Variability

 

A few adjustments, as expected, are indicated in the long-range wx outlook.  Is your morn’n beverage ready?

 

Relatively mild temps today & tomorrow the 23rd.  A Heat-up is “on” for Wed and Thu, with the later being the hottest of the week.  Both afternoons in the 90s for western OR; slightly cooler for NW WA.  The final weekend of August 2022 is trending cooler, as the onshore flow picks up again on Fri Aug 26th.  A weak surface Low is charting to sag across SW WA Fri night/Sat morning, ushering in some of the cooler temps of the month, and drizzle along the coast.   Breezy east side, esp SE OR.  A tad warmer on Sunday.

 

The final days of August are charting as HOT, with temps threatening to top triple-digits in a few western OR locations.  The heat cranks up on Tue Aug 30 and may last through the balance of the week.  It will warm considerably across the northern tier of the PNW, as well.

 

Labor Day Weekend: Here’s where model runs vary considerably.  Some solutions bring another Low pressure trough directly over the PNW beginning Fri Sep 2, for showers and breezy, cool holiday temperatures; other solutions extend the heat-up through Sat of the holiday weekend by keeping that Low offshore, tracking to the south, then turning onshore sometime late Sat night, for a mild Sunday & warmer Monday Sep 5.   We’ll peek at this again later this week.

 

The week after Labor Day is trending warm-to-hot, so don’t put the watering cans away just yet.

 

Topical Tropical:  the current quiet period the 2022 hurricane season may be coming to an end.  Atmospheric conditions west of Africa are becoming favorable for major development of the Lows moving off the continent.  It’s possible for a named storm (DANIELLE or EARL) to threaten the eastern seaboard of the USA right after the Labor Day holiday.  Stay tuned, esp if you are traveling to the east coast.

 

Third Cup ☕️☕️☕️ — We likely heading into the 3rd consecutive fall/winter season of a La Niña pattern.  The last time this has happened was 1950.  The May and June 2022 readings were some of the lowest temperature variances on record (going back to 1850).  Water management agencies across the desert SW & CA are concerned that this could portend a continuance of regional droughts.  We’ll present an informal review of this later in September.