Dry First Half

Wrapping up the first month of 2024 (sure zipped by fast).  Nice to start a new day with full Mug ☕️.  Got it?

Record high temps yesterday for many locations around the Great PNW (and most likely today, as well, if the fog clears).  Sadly, flooding continues up along the WA state & Canadian border.  More rain on the way there, while the rest of us have dry & WARM today & part of Tue.  A shift back to damp & cool weather will begin late Tue on through the rest of the week.  Colder air will move in behind the primary front that will bring steady rain & showers back to the entire west coast on Wed & Thu.  This particular system will get stretched out, so it will be California that gets the brunt of the heavy rainfall.  

There will NOT be an outflow out of the Fraser Gap, as models hold the cold High pressure dome primarily over the Alaskan interior.  However, the eastern edge of a cold air mass over the Gulf of Alaska will be drawn down into the PNW beginning Thu.  Snow will begin again where we like it - in the mountains - later on Thu.

Going Dry.  As noted, the main focus of the mid-week storm will move into CA, so we can expect heavy rain over Vancouver Is to cease, and not too much rain or snow for the rest of the PNW as Friday draws to a close.  Chilly again, so enjoy the Spring-like temps the next couple of days.  Rain will be the main story over CA Sunday all the way through the first full week of February.  The PNW will turn mostly DRY & cool for the first weekend of February and through the 9th.  Foggy bottoms likely, so be cautious.  An E-to-NE breeze will kick-up Monday evening.  Showers may return to Vancouver Is., southern BC and eastern WA by the end of next week.   

The Feb 10,11 weekend is trending DRY on the charts.  Warmer temps, as well.  The dry & mild conditions are modeled to hold on through the second full week of February (12-16).  Should this scenario hold, the ‘awakening’ of plants out of winter mode could begin.  That’s fine, if another cold snap doesn’t happen.  Early bud-break for various PNW crops is not necessarily a good thing.  

Bottom line: it may turn dry for the entire first half of the second month of 2024.