Swinging

As stated, next week is trending mostly dry, esp early on, with warm temperatures by Tue — upper 70s to low 80s probable, region-wide.  Models do hint at a swing back to increasing clouds & a slight chance for light showers over the far NW corner of WA & Vancouver Is.  This is charting as a weak system, only clipping the NW corner of WA & southern BC; therefore, let’s go with this being a cloud event, rather than rain/showers.  Sip.  For the rest of the PNW (and everywhere else after Tue), expect next week to be mostly sunny and mild; temps in the 70s.  

There is a southerly flow component on the charts for overnight Fri May 9, which would suggest elevated humidity in general, chance for east side & Cascade showers/thunderstorm specifically, throughout the weekend of May 10,11.  Gone is the strong wind issue for the eastern basins.  For the weekend of May 10,11 we expect mostly dry, with some showers/thunderstorms east of the Cascades, with increasing chance for rain/showers/thunderstorm across the entire PNW as the week of May 12 gets underway.  This damp, but mild, pattern could last through the entire week, May 12-16.  Soils will likely become too wet to work, and plant disease pressure is likely to elevate, so plan accordingly should that pattern verify.  We’ll know more a week from now.

Reason for the above outlook: a large Low pressure trough offshore - that was modeled to move onshore over southern OR during that weekend - is now charting to remain offshore as it moves farther south, before essentially ‘parking’ just off the northern CA coast for a couple of days.  The implications of this change is for region-wide muggy temps, spotty thunderstorm activity (both sides of the Cascades) and multiple days of measurable precipitation.  That’s the set-up right now.  

We do see a dry weekend for May 17,18.  Warmer.