Colder Wx Possible

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Halloween 2022
Boo!  Colder weather on the way, with the threat for snow/rain mixed over NW WA late in the forecast period.  Mug up.
The wet pattern will continue on & off for the next couple of weeks.  Key will be the positions of Low pressure ‘cells’ moving in from the Pacific along with a colder air mass pooling over the interior of BC.  For the next 24 hrs, moderate-to-heavy rain is expected over OR today, with showers & possible thunderstorms on Tue for all the region.  Clearing by Thu morning will mean FROST possible, both sides of the Cascades.  California will receive a bit of rain early this week, as well.  Another wet system moves into the PNW from the NW on Fri, so NW WA & Vancouver Is. will wet first.  Rain will spread into OR & ID overnight Fri.
The coming weekend looks to turn colder, as the back side of Friday's storm drops across the region on Saturday.  WET & blustery.  Overnight Sat, colder air will be combined with the moisture to set off snow/rain mixed showers, esp north of Chehalis.  Wow, that’s early.   Cold showers for the rest of the PNW, with snow levels dropping well below the passes from the central OR Cascades north.  A bit of drying on Mon the 7th before another Pacific storm arrives on Election Day.  This one could be interesting in that cold, ‘winter air’ will pool and be threatening to push out of the Fraser Gap, mixing with the moisture from the west.  Not saying a snow event, but it will be close temperature-wise for Bellingham north.  WINDY either way on Tue & Wed, Nov 8,9.  Rain will fall across the entire PNW, as well.  
There are two scenarios for what happens after Election Day.  Stay with us.  One scenario re-introduces the chance for colder air to push out of the Fraser Gap, keeping snow levels just above sea level in the far NW corner of WA, with a chilly rain elsewhere.  In addition, by the weekend of Nov 12,13, that cold air from the Yukon & interior Canada will rapidly flow into the central USA, setting of all kinds of rough weather, from WIND to SNOW in many places in the heartland.  For the PNW, that weekend is trending DRY and relatively mild, as the colder air heads east.  The other scenario keeps the PNW mild with a couple of STRONG WIND storms after Election Day heading into the weekend of Nov 12, 13; holding back that cold Fraser Outflow, with the snow flake tease, until Sunday the 13th and chilly afterward.  We’ll update all this as the time nears.
Bottom line: colder weather is possible in November.  Not too unusual, but compared to the very mild pattern in October, the change will be abrupt.  Pull the heavy coats out of the closet; they may be needed.
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