the end of that week and beyond.

 

No major organized storm is on the charts for the PNW for the weekend of Oct 9,10 - although the Pacific High pressure ridge will shift enough to allow for weak fronts to clip the far NW corner of WA, keeping clouds around with a shower possible.  

 

It will be cool across the entire PNW throughout the forecast period detailed above.  Cool meaning no 80 degree periods are foreseen by the models.  

Note: we are watching the potential development of a High pressure dome over NW Alaska, which could set up our first frosts of the fall later in October.  A long shot for sure, but definitely that time of year.  

 

 

The long awaited fall storm is now moving onshore over southern BC and WA.  Oregon and the rest of the PNW will be drenched soon.  Sipping from your Mug tomorrow morning with the sound of rain outside will be wonderful.  We will not spend much time on this weekend’s storm, since it has been extensively covered by so many already.  Let’s take a peek at what may arrive AFTER this weekend's soaking.

 

Cool air will follow behind the storm, so expect a chilly Monday morning.  Most of the storm-front related precip will have moved east by then.  Temperatures will rebound next week, although we'll likely get some clouds & a few showers on Wed, mainly over western WA & BC, as a ridge of High pressure rebuilds over the PNW.  Sunshine should be the rule as the week ends, and throughout the last weekend of September.  In fact, it may turn rather WARM next weekend, all the way north into the Abbotsford area.

 

The week of Sept 27 - Oct 1 should begin sunny & warm.  By late week, a weak Low may develop and move into northern CA triggering thunderstorms along the southern OR Cascades.  Too early to tell if any boomers will drift over the Willamette Valley.  That system will dampen ID as Oct gets underway.  It will be WARM.  

 

Please note: earlier model runs were indicating another wet period for southern BC & western WA for the weekend of Sep 25,26 & extending into the following week — while that solution has lost favor, we always caution that Nature often retros-back to early solutions.  Just say’n.

 

Bottom line:  rain will be a blessing, esp if long-range model runs are correct, and the PNW returns to another extended dry period from Tue Sep 22 through Oct 3.  However, fall crop harvests will benefit.

 - - -

 

 

Lastly, with a circumference of 10 ft. 4 in., the final weight of our giant pumpkin was 533 lb. on Sept 14.  We had 85 folks attend the Weigh-off Ceremony here at Mennonite Village, Albany.  A fun event, for sure.

 

 

 

A taste of Fall weather will arrive this week.  Remember to roll up the car windows.

 

The leading edge of a cooler air mass will begin to arrive from the NW as early as Tue evening over Vancouver Island.  This portion is not particularly wet, so we must wait a bit longer for steady rain.  That said, don’t rule out a few showers possible over NW WA by Wed, esp higher elevations.  It will continue to 

cool down across the entire PNW on Thu the 16th.  

 

By Thu night, expect the rain field to arrive, draping across the region from north to south.  Fri looks WET & breezy.   Chilly air will pool over the PNW as a Low slowly moves in on Sat.  Expect on/off showers through the weekend; sweaters or coats will be come out of the closet.  The cold front will move over ID by late Sunday.  A crisp morning will greet the new work/school week on the 20th.  Fall colors will be triggered.

 

Models have been trending away from another large system on Wed the 23, but not completely.  If the system does develop, most of the precip should fall north of Portland or be limited to NW WA.  Generally, without that system, mild & sunny afternoons (lots of 70s) should prevail much of that week.  The weekend of Sep 25,26 may turn wet again, esp for the northern half of WA and BC.  Oregon & Idaho could remain mostly dry.  

 

In the Sep 25-29 period, model solutions keep the ‘jet-stream’ upper-level winds rushing over southern BC, holding most of the rain up in southern BC, clipping Vancouver Is & the far NW corner of WA.  Breezy at times, though, for much of the PNW.  Rain may return by Friday Oct 1st.

 

Bottom line: we are finally on track for measurable rainfall.  The uncertainty for rain beyond this Friday’s (& weekend) storm centers on how far south the ‘jet stream’ will shift afterward, resulting in additional rain for all of the PNW.  To repeat, latest trend is leaning toward Canada, not OR, WA, ID. 

 

Personal Note:  the Giant Pumpkin Project here in the retirement community has been a success.  Final Weight Estimate will be Tue Sep 14.  The image of “The Pumpkinator” (below) was taken Saturday evening (we’ll share the weight in the next report.)

 

Repeat from the past: “Some tasks have to be put off dozens of times before they completely slip our minds.”

 

 

A difficult day of Remembrance tomorrow, Nine-Eleven.  We will never forget.  

 

The wx pattern charting for the next couple of weeks remains on track with our last discussion.  We are trending favorably to receive the first notable rainfall around the region since last June.  There is a band of moderate moisture moving to the NE along the east of the Cascades this morning, hence some cloudiness west side, as an upper-level Low spins on by.  This weekend continues to trend generally dry & mild.

 

The pattern shift due to arrive late next week is positive for the sound of rain drops.  The key change since our last update is that the 1st round of rain may arrive as early as next Fri, Sep 17.  If not that soon, at least the models KEEP the wet system as a ‘go’ for arrival sometime the weekend of Sep 18,19.  Breezy & cool conditions along with the precipitation.  Ah, the feel of fall.  

 

As the week of Sep 20 begins, there are two options on the charts: 1) expect a short dry period before the next fall rain arrives either mid-week with more again the following weekend or, 2) damp on/off through the first half of the week, then drying over the weekend of Sep 25,26.  WINDY at times, either way.  Which option verifies all depends on just where the center of the large trough of Low pressure sets up in the Gulf of Alaska.  We have time to firm up the forecast beforehand.

 

Again, models vary the timing of, but not the possibility for, rain.  In between the storms, temps will warm nicely over OR, while remaining rather cool for Puget Sound Patrons.  (Patrons on Vancouver Island, in SW BC and maybe the far NW corner of WA, are likely to receive large amount of rainfall throughout the second half of September.)  As noted, WIND will be a factor at times, mainly east side.

 

The week of Sep 27 is trending on the wet side, overall.  Fall.