Long Range Change

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday June 3
A soaker weekend is on the way.  At least growers had a few days to work the land ahead of time.  Refill your Mug. 
Rain will be the news this weekend, as will potentially strong thunderstorms over portions of western Oregon.  Yes, it will be breezy, but not as much as last weekend.  Details: a Low is moving towards the OR coast, but this time, the models turn its track north rather than across OR.  Result will be plenty of rain and not as strong a wind field as the previous wind event.  Precipitation amounts should range from 3/4" to 3” depending on elevation.  On Sunday, Patrons across OR should be prepared for THUNDERSTORMS - which could develop into strong, dangerous cells.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service alerts.
Next week will be drier & warm again.  The exception could be the far NW corner of WA / Vancouver Island, as a system may dump more rain Thu night into Fri.  We’ll review this in our next report.  The weekend of Jun 12,13 is trending on the seasonal dry side, with limited showers, primarily east side.   
As the middle of June arrives, we are noting a big change in the upper-air and large-scale surface pattern.  For the past couple of months, a broad Low pressure trough has lingered over the Gulf of Alaska, coupled with a strong ‘jet stream’.  The resulting damp, cool weather dominated April & May.  While a bit early to confirm, the long-range model solutions hint of a broad Pacific High over the Gulf of Alaska - a pattern which sets up dry, mild summer weather for the PNW.  This doesn’t mean no precip, but it does signal a change back to normal PNW weather, as compared to the past 2 months.  Also, we are continuing to be under the influence of a cool La Niña pattern (see image below), so any onshore flow of air will help keep the lid on serious heat-ups.  If High pressure builds from the desert SW or California, then a heat wave will be more likely.  Keep that Mug handy.
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