More Rain & WIND

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday November 15
Our hearts go out to all Patrons in NW WA and southern BC - the heavy, flooding rains just won’t let go.  More to come before we get out of November.  Refill and read on.
As noted, serious flooding & landslides are impacting so many Patrons around the PNW.  For some, the moderate-to-heavy rainfall has continued daily since last week.  Temps have set records for WARMTH, which has held freezing levels high, sending all the heavy mountain slope precip right down rivers into the flooding lowlands.  Yikes.  There will be a few short breaks in the steady rain between now and the end of November.  However, while OR and much of western WA will dry out reasonably well, inches more rain will fall in NW WA and southern BC.  Now the details.
Today (Nov 15): a Low pressure system will rapidly move into the PNW.  This one is continuing heavy rain up north, but will also pack a short, but powerful WIND FIELD later today or tonight.  It will be the rapid rise in barometric pressure, post-frontal passage, that will kick-up quite a WIND. Willamette Valley and north will likely get 35-45 mph gusts, maybe 50+ in places.  (Yes, the last system we warned about did NOT pack the expected winds in OR; NW WA / BC did get hammered, though).  Power outages are probable up & down west side of the Cascades, adding misery to Patrons already struggling with floods up north.  Rainfall in OR should be in the half inch range at the valley floor; higher in the usual places; inches up north today/tonight.  Temperatures will drop RAPIDLY, so this will help ‘hold’ some of the precip in the mountains as SNOW (dropping below pass levels).
Dry most of Tue, Wed and early Thu.  Then, late Thu, WHAM - as another tightly packed Low pressure storm will come onshore around Astoria overnight Thu (! tracking inside the 130W).  Model solutions are quite variable on this one, but the pattern warrants our mention.  WINDY, esp or coast & willamette Valley Thu night.  WET.  Drying out Fri afternoon.  
Additional moderate-heavy rain is due to arrive over NW WA & southern BC late Saturday into Sunday.  Areas south of roughly Longview should remain mostly DRY.  Astoria will pick up some rain.  Oregon should be mild & dry Monday.  Repeat of the wet pattern is charted for Mon night, Nov 22, with portions of the north OR coast getting some rain; most of the precip to hit the already saturated NW WA, Vancouver Is, etc.  Tue Nov 23 is trending DRY, even for the far north zone we keep mentioning.   Pre-Thanksgiving, Wed, is looking generally dry everywhere (including much of the lower 48).
Thanksgiving Day:  dry everywhere except far NW WA, Vanc Is., and southern BC (sorry, but another round of heavy rain is on the charts).  That rain will let up on Black Fri.  Thankfully, the dry pattern should hold all the way through the long-US holiday weekend, even for our Canadian Patrons.  Let’s hope this verifies!
Rain returns to the PNW on Mon & Tue to end a very wet November.  California is modeled to be dry for the rest of November, excluding a few showers over northern CA from our windy storm overnight this Thu.
In Summary - total precipitation expected from today through Nov 30 is as follows:  Olympic Penn & Vancouver Island = 3.5"-8”; southern BC mountains (feeding the Fraser River) = 5”-12”; SW WA and Willamette Valley = another 1”-2”, with more in the coast & western slopes of the Cascades.  
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