A Dry Thanksgiving?

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday November 18
Long-range outlook is trending away from a wet Thanksgiving.  Interesting.  Go ahead.  Refill that Mug and return here for what could happen.
The current dry, chilly pattern around the PNW will continue through most of this weekend (some locations are teasing a record number of consecutive days with no rainfall for the month of November).  A very dominant High pressure ridge, centered over the Continental Divide, has resulted in powerful east winds out of the Columbia Gorge and helped to block Pacific storms from entering the region.  That is charting to weaken on Sunday.  Therefore, for Patrons on Vancouver Island and in NW WA, a weak system could bring cloudiness & with showers late Sunday. 
Thanksgiving week is now trending mostly dry!  A weak system is likely to bring a gentle rain for western WA & NW OR overnight Monday into Tue.  After that, we may end up with DRY weather on through Thanksgiving Day, with the east wind in the Columbia River Gorge & down the Cascade passes returning (not as strong as current event); the wind will help mitigate morning fog in valley areas.  Black Friday is now looking rain-free.  
STEADY precipitation should be back for multiple days starting Saturday night of the holiday weekend.  A weak system will bring on a few showers Fri night, with a short break during daylight hours on Saturday.  By Saturday night the 26th, rain will return.  Sunday will be wet all day, with heavy rain charting for Mon & Tue.  
Models are quite variable for the last day of November (Wed) and early December.  Some solutions present very wet for all the region; others hold the rain over NW WA, missing much of OR.  Either way, the first weekend of December is trending dry.  We will mention that cumulative precipitation amounts may be quite substantial in the Nov 27 through Dec 1 period, esp for western WA & southern BC.  Be prepared for localized flooding.
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