The White Returns

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday February 17
Well, it’s back - the forecast is for SNOW.  Get a hot morn’n beverage ready, and sip on. 
This weekend will be relatively mild, with the chance for a little rain or showers, esp north of Salem; NW WA & southern BC will be damp at times, with a few hours of dry sprinkled about.  The big change begins Monday, with a very high probability for SNOW across the entire PNW as next week unfolds.  Long-winded details next.  Keep your Mug full.
Recall that throughout the nearly 29 years of writing here, we stress that longer-range, 10-day model solutions often shift back & forth, with older solutions ending up being the most accurate.  Well, our Ponder Point written Feb 10 may end up being the 'real thing’.   We pondered about a very SNOWY, COLD end to February was being crafted by the wx models; that has returned as a solution for the next couple of weeks.  
The Set Up.  (Stay with us on this.)  A ‘double dome’ combination of High pressure zones will merge on Monday - one over the northern Gulf of Alaska, the other over the interior of Canada.  The result will be a Low pressure trough pinched between the merging domes that will initiate windy, wet weather over the PNW starting late Monday.  Idaho, MT, WY will get snow right off, the PNW will turn much COLDER overnight Mon as that Low (in simple terms) reforms off the coast of WA & OR and essentially ‘parks' there from Tue through Thu.  
The Result.  On & off SNOW showers for all west side locations is probable for 3 days.  The higher, cumulative accumulations are likely from Longview to Ashland, but everyone should get an inch or two, at least, if all this model projection verifies.  (Some models suggest 5” to 10” in western OR.  Really?)  We should add that several different models are assembling a similar solution for next week.  As that Low spins to our west, COLD modified Arctic Air will gush out across the mountain passes and the usual Fraser & Columbia Gaps.  Burrrr.   Low temps should range from upper teens to low 20s, west side, in wind sheltered areas.  The wind should diminish by late Fri, and that Low will bring cold rain and possibly news-making low elevation snow to California. 
A new system is charting to drop in from the BC coast by Sat night Feb 25, with rain, rain/snow mix, or just plain snow across the PNW.  California will get in on the rain as that storm tracks  south.  Some solutions swing that same Low up into eastern OR by Tue Feb 28, with snow east side.  Long-range outlook is for March to start out very much like our weather next week - damp, snowy and cold.  Let’s winter through next week first.  
🔺Winter is likely to slam the west coast again.  Travel plans will be impacted, both air & road.  School delays and/or closures will also impact work routines.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings specific to your location, because they will, indeed, vary from our 'broad overview' type forecasts here at The Weather Café®️
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