Subtraction

Per usual, models have changed a few features of the long-range outlook; so shall we.  All set?  ☕️

The weekend rain has passed, as expected, with wx conditions this week matching earlier forecasts.  Today, a weak system provides rain over central/north Vancouver Island, but that will pass through overnight (snow in the Coastal Mountains of BC).  For the rest of the PNW, expect dry conditions through Tue before a rapidly moving front crosses western WA north, bringing rain/showers for a few hours; continued dry over OR and the eastern basins of WA & OR.  Come Thu, the leading edge (warm front) of the next large storm will usher in steady rain over Vancouver Island.  Overnight Thu the cold front associated with that large storm will bring on moderate-to-heavy rain over the Island and on into the PNW by the morning commute on Friday.  Wind will increase as Fri the 24th progresses.  It will be 'Wet City' all day Friday.

The coming weekend will be a continuance of the Fri storm, with colder air moving in, increasing winds and plenty of rain through all of Saturday.  By Sunday morning, the winds should diminish along with the steady rain; Sunday could end up chilly, but mostly dry.  Snow in the Cascades will be the heaviest of the season, to date.  Travelers beware. Overnight Sunday the 26th, another fast moving front will add to the cumulative precipitation around the PNW.  

Complicated.  For the week of Oct 27-31, models have removed of couple of the storms we mentioned in our last report.  Subtraction.  Meaning, the Sunday night/Monday morning system will likely be the LAST until Thu the 30th.  In place of rain, the PNW will hammered with strong east winds, because a heavy (1044 mb) High Pressure Dome will position itself over the Continental Divide, creating a powerful storm to the east —> for the upper plain states and midwest - and very strong winds over the west —> WA, OR, NV, CA, AZ.  This event could be a newsmaker, should it verify.  (Fortunately, the earlier rains should prevent any forest fire issues in the PNW, but NOT for the other states).  

This will not be an Arctic Event around the PNW, as the airmass will not be ‘Arctic Cold’.  Therefore, expect a shot of outflow from the Fraser Gap (not cold) beginning Tue Oct 28 as the 1035 mb Dome shifts to the SE towards the Continental Divide.  WINDS will increase down the Columbia Gorge (powerful) and down the passes of the Cascades, both OR & WA towards the west.  Northern CA will also get slammed by this wind system, so passes through the Sierra Nevada Range will be extremely windy.  All that said, the winds will diminish by Thu morning, as another Pacific storm returns some rain to the PNW.  A repeat storm will also arrive early Halloween morning, but not impact OR so much, as most of the precip will fall north of Portland.  Good snow in the WA Cascades with this system.  Breezy.  

Weekend of Nov 1,2 looks DRY & mild.  A drenching rain returns late Tue November 5.

From 2007, “Some people get all their mental exercise by climbing up and down molehills."