Time for our last sip of morn’n beverage together in 2022.  Mug up!

The wx pattern to start the New Year will be ’standard fare’ for the PNW in the winter: a mix of rain, breezes, clouds and, yes, a bit of sunshine.  Overall, we can expect rain and/or showers for a day or so separated by dry conditions.  Cloud cover on the dry time could limit the number of decent sunny days for the next 2 weeks.  

For the holiday weekend, the rain/showers for today (Fri) will diminish as we head into Saturday.  Most of both Sat & Sunday should be dry.  Temperatures mild.  As the first week of the New Year gets underway, it should remain dry until early Tue, when a slight threat for showers (mostly over western OR) may dampen activities.  

The entire west coast, from southern Alaska to northern Baja, will experience an on/off wet cycle for the January 3rd through 15th period.  Systems will arrive like clockwork every 24-36 hrs, dry in between.  Note: California will receive most of the moderate-to-heavy periods of rain (WINDY, too!) from each of the January storms.  Similarly, temperatures will continue mild for a winter month.

We will post a brief update on New Year’s Day.  Happy Twenty Twenty Three.

From the ’Net: “A new study shows that the most expensive vehicle to operate is a Shopping Cart."

A stormy week ahead, with the strongest wind storm in quite some time arriving overnight tonight through Tue.  Preparation is key to minimizing impact.  Post-Christmas week promises to be quite active in regards to weather.  Currently, a powerful storm is brewing to the west.  Mug ready?

Sip.  Our big wind storms typically approach the OR/WA coast from the southwest, turning northward ’inside the 130W”, as we wrote last week, before making landfall somewhere over OR, WA or southern Vancouver Island.  The center barometric pressure of the big wind storms ranges from 956 mb (Columbus Day Storm, Oct 12, 1962) to around 972 mb.  Obviously, there are other atmospheric attributes that must be met, but the basic “alert” to a strong wind potential is the depth of the Low and where it makes landfall; just like a hurricane.  

Our current threat is modeled to deepen to around 967 mb before slowly ’filling in’ to 970-973 mb as it lands roughly between Long Beach WA and southern Vancouver Is.  The central Low is oblong shaped, rather than circular - kind of a double Low - which is our protection, in a manner of speaking, for it helps to spread out storm energy & weaken impact a bit.  The Low will is modeled to become more circular & tighten in shape before landfall, with a powerful WIND FIELD.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches and warnings, as this storm carries the potential to have economic impact regionally, esp following the heavy rains and ice storm.

We forecast OR coast winds gusting 80-95 mph; Willamette Valley gusts could exceed 55-60 mph; western WA is not out of the woods on this, but the Low may position itself to present a weaker wind field over the Puget Sound (yet strong enough winds to cause power-issues).  Expect WINDS to pick-up after midnight tonight and bluster through much of Tue.  Strongest gusts may arrive before daylight Tue.  POWER OUTAGES are quite likely, so if you are rural and on a well system, it might be prudent to fill the bathtub for water to flush toilets, so as not to waste potable water.  

Moderate-to-heavy rain is also part of this storm pattern, with over an inch of rain possible in the Willamette Valley from this system; more in the coast & Cascades ranges.  Flood prone areas need to be monitored closely.

The next wet system is due to arrive sometime Wed night, followed by another very WINDY STORM overnight Thu into Fri (mostly an OR event); this one will not be as strong as the Tue event.  As New Year’s weekend gets underway, a New Year’s Eve storm will barrel into north/central CA.  

The PNW will catch a break from all the rain & wind on both Sat & Sunday, New Year’s Day.  RAIN returns to start the first work & school week of 2023.  Keep the rain gear handy.

☕️☕️ Second Cup:  watch & tap your home barometer often!  The faster the pressure falls, along with how fast it rises following front passage, is a clue to wind strength.  A deep, narrow “V” shape pattern indicate a strong wind field possible.  The Portland Nat’l Wx Service team mentions the possibility for ’STING JET’ wind gusts to slap the western OR after the windy front passes (search for Sting Jet for details; it is fascinating wx geek stuff).

Ice Rinks, Snow Fields, Downed Trees - geez, what a winter event that has unfolded across the entire PNW and, indeed, the entire Nation.  Word is that over 12,500 flights are cancelled nationally, right when folks want to be with family & friends.  We’d like to be holiday-brief this morning, but there is another potentially serious wx episode about to strike the PNW this coming week.  Mug up, Patron.

Let’s dwell on the future.  Christmas Eve & Day will be WET around the PNW, with sub-tropical moisture setting off moderate-to-heavy rain first over NW WA & BC on Saturday, spreading south as the holiday period is underway.  Warm rain will mitigate the ice/snow issues at the surface, while compounding potential flood issues with rapid snow/ice melt combined with inches water from the sky.  Rain will let up briefly later on Sunday, but return Monday, particularly over OR and northern CA.

 

Monday night into Tuesday, Dec 26,27.  HEAVY RAIN for much of western OR & northern CA, including the Bay Area.  A couple inches are possible in the Willamette Valley, more over the slopes of the coast & Cascade ranges.  Here’s the kicker:  models are suggesting a DANGEROUS WIND EVENT is possible early Tue.  A strong storm, currently over northern Japan, will race across the Pacific during Christmas weekend before moving “inside the 130” west of OR or WA (or maybe Vancouver Island).

For Patrons that are relatively new to our program, whenever a Pacific storm Low pressure center deepens and crosses the 130th meridian west line of longitude, residents of the OR, WA or both, may experience very powerful WIND STORMS.  Our big wind events have barometric center pressures below 975 as a storm moves east across the 130W and turns north along the coast, coming onshore around south of Vancouver Island.  Some of the current model projections indicate a center pressure of 975-977 as the Tue storm makes landfall anywhere from Astoria to southern Vancouver Island.  There are other projections that bring said storm onshore somewhere mid-to-north Vancouver Is., and with a higher center pressure, which would make wind a lower concern for OR / WA.

For now, we will issue a YELLOW ALERT for the possibility of strong WINDS Tuesday morning, Dec 27, esp for the OR & WA coasts, and inland west of the Cascades.  Gusts 45-60 mph in western valley locations are possible.  Coastal winds would be hurricane-strength, if the verifies. Saturated soils will contribute to potential tree fall, as well as falling limbs weakened by the current ice storm.  We’ll update this on Monday Dec 26.

After Tuesday’s heavy rain & wind issues, the next storm could arrive by Friday Dec 30.  This one will be very WET, as well.  A big New Year’s Day storm is tracking south to CA on the latest model runs. 

Patrons that have brought their Mug to the counter here for several years know that often model projections swing back-n-forth, meaning that what was projected earlier oft ends up being the actual weather event at the present.  Such is the case with the outlook for the end of this week.   Snow, sleet, freezing rain is again likely on Thu & Fri Dec 22, 23.  Here ya go —

The modified Arctic Front has arrived across the far NW WA / BC area (temperature in Bellingham this morning dropped to 16, with snow yesterday and last night across much of the Puget Sound.  The White is back.  Patrons in NW WA can expect additional snow over the next couple of days (inches!), as a Low moves onshore to the south.  It will remain cold.  

For Patrons in OR, the front has been delayed (a common aspect of these patterns) until early this week.  By Wednesday, eastern basins in OR, as well as valley temps will be quite cold (negative F in eastern WA, close to that for the usual cold locations in OR).  As such, the east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will ROAR - as strong as 80-100 mph at Crown Point - Thu through Fri Dec 22,23.  The cold air settles in on Wed.  Dry & cold for western OR.  The ‘depth’ of Arctic Air east of the Cascades should be enough to push subfreezing temps across the Willamette Valley / north OR coast by Thu the 22nd.  

This forecast, if verified, is the Back to the Future one, as earlier expectations called for a very MESSY WINTER EVENT to end this week, right at the time so many folks are traveling for the holiday weekend.  Why?  With the cold air settling in at the surface, west of the Cascades, any moisture riding up over that cold air will set off frozen precip issues.  The forecast for Thu into Fri is complicated, so please heed Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings that are likely to be posted soon.

We will forecast the possibility for all three forms of frozen precipitation - snow, sleet, freezing rain - depending on your location as a warm front moves onshore by sometime Thu.  The farther south one is in the PNW, the less likely to have any or all three types of frozen precip (unless in the mountains).  Therefore, for:

1. Eugene area north to Albany, the surface air flow could turn from the south early enough to usher in rain, or light freezing rain first, then all rain.  Depending on how cold it gets, rain/snow mix is an outside chance, but models push a ‘finger of warm’ air into the mid-level atmosphere, which melts snow flakes and causes freezing rain, if surface temps are below 33.  You know the drill.  Plan on freezing rain Thu night.
2. Areas north of Salem, the chance two of the three, or at least freezing rain, from the event coming is more likely.  Gorge winds could keep SNOW as the type of frozen precip arriving first, before progressing to sleet or freezing rain, THEN rain if the moisture source continues.  The quicker the front approaches, the less issue with snow.  East Portland into the Gorge will be quite wintery.  Travel after dark on Thu and into Fri will be dangerous.
3. SW WA up into the southern Puget Sound region, it will be possible to get all three forms of frozen water before any rain.  Right now, it may remain at or below freezing as the storm passes.  In other words, it may not rain until Sat.  Travel will be impacted.
4. Seattle north to BC,  Patrons could experience another significant shot of snow before sleet and then freezing rain on top of those layers of frozen water.  Travel will be dangerous; expect delays in air travel.

Christmas Eve / Day.  The winter event should be over (except for east of the Cascades & the mountains).  RAIN will rapidly move in on Saturday for everyone.  RAIN will be in play on Christmas Day, as well.  Forget the dry holiday we expected a week ago.  It will be quite WET.  But wait, there’s more.

Week after Christmas heading into the New Year is modeled to bring on another high wx impact event.  HEAVY RAINFALL.  Models for the past week have been charting a series of WET Pacific storms moving onshore right after another through the entire week.  The ‘jet stream’ by Wed Dec 28 will be extremely strong and aimed right at western OR.  Multiple inches of rain are possible for BC, western WA, western OR and northern CA as the last days of 2022 click by.  

Let’s get through the Christmas period first, then we’ll deal with the water issues.  Just be ready if you live in flood prone locations as a big slam-bam goodbye twenty-twenty-two looks probable.  Yikes.

As Elvis once sang, “I’m all shook up!”, so too are those of us trying to formulate weather reports out of the ever-changing computer model outputs.  Let’s try again, shall we?

The position of the anticipated modified-Arctic air mass is being adjusted by the models; meaning, we are less likely to have a huge winter event over the next week.  Still, there will be some surface snow & the potential for sleet and/or freezing rain in places.  As alluded to, the key is the ‘depth’ and position of the Arctic air as it moves south into the US.  The first round is following projections closely, so expect precipitation to fall as snow down to the surface, and esp 500-1,000 ft starting in far NW WA overnight tomorrow, Saturday; light snow is possible (1/2" - 1.5”) around Bellingham north; same for many locations in the Puget Sound by mid-day Sunday.  How far south the snow threat goes will depend on the movement of the cold front.  We do not have super-cold air east of the Cascades, and thus a cold outflow to the west will be minimal in the first round.  The moisture may not extend as far south as Salem.

On Monday, modified-Arctic air will continue to seep into eastern basins; wind will be strong out of the Fraser Gap - and a weaker wind in the Columbia Gorge - adding to the cold air pooling west side in WA; to a lesser extent in NW OR.  Another Low will track south along the BC coast before moving onshore in north Vancouver Island.  This is much farther north that we expected in earlier reports; which equates to rain at the surface because of southerly breezes, although snow is possible over NW WA as the moisture begins to arrive.  For most of western WA and nearly all of OR can expect plain rain.  The Gorge could have frozen precip issues early on.

The coldest pool of that 2nd shot Arctic air will track east of the Rockies, missing the PNW, which is why the next PNW system on Thu & Fri will be RAIN and not the heavy snow and icy conditions we were concerned about a few days ago.  The forecast is “all shook up”, indeed.  Anyway, best news is that holiday travel should proceed under normal PNW conditions, easing frustrations during an already hectic week.  

Christmas Weekend:  another favorable ’turn’ in the forecast — it now looks dry, with a bit of a chilly NE wind.  Ho Ho Ho.

Post Christmas - well, if we are to believe the current chart pattern, warmer temps, VERY WET weather following Christmas on into the next holiday.  Moderate-to-heavy rain is possible, with cooler temsp and lots of mountain snow for skiers probable by week’s end.  It should be rather blustery, as well.

Bottom line: we may have missed a major winter mess during a critical travel period.  Keep alert, as all of this is variable.