So Close

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday December 6
Adjustment.  Modification.  Change.  That’s what you expect when your morn’n Mug is refilled, and you settle in to read the latest forecast outlook.  Well, here goes —
A dusting of snow did fall over the lowlands of NW WA last Friday, as the first tease of The White arrived up north.  Will the rest of us receive snow soon?  That’s part of the modification today.  Models are pooling the cold Alaskan air over the Gulf, but dropping it farther south, OFF THE COAST, rather than turning it inland over OR & WA.  At least that has been the model run trend the past 2 days.  However, overall pattern continues to follow our previous forecasts, with that ‘less change of snow at the surface’ adjustment.  
OK, the details.  Rain today will let up later today over OR, drying out up north, too.  It will be December cool on Tue.  The next system arrives from the NW before sunrise Wed, with rain, wind, mountain snow and cooler conditions by Thu.  Don’t rule out another shot of The White north of Seattle late Thu into Fri Dec 9,10 as the pattern is quite similar to last week.  Temps over Oregon will also trend lower, so foothill snow showers are definitely possible overnight Thu into Fri.  Patrons located above 800-1,200 ft could get decent dusting of snow, esp from Salem north.  Rain/snow mix at the surface remains possible south to Eugene.
The weekend of Dec 11,12:  A much stronger storm, from the NW, is charting to rapidly roll into the PNW overnight Fri the 10th.  This will be a WINDY storm, so hold on.  Right now, the chance for low elevation snow after the cold front passes has lessened, as the coldest pool of air will remain offshore (heading towards CA - see below).  Snow in the mountains above 2,000 ft will be HEAVY.  NE wind is possible by Mon Dec 13, but the air mass east of the mountains is not going to be super cold (as this is not a classic Arctic shot event).  That said, as moisture moves in from the west, snow showers or rain/snow mixed will definitely be teasing lots of folks west side of the mountains, esp above 800 - 1,000 ft.  As the colder air moves south off the coast, the NE winds will let up as the PNW will dry out a little before the next storm.  Frost & Icy roads possible Wed morning, Dec 15.  The rest of that week is charting as showery, with snow above 1,000 ft and snow/rain mixed down to surface in the heavier showers remaining possible.
A brisk NE-E wind will pick-up through the Fraser & Columbia Gaps through the weekend of Dec 18,19 - and continuing into the start of Christmas week.  This will not be a strong outflow, but definitely one to help keep the fog bank away.  
Christmas Week: early peek now indicating the chance for a quick shot of rain, Tue Dec 21, then drying for a couple of days.  Could be a bit warmer, too. 
California:  Your turn.  Lots of RAIN, wind and relatively low elevation snow is charting for several days - beginning overnight Sunday Dec 12.  Nearly continuous blustery, WET weather through the whole week of Dec 13-17, and portions of the following weekend.  Inverted umbrella time.  Localized flooding probable.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service alerts.
☕️ Second Cup:  it would only take a couple hundred mile shift in the cold air over the Gulf of Alaska & eastern Pacific to bring us valley snow between now and Dec 20.  Let’s see how all this develops.  There will be FEET of snow for the Ski Resorts, bringing smiles to all those that love the Slopes. 
“You just can’t beat the person who never gives up.” - Babe Ruth
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