The Heat Wave arrives, but it will be shortened, to the delight of many.  Time for that refill, Patron.

Indeed, the much discussed heat-up gets under way starting today.  Temps will pop up a few degrees each day as the weekend unfolds, with Sunday likely being the first ‘cooker’ day of the shortened heat spell.  While the Puget Sound & southern BC will not get so hot, everywhere in the PNW will experience the uncomfortable heat to some degree (pun intended).  

• Aug 9,10 weekend:  Temps in the 90s to near 100 by Sunday in western OR.  Sunday night may not cool down much, so keep those fans handy.
• Week of Aug 11-15:  Monday likely the hottest day -  96 to 100 in many locations south of Longview.  Slight cooling on Tue, although lots of variation in model outlooks, so it could still reach 90+  However, all indications are that by Wed the 13th, a weak surface Low will work it’s way into the PNW along coastal BC, with a chance for a shower or two over the Puget Sound overnight Wed.  Whoa. That was not expected earlier.  Temps will drop down into the pleasant 70s in western OR (which should stay dry, with some cloudiness Thu).  Fri the 15th looks to be warmer, but not hot.
• Weekend of Aug 16,17:  A stronger system could edge it’s way into the PNW overnight Fri, with some rain or showers across most of western WA Fri night into Sat. Mainly a cloud event for NW OR - and remaining dry.  Sunday trends as pleasant.
• Week of Aug 18-22:  Temps remaining mild for August, with another slight chance for showers late Fri over the Sound.  Don’t bet on this, though.

As you can tell, this projected heat wave will barely make the “qualifying round” of 3 consecutive 90 degree days in the shade (we use the 'old school' definition).  However, in keeping with our foundational premise, when it looked like the heat wave could last 7 days, we encouraged Patrons 'be prepared, just in case'.

🌀 Topical Tropical.  From the may-or-may-not Department, we are monitoring the season's first Atlantic storm that could impact the US.  This tropical wave, developing just off the west coast of Africa around Capo Verde, may deepen and be named ERIN before making a run at the SE Atlantic coast by Aug 20-22.  

The expected Heat Wave remains on schedule, although the charts suggest a slight downward adjustment in just how hot will may get.  Let’s get started.

• This week, Aug 4-8:  Right on track for a couple of days to be cooler that normal for August, with increasing chance of a few showers Tue night through most of Wed the 6th.  Most of the precip will fall north of Portland, although there is an outside chance that roads could be damp for the Wed morning commute north of Salem.  Temps today (Monday), Tue and Fri will be the warmest of the week - say upper 70s to low 80s.
• The Weekend of Aug 9,10:  Start of a 7 day run of 90+ degree afternoons around most of the PNW; slightly cooler for the Puget Sound.  
• Week of Aug 11-15:  HOT - upper 90s to low 100s, although models have tapped down the triple-digit readings we reported in our last report (let’s hope that trend continues).  Warm nights.   Hot in southern BC.
• Aug 16,17 Weekend:  90s, although an onshore flow may begin to moderate the heat as early as Sat the 16th.  Hopefully.
• Week of Aug 18-22:  Indications for a warm-up again by Wed the 20th, mainly over western OR, SW WA.  We’ll see.

All-in-all, a run of 90+ temps for western OR and portions of WA is possible.  It is August, so this can be expected,  Follow all the normal cautions and look out for your neighbors & friends.

(The ’Song of Summer’ is well underway around Albany.)  

A serious Heat Event continues to capture our attention; in the mean time, enjoy the pleasant summer temperatures before Nature’s Oven gets left open. Here’s the breakdown.

• Aug 2,3 weekend:  Warm temps, primarily in the upper 80s, with slightly cooler temps around the Sound.  East side a bit warmer.  More thunderstorms possible to the east, esp late Sunday. 
• Next week, Aug 4-8:  Generally, ‘cool’ for summer, with temps in the 70s under an onshore flow.  Patrons up in the Puget Sound north could get a few showers late Thu the 7th; cloudiness elsewhere in western WA; limited clouds around Oregon.  Enjoy the coolness, as the big heat-up begins soon.
• Weekend of Aug 9,10:  This period will mark the transition into what could be multiple days of triple-digit temps in many west side locations.  Saturday should be in the 90s region wide, excluding the usual ‘bit cooler’ Puget Sound.  Sunday will begin the climb — Medford triple-digit; Willamette Valley & SW WA high 90s.
• Week of Aug 11-15:  MAJOR HEAT WAVE.  Temps this DAILY this week are modeled to climb into the 103-105 range by Wed the 13th (108 Medford).  Overnight lows will be uncomfortable for folks w/o air conditioning (65-73).  Monday of this week will likely be the coolest day - if you want to call it that - at 99.  Again, around the Puget Sound & BC it will likely not be so hot.  (This heat dome is not like the historic Canada-based high pressure ridge of late June 2021.)
• Weekend of Aug 16,17:  Yes, the HEAT WAVE CONTINUES into this weekend.  Triple-digits probable in many west side locations.  

—> The pattern driving the heat wave is NOT modeled to change much when the week of Aug 18 arrives, as an onshore flow has yet to be indicated.  

Too early to confirm every detail of the upcoming Heat Event, but we have seen this pattern on the charts for quite a few days now.  Hence, the forewarning.  Patrons that will be traveling away from home —> make plans this coming week to be sure pets & plants will receive adequate care.  Farm animals will need extra water.  All of us MUST pay attention to neighbors that do not have air conditioning, as this type of heat wave is life-threatening.

Several hot cycles are charting over the next 20 days, with “breaks” in between.  Keep the ice handy.

The upper-level High pressure ‘dome’ currently setting over the SE United States - resulting in triple-digit temps - is charting to shift to the western US in several days.  Be ready for triple-digit temps, esp in western OR & SW WA.  

• This week, July 28-Aug 1:  Turning hot Tue & Wed; temps in the 90s in western OR; high 80s around the Puget Sound.  Cooler in Friday.  Thunderstorms possible along the OR Cascades, with a very slight chance for a storm cell to drift over western valleys on Thu.
• Aug 2,3 weekend:  Pleasant summer temps in the 80s, as an onshore flow taps down summer heat.
• Week of Aug 4-8:  Slowly heating up during the week, with temps rising into the 90s by the end of the week.  Note that southern BC and the far north corner of WA may experience some cloudiness as weak system slides to the east of the BC Coastal Mountains.
• Weekend of Aug 9,10:  Heat build-up continues, with upper 90s the rule in western OR and east side.  Heating up to the north, as well.  Possible for a triple-digit reading in Medford and maybe as far north as Eugene.
• Week of Aug 11-15:  Triple-digit temps in many western locations, including Portland area.  The extreme heat could last 3-4 days.  Latest model runs are tapping down the threat for 103-106 degrees, but that has been on the charts, at times.  Either way, this could shape up to be miserable weather.  Southern BC will also be hot.

We will monitor this situation closely, per usual, and keep Patrons posted as to what could become a major summer weather event. 

Obviously, around the PNW, Summer months are supposed to be dry, yet a good rain here & there is refreshing (the last general rain was June 14).  The rainy weekend that some model solutions projected for the first weekend of August has been shifted a few days later - if at all.  Anyway, let’s take a look.

• July 25 - Sunday the 27th:  Pleasant weekend ahead - temps will be tapped down a few degrees as an onshore flow, under a cool upper-level Low, passes over southern BC.  Sunday will likely be the warmer day.
• Next week, July 28 - Aug 1:   Given a S-to SE flow aloft, it will heat up again early in the week, with humidity bumping up, as well.  The pattern also brings on afternoon thunderstorms over the eastern basins and the Cascades.  Some of these storms could migrate out over the western valleys.  Most of this action, if it develops, will take place Wed-Fri.  Idaho may also pick up a storm or two.
• Weekend of Aug 2,3:  Now trending warmer than the previous week.  Thunderstorm threat diminished.
• Week of Aug 4-8:  This is when models are bringing down some moisture out of the Gulf of Alaska - MAYBE.  Temps will be warm early in the week, with the chance for rain - mainly over western WA - arriving Tue night on through early Fri.  OR could pick up some raindrops Thu and/or Fri.  This whole pattern change is quite uncertain.  
• Weekend of Aug 9,10:  Dry with pleasant temps on Sat; turning warmer Sunday.  Region could be setting up for another hot spell that next week.

—> The primary aspect of this long-range forecast is whether or not the PNW gets raindrops from a Low pressure system that may move close to the west coast from the Gulf of Alaska.  Right now, we are going to call it a ‘coin toss’ — 50/50 chance.  Otherwise, raindrops won’t fall on anyone’s head.  Stay tuned, Patron.