Too Dry

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday September 16
Well, the long-range outlook continues to frustrate ‘rain-seekers’.  Let’s take a peek.
A Low pressure trough will move south off the coast this weekend.  Problem is, the Low will track too far west to bring steady rain over OR/WA.  We will not rule out a shower here & there later Saturday evening into Sunday morning primarily Salem south.   Coastal areas, esp south of Coos Bay, could be in for higher amounts of precip.  That Low is charting to track closer to the Bay Area of CA early next week to become relatively stationary as it ‘fills in’ and dissipates.  If that happens, expect some precipitation to spin northward into southern OR and/or along the Cascades.  
We are going with DRY & mild-to-warm conditions to continue through next week.  Sunshine should prevail, with temperatures climbing into the high 70s to low 80s, at times.  Overnight lows may be on the chilly side, though.  Windy in the far eastern WA & ID region Tue & Wed.  A weak system may track over western WA on Friday, but no rain is expected, as this will likely remain a Puget Sound cloud event, with cooler temps.  Mild in OR.
Unfortunately for rain-seekers, the weekend of Sep 24,25 is trending DRY as any Low pressure trough that develops should track south well offshore.  Temps will be mild (70s mostly).  The following week (Sep 26-30) is also trending DRY & mild, as the rain-bands, if you will, should remain too far west over the Pacific to provide our region much needed precipitation.  Fall wine & concord grape harvest should begin with favorable conditions.  No frost foreseen.  By Thu or Fri Sep 29, 30, the Low pressure trough will move south west of the Bay Area (sound familiar?) keeping the PNW dry until the first weekend of October.
Yes, now the wx models suggest rain could arrive by the Oct 1,2 weekend.  We’ll see.
???? Topical Tropical: FIONA is currently a tropical storm (TS) and moving towards the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands.  By the time FIONA arrives northwest of Hispaniola, it will deepen to potentially cause issues with the Bahamas.  Right now, we see the storm becoming a strong hurricane, but, as with the others this season, it will drift NW and then NE over the Atlantic to remain a ‘Fish Storm’.  FL and the eastern seaboard should be spared.  Stay tuned, though, as wx charts are so variable.
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