Friday November 5
It was back in November of 1994 that we started The Weather Café®️. Over 2,800 forecasts have been produced these past 27 years. There is no claim of special ability to ‘beat the odds’ and always be right; rather, we simply discuss what may happen weather-wise, providing the reader time to prepare for big weather events, just in case model projections are correct. Thousands have benefited from this free community service over the decades. You’ve told us so. There, the horn has been blown, now back to the forecast. Mug refilled?
A normal November stormy pattern will continue for the PNW over the next several days. Rain & showers on tap for the weekend, with breezy conditions, at times. By Sunday, the air aloft will be the coldest of the season. Such an unstable atmosphere can set off thunderstorms, small hail and wind gusts. Stay alert, if outside this weekend.
There is the potential for a MAJOR WIND EVENT come late Monday, early Tue next week. A Low may form SW of OR and rapidly deepen before it crosses the 130W line (discussed in an earlier update). If this system does, indeed, develop, as a few solutions suggest, it could produce powerful WINDS, esp over western OR. Maybe exceeding the 50 mph of our last blast in the Willamette Valley. The precise track of big wind producing storms is key, as you know. Right now, models indicating this Low (some do not), track it as a tightly packed storm - center pressure of 976-982 mb - turning N inside the 130W line and coming onshore between northern CA (no big wind in OR, bad in northern CA) and Vancouver Island (big wind in OR and/or SW WA) overnight Mon Nov 8. Heed Nat’l Wx Service statements, should they be posted over the weekend. Moderate-to-heavy rain from northern CA to Vancouver Island. Patron, be prepared.
A second wind producer, but not quite as powerful, is modeled for Wed morning, Nov 10. This one charts ‘landfall' over southern Vancouver Island. Definitely windy & quite WET into Wed night. Veteran’s Day (Thu) could bring on a short rain break before another long-stretch of rain moves into NW WA. Southwest WA, OR & ID may miss out on the rainy part, staying dry (foggy, in places) through the weekend of Nov 13,14.
The week of Nov 15 still looks very wet, blustery early on, then turning drier & colder. Before more rain, wind & below-mountain-pass snow return the weekend before Thanksgiving.
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