One Storm

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday November 17
We are quickly approaching the time of year when weather can mess up a lot of holiday plans & travel.  While perfection is never claimed about our work here, know we do focus closely on what weather issues may have impact on your life & property.  Keep that Mug handy this holiday season.  Let’s peek ahead again - - - -
Overall, the pattern remains a dry one for the balance of November.  However, we do have one rather intense STORM that has popped onto the charts since our last report.  Storms with potential impact typical develop along the boundary of warm & cold air masses - which is what the models project for tomorrow into Sunday.  Our tranquil wx will rapidly change later tomorrow, Saturday Nov 18.  It will be a quick hit storm.
A strong storm (relative to the past few weeks) will move into the PNW tomorrow afternoon, with RAIN early, turning to showers on Sunday.  COLD air will rapidly move in behind the front Saturday night, so ANYONE traveling over the Cascades must be prepared for WINTER STORM conditions.  6-12 inches of snow from pass level and higher; WINDS that will blow snow around limiting vision for night travel.  For valley locations, expect up to an inch of rain from this system and WIND GUSTS - over western OR - that could top 40 mph overnight.  Expect to hear rain on the roof and a howling wind in the night.  Clearing later Sunday, with cooler temperatures arriving.  NOTE: the bulk of the rain and wind gusts will be over Oregon; western WA will be damp, yes, but not quite as stormy.  WA Cascade passes will get snow, so be prepared. 
Thanksgiving week:  yes, it does looks dry all week, other than a short-shot of moisture overnight Tue into early Wed.  This is modeled to be a very weak front, so rain may not even make it farther south than Salem, if that.  An east-to-northeast wind may arrive, holding off the pesky morning fog in places, but also allowing for colder evenings - 30s possible.  Thanksgiving Day is trending DRY and fairly mild for late November.  While some model solutions have brought down colder air from the north a few days after Thanksgiving, most solutions of late are indicating dry, mild conditions through the balance of November.  California will get periodic rain / showers.
🚗 ✈️ National travel will be one of the best holiday periods for a lack of major weather issues.  Models indicate a bit of snow across the heartland, rain in the SE and NE corners, but overall, a decent travel & family time for just about everywhere in America.  Other than strong winds and some rain in the panhandle, Alaska should be good for travel, too.
December 2023:  early look at the final month of the year suggests the month will start out with cold RAINS and mountain snowfall.  Of course, model scenarios do not always take into account the strong El Niño pattern, so we’ll monitor closely.  December storms could target CA more than the PNW, should El Niño play the classic spoiler roll.  Our Mugs will be ready.
“He who has no clouds sees no rainbows."
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