Winter's Slow Exit

When wx models miss the target by 50-100 miles, most people never notice.  BUT, if snow is involved, whoa, the error has large impact.  Such was the case these past few days, as the secondary Low we mentioned in our Monday discussion did form & stall farther north, which triggered more plenty of The White in many locations.  Winter is not done yet, so refill that morn’n beverage, and take in our ’spin’.

COLD, pleasant sunny day ahead, with Saturday starting out dry, as well.   Subfreezing temps are evident just about everywhere across the PNW.  Cold, heavy air now in place, so it will take a decent southerly flow to push it out of the area.  This is important because the next cold front is due to arrive Saturday afternoon over Vancouver Is & BC, then move south overnight Saturday.  All indications are for MORE SNOW at the surface in many locations, esp above 500 ft to start, then turn to mostly snow after the front passes.  Expect to see The White falling on Sunday.  There may be a small ‘pocket’ excluded from the surface snow south of Salem, but that could easily change, as we have just seen.

More moisture moving in from the west on Monday, Feb 27.  This system will be warmer at its core, but may not be strong enough to push all of the heavy, cold surface air out of the way as the moisture moves inland.  We’ll advise to be ready for another shot of low elevations snowfall west side as the Low approaches landfall around the mouth of the Columbia River.  FREEZING RAIN could also be a factor in areas farther away from the Columbia Gorge outflow zone.  With another Low approaching along a similar track, although a bit farther north, Tue Feb 28 presents a ‘repeat’ play to Monday’s system.  It is quite possible that enough warmer air aloft will mitigate frozen precip issues by Tue afternoon, except for elevations about 1,500 ft or so.  Temps will continue below normal.

Wed Mar 1st is trending DRY and on the chilly side.  Thu & Fri Mar 2,3 look damp, with surface rain and snow potentially as low as 1,000 ft, esp north of Portland.  The first weekend of March is trending dry and a tad warmer on Saturday, with another WET system expected by Sunday, as a Low tracks north offshore from the south.  Typical March storm.  Good news, is that we see a drying trend showing up on the charts for Tue Mar 7 through the following weekend of Mar 11,12.  That weekend is looking MILD and very Spring-like!