The WxCafe™

Swinging

Posted by Rufus La Lone on May 02, 2025

Friday May 2

Overall pattern looks to swing back & forth between sunny/warm & cloudy/damp. Details ahead, with your morn’n brew.

Pleasant Friday, with temps mild in the 70s most places; tad cooler around NW WA & BC. That said, the wx will swing over to cloudy & damp late evening into early Saturday. Not much precip, but enough to dampen roads and knockdown dust. Dry patten returns by Sunday, with pleasant temps heading into the new week.

As stated, next week is trending mostly dry, esp early on, with warm temperatures by Tue — upper 70s to low 80s probable, region-wide. Models do hint at a swing back to increasing clouds & a slight chance for light showers over the far NW corner of WA & Vancouver Is. This is charting as a weak system, only clipping the NW corner of WA & southern BC; therefore, let’s go with this being a cloud event, rather than rain/showers. Sip. For the rest of the PNW (and everywhere else after Tue), expect next week to be mostly sunny and mild; temps in the 70s.

There is a southerly flow component on the charts for overnight Fri May 9, which would suggest elevated humidity in general, chance for east side & Cascade showers/thunderstorm specifically, throughout the weekend of May 10,11. Gone is the strong wind issue for the eastern basins. For the weekend of May 10,11 we expect mostly dry, with some showers/thunderstorms east of the Cascades, with increasing chance for rain/showers/thunderstorm across the entire PNW as the week of May 12 gets underway. This damp, but mild, pattern could last through the entire week, May 12-16. Soils will likely become too wet to work, and plant disease pressure is likely to elevate, so plan accordingly should that pattern verify. We’ll know more a week from now.

Reason for the above outlook: a large Low pressure trough offshore - that was modeled to move onshore over southern OR during that weekend - is now charting to remain offshore as it moves farther south, before essentially ‘parking’ just off the northern CA coast for a couple of days. The implications of this change is for region-wide muggy temps, spotty thunderstorm activity (both sides of the Cascades) and multiple days of measurable precipitation. That’s the set-up right now.

We do see a dry weekend for May 17,18. Warmer.

“It doesn’t do any good the sit up and take notice if you keep on sitting."

-Rufus

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A Couple Days

Posted by Rufus La Lone on April 28, 2025

Monday April 28

Looks like only two ’summer-like’ days are on the charts out of the next seven. Do they fall on a weekend? ☕️ Mug up for the answer.

Onshore flow has helped keep a pesky marine cloud deck around, holding down temps this past weekend, and today. Not bad, just typical PNW April weather. We have a weak front that will quickly pass over tonight into early Tue, so areas roughly north of Portland can expect a bit of moisture. Not much, but enough to dampen the ground. THEN, Wednesday & Thursday this week will be the 2 ’summer-like’ days out of the next several. Sunshine & warmth, esp over western OR, which could top 80 inland on Thu; upper 70s possible around the Puget Sound, esp the southern portion. Friday does NOT look too bad, as the next chilly, damp system may hold off arrival until overnight Fri into Sat morning. Temps on Fri will be down a bit from Thu, but pleasant & a tad muggy, ahead of the cold front.

The first weekend of May looks on the chilly side, with periodic showers broadly spread around the entire PNW; clearing some on Sunday May 4. WINDS will pick-up significantly over the eastern basins of the PNW this weekend, with the strongest located over SE OR & potentially Spokane. Blowing dust could an issue. California - generally north of Pt Conception - will turn chilly with some rain/showers & possible thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada range.

By the time next Mon, May 5 arrives, we should be out of the broad precipitation mode and slowly warming back up into the upper 60s or so in Oregon; however, an onshore flow is likely to bring a return to the pesky marine cloud deck inland, west of the Cascades. We do see a weak trough clipping Puget Sound area late Tue through Thu, so mostly cloudy with a chance showers is our ‘call’ for now. That same trough may hold together enough to bring on clouds and a widely scattered showers over western OR on Thu May 8, as well. Friday May 9 is trending warmer, with plenty of sunshine in the afternoon.

The weekend of May 10,11 is looking dry, with partly cloudy conditions under an onshore flow. Sounds familiar, right?

NOTE: we do see a possible shift of the Pacific High farther to the NW by May 14 or 15, which, if verified, would usher in warm weather for the second half of May — mid-80s to lower 90s in western OR; warm over the Sound, too. We’ll see.

“America needs more free speech that is worth listening to."

-Rufus

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Seasonal

Posted by Rufus La Lone on April 25, 2025

Friday April 25

Quite seasonal pattern ahead through the first half May 2025, with lots of dry, sunny days, a few wet ones, and mild temperatures. Let’s call out the damp periods, and their location. Mug time.

A band of showers/thunderstorms possible along the southern portion of OR, both sides of the Cascades, through Saturday evening. Note that a shower or two could roam north as far as Eugene/Albany area. For the rest of us, expect onshore breezes to pick-up late weekend and for the start of next week.

Monday Apr 28 presents as dry, but quite breezy (from the west) in the Columbia Gorge. Late Mon into very early Tue a weak front may cross overhead, with an outside chance for very light precip. Clearing by early Tue, opening the door for warmer temps on through the balance of next week. Temps in the 70s across the region. Thursday May 1 will likely be the warmest day of the week. An onshore flow will become predominant by late Friday, starting in the Puget Sound first, then spreading south across western OR as Friday May 2 unfolds.

The weekend of May 3,4 looks breezy, esp Saturday, although dry. Temps will be a bit cooler than the previous week.

Turning a bit muggy to start the first full week of May, as a trough of moisture rolls into SE OR; temps should run a tad warmer than the previous weekend. Generally dry, except for portions east of the OR Cascades, until late Thu evening. Onshore flow will increase again on Fri, with a rain band bringing the first widely spread measure of precip westside both in OR & WA late Fri night on through Saturday night. Current charts suggest STRONG WINDS across the eastern regions of OR & WA, along with western ID. Travelers be aware. We’ll monitor this potential adverse wx to see if model’s verify.

Bottom line: for the west side, there’s no widespread rain threat between now and Thu or Fri, May 8,9. Again, favorable farming wx.

From the ’Net: “With the rise of self driving vehicles, it’s only a matter of time until there’s a country song where the guy’s truck leaves him."

-Rufus

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Mix of Chilly & Mild

Posted by Rufus La Lone on April 21, 2025

Monday April 21

Good morn’n, Patron. We’ll get this weather week started. Ready?

Dry this week until overnight Fri, with temps warming into the 70s mid-to-late week. Per normal, the Puget Sound region may run a few degrees cooler than SW WA and OR. Possible for temps to top 80 in southern OR on Thu. Outdoor delight.

A cooler, wet pattern is on the charts to arrive overnight Thu into Fri, with some steady rain and/or lots of showers through late Saturday; Sunday should turn mostly dry, with a few clouds, depending on how rapidly the Low shifts to our east. Friday’s cold front will bring moisture to the eastern basins and ID, possibly with some snow in the higher terrain.

The last few days of April do look DRY, except for a quick shot of rain/showers over the Vancouver Island and northern Puget Sound area next Monday afternoon Apr 28 and early Tue the 29th. SW WA and OR will be dry all that week until Fri May 2. Temps in the 60s & 70s.

The first weekend of May 2025 looks to follow the pattern of the coming weekend, with damp wx starting Fri and holding through Saturday, as another cold air mass (for May) drops in for a visit. NOTE: Sunday May 4 may present FROST in the morning, if the sky clears in your location.

We see the potential for a chilly week Sunday through Sunday, May 4-11, with temps running below normal and risk for frost, should the sky clear. This pattern will depend on the upper-level air flow, which is trending from the NW with cold air support. Just a ponder point for now, so don’t spill your Mug if it doesn’t happen.

A quip from 2006: “Science has not yet discovered how the birds know exactly when we've washed our car."

-Rufus

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Wrapping Up April

Posted by Rufus La Lone on April 18, 2025

Good Friday 2025

Fair weather continues, with a few short-term downturns, during the second half of April. Refill and read on.

The weekend will trend cooler because of a trough of colder air moves south along the BC coast, arriving on Easter Sunday. Showers can be expected as early as tomorrow, although just dust-buster amounts of precip. There’s a greater chance for widely scattered showers on Easter Day, with cool temps, as stated.

Next week looks fairly cool early on, with some periodic cloudiness, but it should warm up several degrees by late week. One of the ’new’ twists on the charts is for moisture to arrive from the SW on Fri Apr 25 - this type of pattern MAY set up a chance for thunderstorms, esp along the western slopes of the OR Cascades. Whether or not there will be boomers, it looks like measurable precip is possible on Fri & Sat, Apr 25th & 26th. Sunday the 27th should be dry and mild.

The final days of April 2025 look dry & mild for OR and most of WA, although a system may clip the coast of BC & northern Puget Sound region Tue night through Fri May 2.

The first weekend of May is trending damp, esp on Sunday the 4th. Temperatures are likely to cool down several degrees for a couple of days to get the week of May 5-9 underway. Early yet, but we could return to a run of 70+ temps & sunshine by May 8.

"Tourists visit Washington DC as if it were a zoo - that’s where they shoot the bull, the buck is passed, and you get a bum steer."

Timely historical fact: Rufus was one of the sons of the man, compelled by the Romans, to help carry the cross for Jesus (Mark 15:21).

-Rufus

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