Update Wed Jan 3

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

🔹No wind event this Fri, Jan 5.  
🔹It will turn colder over the weekend, with the possibility for snow event hitting the entire PNW by the 12th, or sooner.  Could be a modified Arctic Outbreak in the works.
📍Details in The Weather Café ®️ discussion on Friday the 5th.  
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New Year’s Day 2024
Holiday 🎉 Update.  
Splash of rain returns tomorrow, as a “duel low” system stretches out along the west coast; showers lingering on Wed Jan 3.  Temps will be cool.  Thursday should be dry with areas of fog in the usual locations.  Friday, well, read on —
We have had trouble ’trusting’ the accuracy of wx models this season.  One key cause of model variance may the influence of the current strong El Niño essentially warping model calculus.  Anyway, for a few days now, models have charted a Low pressure system developing rapidly to the west of southern OR, moving “inside” the 130 line and tracking a path for landfall over the NW corner of WA or southern Vancouver Island.  With a barometric center of 981 mb, this system could generate a considerable WIND FIELD across western OR and / or WA.  The storm could deepen even more than model projections, or be a none event.  For now — we’ll forecast the potential for a WINDY Friday morning, with an added chance for strong wind gusts over 40 mph mid-day inland from the coast.  A special statement will be issued on Wed, if warranted.  It will be a wet system, as well, with plenty of surface rain and lots of SNOW in the mountains, as the back-side of the system will fill with colder air aloft.
The coming weekend looks COLD, with snow levels quite possibly down to the foothills, coast range, etc.  Rain / Snow mixed at the surface should not be ruled out Saturday night.  The cold front will also drape down across ALL of California and south into Baja, with the chance for frost, if the sky clears (including the PNW).
The next notable system is charting to arrive Tue Jan 9, moving in from farther north over the Pacific - and be colder! The storm is not indicated to have a deeper center pressure (this one around 988 mb), but it is charting to make landfall farther south, over Astoria.  AND, it will have colder air ’support’ - meaning snow levels may drop lower than that we experience this weekend.  Interesting.  It will be possible to see quite a bit of rain/snow mix at the surface, and snow above 500 ft.  Will it be all snow at the surface overnight Tue and into Wed Jan 10?  Again, interesting.  
That second cold front will also track south over CA, for another wintery mix for the Golden State.  Should current projections verify, the Low will strengthen after moving south of the Bay area, setting up quite a winter storm for southern CA.  News maker, if this happens.  
The PNW will turn drier, with morning frost if the sky clears, late Thu and Fri.  A Yukon Dome of 1042 mb will develop and may shift south to set up a short-shot of cold air out of the Fraser Gap, and to a lesser extent, the Columbia Gorge for the weekend of Jan 13,14.  
A few degrees warmer by Monday the 15th, with rain likely late day.  That said, a Low moving down the coast of BC may draw cold air down the Fraser Gap and set up a wintery mix for NW WA on the 15th.  WAY to early on this, but a ponder point for wx geeks.   We will continue to monitor the Yukon area for developing High pressure Domes.  Almost always the precursor to snow around these here parts.
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