Wipers On

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Halloween 2023
Good morn’n, Patron ☕️.  Before we discuss the drenching rains on the way, please accept a personal update.  Many of you have been so gracious with comforting ‘well wishes’ during this past week.  It was not our intent to take “under the weather” to such an extreme!  Mug full?
Personal:  Tomorrow marks the 29th anniversary of this community service venture.  We have rarely missed publishing The Weather Café®️ every Monday & Friday, rain or shine, holidays or illness.  Last weekend, we experienced a life-threatening abdominal event that strikes without warning.  A similar event took place in Oct 2008 - as many of you may recall - that confined us to a Florida hospital ‘vacation' for 21 days.  A literal side effect of that event some 15 yrs ago, is directly responsible for the prompt trip to ER on the 23rd for an emergency surgery, from which recovery is never just an overnight stay.  Well, we finally discharged from hospital Monday afternoon.  Again, THANK YOU for the kind words of support & friendship.  Our Patrons are a quiet cohort that speak up to bless us at times.  Mug cold?  Let’s get to it.
Halloween 2023 will be a chilly, 'dry costume' end to October.  The drenching rains of November will begin on Wed Nov 1.  The precip may hold off until nightfall in some areas, the afternoon in others, either way, models indicate the potential for multiple inches of rain from coast to Cascades across the entire PNW.  WINDY, too.  But wait, there’s more.
A short break in the rain is possible on Fri the 3rd, before another wet period from Sat through Tue, Nov 4-7.  Temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler in that period.  Right now, Wed & the front portion of Thu (Nov 8,9) next week are trending dry.  Then, WHAM, another super-wet strike from the Pacific.  Should models verify (!), the amount of moderate-to-heavy rainfall across the entire PNW from overnight Thu the 7th through Monday Nov 13th could be unrelenting!!  WINDY, too.  We can only hope that long-range models are incorrect, as the event could be a 'mirror image' of the serious impact-flooding experienced in Nov 2006.  What will help minimize the excessive flow of water down the slopes and across the valleys is that freezing levels should drop low enough to ’trap’ mountain precip as snow, mid-weekend Nov 11,12.  The snow could begin falling as low at the coast range by Mon Nov 13.  Good.
It will NOT dry out the week of Nov 13-17, it will simply turn colder, with low snow levels.  A warmer, more westerly flow is possible by the weekend of Nov 18,19.  However, should a ridge of High pressure push north over the Gulf of Alaska, we could be in for a notable COLD SNAP.  Stay tuned.
Bottom line: a news-making amount of water is about to fall.  The possibility for 5”-13” of precip across the entire region in the first 2 weeks of November could be epic.  Low snow levels are a must to mitigate flood issues, of which there will be.  Fallen leaves will plug storm drains - help out by safely by raking away, if you can.  The typical flood-zones will be impacted.  Prepare now.  As you know, our intent is not to sensationalize, but to have you prepared, just in case.
Stop by again on Friday.
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