A Cautionary Tale?

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday September 3
New month and the beginning of the “meteorological fall” season.  Is precipitation on the way?  Fill your Mug before reading the answer.  
Labor Day Weekend:  a cooler, showery pattern arrives on Saturday, mainly over western WA & southern BC.  Sunday will be a transition day back to WARM sunshine on Labor Day.  Warm, dry conditions will continue through Tue, with Wed ushering in the possibility for thundershowers over portions of the Cascades (OR, primarily).  Mild conditions Thu & Fri, with wind late in the period.
As the following weekend (Sept 11,12) approaches, another weak system may drop in from the NW, so expect clouds to increase with the chance for showers - this time over a larger area of the PNW - as that Low spins over N Vancouver Island by Nine-Eleven.  << we will never forget >>   Not a washout, just the chance for wet pavement, at times.  That written, please note, there are solutions that keep the Low farther offshore as it drops south, ushering in a muggy, thunderstorm-type pattern, with WARM temps, esp for OR & eastern basins.  The wind mentioned below may start early.  Read on.
A cautionary tale. The middle week of September is trending on the windy side — with a relatively strong Low moving down the coast of BC, setting up possible showers early in the week, or even steady rain over NW WA, then WINDY conditions for OR as that week nears an end.  Actually, a notable ridge of High pressure may begin building over the Yukon and drop south, with WINDS really picking up for much of the PNW by Thu night or Fri.  Pattern could mean WIND trouble for fire concerns in OR, CA & ID.  Pressure gradients are charting in the “oh my” category, if verified, for Fri Sep 17.  Let’s hope for model error.
Temperatures will warm again as that air mass compresses and heads for the coast.  Warm conditions (upper 80s OR, bit cooler for the Sound) Sunday Sep 19 that may hold into the middle of the next week.  Gusty NE winds in western valleys.  Quite stormy over the US Midwest, as that 9-11 system mentioned above rolls out of the Rocky Mountain states to stir up a windy, wet mess.  And, oh, there could be a tropical storm playing games with us in the Gulf of Mexico.  Yikes.
Bottom line: the PNW may actually get into a brief period when showers & some rain arrives.  At least there’s a higher chance than what we have seen since last June.  The wind concern will not be like last year, but definitely a potential that would not be good for firefighters.
Update on The 2021 Walk to End Alzheimer’s - Sept 25.  Our WxCafé Patrons are simply awesome!  With 3 weeks to go, over $2,700 has been contributed to this important cause.  THANK YOU!  Every donation makes a difference, no matter the amount.  We will update again next Fri. 
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