Split and Fizzle

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday October 15
Ah, so we have your attention with the tag line today — good. Mug time.
Split pattern, in a manner of speaking, for today and Sat, with the rain/showers trailing over western WA, roughly north of Chehalis.  Oregon and the eastern zones will be dry and mild today & Sat.  By late Saturday evening, the stretched-out front offshore will slowly move over OR and northern CA.  Expect Sunday to be on the damp side for OR, WA and BC.  Not much of that moisture is likely to reach the eastern basins.  
Monday will turn out mostly dry, as will Tue.  Models vary a bit on the timing & strength of the next system due in sometime overnight Tue or early Wed.  This disturbance may end up being a dud, as the front may simply stretch out and thus weaken so much that only clouds result inland.  We’ll see.  
Now the fizzle. The development of a broad low pressure trough over the Gulf of Alaska has been shifting later & later the past week or so.  We still see an extended, stormy pattern eventually making its way into the PNW, but WHEN? 2023?  Seriously, right now, models have fizzled it almost completely away next week, keeping everything basically offshore and moving south over the Pacific, before edging slowly towards the PNW for plenty of wind & rain.  Dare we try a forecast again?  Sure, easy with a good Mug full - -
Here goes: after the weak system the middle of next week, expect the weather across the PNW to turn mild & pleasant for fall.  Fog may be in play in the usual places early each day from Thu into the weekend of Oct 23,24.  A ‘break away’ Low may spin showers into southern OR (possible thunderstorms, too) late Fri into Sat Oct 22,23. Then, Sunday night the 24th, the first storm gets close enough to bring on some rain & brisk winds later Mon into Tue, Oct 25,26.  We should also mention, there are solutions that hold off all this action until even later, keeping that weekend mild & dry before the heavy rains & wind arrive the week of Oct 25-29.  Confused yet?  
We provided a ‘heads-up’ about the opportunity to witness an Aurora Borealis from right here in the PNW last Monday night, Oct 11.  Well, here are 3 stunning views of the ’Northern Lights’ from around the PNW.  All images used with permission from the photographers: Randy Small (Lynden), Don Feltham (Puget Sound, Edmonds), Clifford Paguio (Crown Point Vista House). Thank you, gentlemen!
Randy Small Lynden Photo
Don Feltham Photo
Clifford Paguio Photo
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