Opposite Outlook

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday April 29
Our Monday Mug tag line may garner Patron curiosity, so refill that Mug and read on for the explanation.
Of course, Nature has a way of doing its ‘own thing’ verses what weather models project.  Forecasting from long-range models does, indeed, elevate the risk of being wrong,  We are never afraid of such error, but it does frustrate many Patrons that plan activities based on our forecasts, only to have actual weather conditions go the opposite way.  
As you know, we have been speaking of a reasonable stretch of 5-6 days of sunny, warm Spring weather coming soon.  Well Patron, the latest model solutions have drifted away from that forecast by indicating COOL, damp conditions being the primary solution for the next week and a half.  Sometimes, the model scenarios do shift back to earlier solutions, so there is always hope.  Dare to read on?
Cold air aloft will be the rule for the next 48 hrs, so expect showers, some developing into thunderstorms with small hail, wind gusts, and lightning.  Soil temps will not warm.  On Wed May 1, daylight hours should be mostly dry and a bit warmer, although another shot of rain/showers will arriving overnight into early Thu morning.  Clearing on Thu, with additional warming and more sunshine on Friday.  Temps should rebound into the 60s.  Soils will begin warming.
The coming weekend is looking rather damp, but mild (60s) in the temperature dept.  A Low will move south off the coast of OR, with ‘wrap-around’ clouds & moisture moving north from interior CA & NV, with the chance for thunderstorms included.  Sunday will be the wettest day, with that moisture moving up over most of WA & ID, as well.  
The week of May 6 - 10 looks damp & mostly cloudy, turning a bit cooler mid-week.  No dry warm-up is indicated now until - maybe - Fri May 10.  The weekend of May 11,12 is now trending DRY and warm (upper 60s to mid-70s).
Chilly, wet condition return AGAIN on Monday May 13 for another round of below average temps and showers at least through mid-week.  
Bottom line: per current charting, the soonest a run of 2-4 days of dry, warm wx will not arrive until after May 9.  Cumulative Heat Units (Day Degrees) will likely remain below normal for early May.
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