Pondering Big Wind

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday October 1
New month.  New forecast.  Fresh Mug full.  
Interesting fall wx continues to present on the charts for later this month.  One key aspect will be the potential for powerful WIND events.  We mentioned this last time; now, other PNW wx geeks are taking note.  Before pondering all that, let’s forecast the between now and then.  
This weekend should be cool-to-pleasant across the region, although clouds and some showers may hide the sun, at times, the farther north one goes into WA / BC, as a weak front will drape across NW WA / Vancouver Is. later Saturday.  Oregon temps are likely to pop into the lower 70s on Sunday.  
Monday looks dry and mild for the entire PNW.  Tue should be a turning point day, as an approaching front - a damp one, if models are correct - rapidly moves onshore over northern Vancouver Is.  Rather breezy over the Puget Sound.  The front will cover western OR by Wed, so expect some precip & much colder temps in the Cascades.  Cooler on Thu before another, stronger system roles into the scene for a wet Fri Oct 8.  This storm may shift into northern CA, NV next weekend.
Speaking of the Oct 9,10 weekend - Sat may be a mostly dry day, with fog in the morning, before more CHILLY wet wx arrives on Sunday.  Showers will linger, as will the put-on-a-coat temperatures to get the next week, Oct 11-15 started.  Models have varied, as you would expect, on the actual timing of wet cold fronts moving onshore during that next week on into the weekend of Oct 16-17, but solutions indicating one or two potentially STRONG wind events continue to tease out.  It could remain damp that week, with a strong WIND storm on Wed the 13, as a deep Low develops Tue Oct 12th, followed by another WIND PRODUCER on Saturday the 16th.  Other solutions keep the whole week very WET, with lots of high Cascade snow, with no major wind event(s).  
Long-time Patrons understand the importance of being prepared, just in case.  Models are not always ‘wrong’, they often vary on timing for key events.  We will keep close watch on these potential wind events, and post updates, as warranted, should this pattern begin to verify.
Bottom line: we are shifting out of the drought pattern that has gripped the PNW since early last Spring, and into a classic, storm-filled Fall pattern - all part of what is now recognized as a “La Niña” influenced cycle of weather.  Will ‘big wind’ play a role?  Keep your Mug handy.
“We’re moving forward at twice the speed of sound and half the speed of common sense."
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