The Stall

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Spring Equinox 2023
As Monday springs forth (yeah, weak, but had to write it), let’s check out the model outlook for the rest of March.
Showers today will diminish as the afternoon wears on.  A strong, WET system is moving into CA by tomorrow.  Wow, another heavy rain & wind event for the Golden State.  The PNW will catch a rain-break Tue & Wed, with partly cloudy sky and sun breaks.  Temps will be a bit on the cool side.  More ‘feels like winter' precipitation arrives on Thu the 23rd.  Damp & quite chilly for March, with snow levels dropping below the passes yet again.  Breezy.  Fri and Sat should be more dry than wet; continued cooler than normal.  The Low pressure center that we expected on Sunday Mar 26 is now modeled to remain offshore, tracking south towards - you guessed it - California and then truly ’stall out’ for almost a week off the coast.  
The Stall.  Several surface fronts will spin off the large trough of Low pressure that is charting to park off coast of northern CA for the entire last week of March.  Net result for the PNW will be mostly dry over WA, BC & ID on Monday & Tue next week; rain and/or showers over OR.  A band of moisture spinning off that Low may track north into WA & eastern basins, including ID on Wed Mar 29.  
On Thu, the CA Low will be re-enforced by another Low dropping in from the Gulf of Alaska, which will continue to ‘hold’ a trough off the CA coast as the month of April gets underway.  For the PNW, some moisture may move onshore Thu the 29th, as that second Low merges with the stalled one noted above.  It should turn dry again by Fri the last day of March.
April Fool’s Day - looks VERY WET for California.  Moisture from the parked Low will also spin north into OR & WA on Sat Apr 1.  Wet again around our region on Sunday the 2nd, as well.  We see showers diminishing by Monday Apr 3rd as the seemingly forever wet system off CA finally fills in and ends the drenching of CA.  Long way out, but it looks relatively dry Mon, Tue, Wed as the first week of April ticks by.
Of course, the stalled out Low pressure trough could hold position a bit farther north, which would bring lots of rain to the PNW.  That has not been consistently charted, so we’ll go with the forecast above.  Overall, a chilly start for the Spring of 2023.
From the ’Net:  “Little known fact: Before the crowbar was invented, crows simply drank at home."
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