Monday October 18
Our package of “classic fall storms” - which we have been discussing since Oct 4 - is about to be delivered. Finally. The delayed arrival of the storms mirrors packages arriving at the door later than first expect. Mug up, Patron, as regional wx could turn very interesting.
Basis & Background: a long-awaited large, cold pool of air over the Gulf of Alaska is about to be ‘deployed' by Nature. Subsequently, the contrast of cold/warm, combined with a very strong ‘jet stream’ overhead, will set up the potential for waves of Low pressure centers to deepen rapidly as they approach the PNW. Historically, when deep Lows cross the meridian 130W line of longitude - just west of our coastline - WIND STORMS can be an issue. There is an outside chance that such may be the case in the Oct 21-30 period. The area of concern will be between northern CA and Vancouver Island / SW BC. Model solutions vary considerably regarding just how close these Lows will approach the coast, and if they do cross the 130W line, where would their centers make landfall, if at all. Some may spin north into Haidi Gwaii of BC, or track directly into NW WA, OR or even northern CA. More than one storm will have this potential. In the past, there can be 2 or 3 such systems in series, with one of them making a major impact somewhere in the PNW. Again, this is background and conjecture based on what model solutions are now presenting as POSSIBLE.
The week ahead: expect a front to arrive overnight Tue, with rain & breezy conditions from northern CA to BC. Rather windy in far northern CA & Brookings. This will be followed by the remnant of Typhoon Namtheun - with a very deep Low center of pressure (956-964 mb ??) on Thu. Don’t be alarmed. Models track the center OFFSHORE towards Haidi Gwaii, so WINDS will be powerful over portions of Vancouver Is, missing the lower PNW areas. BC Patrons be ready! Coastal areas will be windy. We will get RAIN, but not strong winds, if the system tracks as expected. Friday brings on another much weaker system into northern CA, southern OR; damp up & down OR & WA.
The Oct 23,24 weekend: a strong system (977-986 mb?) is likely to develop in the manner discussed in background above, with a path towards southern OR or northern CA overnight Sat. California Patrons should be prepared from the Bay area north for strong winds, just in case. The rest of us will get some rain/showers. IF the weekend storm tracks farther north, well, stay tuned - this would impact OR the most.
Monday night / Tue, Oct 25,26: The storm in this period has the potential to be serious if it tracks far enough south over Vancouver Is. Low pressure in the 970s possible. We must watch this development. Heavy rain & windy, either way Mon night through Tue.
The Big One??? Thu, Fri Oct 28,29: Another powerful storm is charting - this one may be the most impactful of the series, if is crosses the 130W and makes landfall over central Vancouver Is. Some solutions drop the center pressure below 966 mb! We do not expect this outlier level to be met, but the trend is for the pre-Halloween storm to be POWERFUL. WIND & heavy rain across the entire PNW and northern CA, followed by lowering snow levels, with possible snow in the coast range later on Fri (yeah, OR too).
FROST Halloween morning is possible, should the sky clear in your location. Dry pattern for a few days, before cool rains return by mid-week, early November.
Bottom Line: these storms are not promised to be major wind events, but each has the potential. Very windy & WET, yes. That said, historically, the attributes of the atmosphere discussed in the 2nd paragraph above are what need to be ‘in play’ for our region to get major wind events. After Wed, all will be. Hence, the concern is warranted. Power issues are probable during any one of the storms noted above, let alone to potential for 2 or 3 back-to-back. PLEASE BE PREPARED, just in case.
—> We will post Special Statements should conditions verify going forward.
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