Warm Spell may be Gone

Monday February 5 - Nat’l Weatherperson Day

Yep.  Today marks the birthday of John Jeffries, born in 1744, a man recognized as one of the United States’ first weather observers that kept daily weather measurements, starting when he was 30 yrs old, 1774.

Overall weather pattern for the next couple of weeks has shifted a bit, so that’s see what the changes are.  Mainly, we’re not seeing a definite ‘warming period’ for now.  That could return, as models often rebound to earlier progs.  The moisture today is actually associated with the big storm that hit CA this weekend.  Wrap-around clouds & rain moving up from the S.  This will trail off today, leaving the PNW cool & mostly dry through this week.  A shower or two will remain possible, esp Wed and late Thu night into Fri.  California will begin drying out for a week or so before more heavy rainfall after Valentine’s Day.

This coming weekend is trending a weak front moving over western WA & BC, but not too organized.  So, expect a shower or two in the Evergreen State.  Mild for OR.  

A damp system is now charting for Tue Feb 13 and should exit by the morning of Valentine’s Day.  Some cloudiness, but dry, Feb 15,16 to end that week.  Late Fri Feb 16, a large ’trough’ of stormy weather over the Gulf of Alaska will begin moving towards the west coast.  Right now, models drive the bulk of the rain & snow into California during the following week, which leaves the PNW in a zone where the leading ‘rain field’ is stretched out along the coasts of OR & WA, rather than making a direct shot onshore.  Therefore, for today, let’s call for a chance of some rain (west side only) during the weekend of Feb 17,18 with mild temps around the region.  

Week of Feb 19-23 looks WET for all of the west coast.  As noted, CA will again be slammed by the ‘El Niño’ pattern of heavy rain & mountain snow.  Flooding issues are likely to return to the Golden State.  Road crews will be playing catch-up again.

The pattern projected above does not favor a substantial addition to the snowpack across the Cascades, with limited February snow held up above pass levels.