Disappointment

 

An emotion word for a wx forecast?  Well, sip on for the explanation.

 

The long-lasting chilly, damp weather this Spring was supposed to end soon.  That was the encouraging aspect of our last forecast here on May 2.  Disappointment is the feeling that follows the failure of expectations or hopes to manifest — that is the feeling this update conjures in your host.  The extended dry spell has been brushed off the weather charts for now.  The ag industry in particular will continue to struggle with completing the required tasks this Spring.  In many areas of the PNW, April 2022 was the coolest and wettest on record; May is starting out in a similar vein.  Drat.  Now the update.

 

A cold weekend in store, with a wet system arriving today, the 6th (windy, esp in OR).  Afternoon sun breaks will spur on thunderstorms around the entire region, with the highest chance today and again on Mother’s Day.  Cold air aloft, high-angle sun (when it peeks through) and plenty of atmospheric moisture all combine for generating intense afternoon showers / thunderstorms.  In fact, Sunday (Mother’s Day) could be the one of the coldest on record, if model solutions verify.  Oh my. 

 

Given the cold air in place later Sunday into Tue, FROST is possible, esp if the sky clears in your location, either side of the Cascades.  It should be mostly dry Mon & Tue, with the next wet system likely to arrive sometime on Wed May 11th.  That disturbance could be delayed until after dark on Wed.  We’ll see.  Models have differed on the solution for Friday the 13th and that weekend - some suggest a dry pattern will set up for several days (as we discussed in our last report); others bring back a wet system on the 13th, with showers continuing at least through Sat May 14.  That is the trend.

 

What we had originally expected for the week of May 16-20 as seasonal, dry and warm is now trending back to a wet, chilly period.  If this verifies, there will be negative impact of regional agriculture.  Disappointment all around.