A change in the overall wx pattern is on the way.  A second ☕️, too.

A decent fall storm will begin to move into the PNW, from the NW, later this evening - over Vancouver Is first, then expanding southward into OR by Saturday morning.  The Saturday rain field will be from a warm front, so temps will pop up a bit before dropping on Sunday, as the subsequent cold front moves onshore (most of the precip will likely fall north of Portland into BC.  A good 1/2” or so of precip west side, both WA & OR can be expected.  Some precip will hit east side, well into ID.  Cascade snow, as well.  Drying late Sunday.

Chilly Mon morning to start the work week, maybe a light frost or fog in the usual locations.  The week of Dec 9-13 is charting as dry, chilly, with some fog, for the first 3 days, then increasing chance for rain (north-to-south) overnight Wed the 11th.  The bulk of the precip should fall north of Portland.  Thursday looks mostly dry post-frontal passage after sunrise.  Here’s where it starts to get interesting.  Sip.

Model runs have suggested the potential for a Low pressure system to move “inside the 130” (degrees of latitude, which, if the Low is deep enough, can generate powerful wind events).  For now, we are going say YELLOW ALERT for a wind event over western OR on Friday the 13th.  Rain will increase - from the south before sunrise Fri as the Low pressure center crosses the 130W.  Should model solutions verify, expect southerly winds to increase Friday afternoon, as a possible 988 mb center moves onshore near Astoria.  The barometric pressure gradient could exceed 18-20 mb from the CA border to Astoria around 7pm Friday the 13th.  Note that this isn’t definite, but probable at this time.  Western OR Wind gusts could be the strongest of the year as said Low crosses the Columbia River near Longview around 10 pm.  We’ll leave this here for now; update on Monday. 

Following rain (and wind?) on the 13th, Saturday will be dry, as will early Sunday the 15th.  Another WET storm is charted for Sunday night into Monday, followed by showers Tue evening, moderate rain Wed night the 18th, and a super-wet system on Fri Dec 20.  

Bottom line: a consistently wet December pattern arrives after a 2-3 day dry start next week.  There will be breaks between storms, so flooding issues should not be of concern.  Wind, maybe.  Plenty of mountain snow for Patrons taking to the slopes over the Holidays.  Our annual 'White Watch’ for a possible snowy Christmas will get going next week. 

Monday December Two

Chilly morning, so refill that Mug with your fav hot beverage and check out the latest outlook.  

Dry chilly conditions should hold until later this week, then the first chance for some precip in Dec is possible, as well as a short-shot of warmer temperatures. Currently, looks like the Puget Sound region has a higher chance for showers Thu & Fri vs the rest of the PNW, but either way, the system will be blasé.  Again, best part will be warmer temps, given the southerly flow.

The coming weekend has trended damp overnight Fri into Sat, with cooler temps and drier air moving in on Sunday as a cold front drops to the SE..  Rather wet for our Vancouver Island Patrons, and those farther north along the BC coast.  Fairly standard early December weekend. 

Next week we see a return to cool, dry conditions Mon & most of Tue.  Overnight Tue & early Wed a weak system may provide some minimal precipitation; Idaho likely to get good dose of rain on Wed Dec 4.  Regionally, cooler temps will prevail Thu & Fri (the 13th) as the coldest air of the season settles east of the Cascades and over the Continental Divide.  (Not much pressure difference between east & west sides is charting on the models, so don’t expect an east wind event.)  However, the atmospheric adjustments for December 2024 may begin to set the stage for a COLD second half of Month Twelve.  Read on.

RAIN will return with a notable Pacific storm over the weekend of Dec 14,15.  VERY cold air mass will flow down over the Gulf of Alaska from the interior, setting up the classic cold vs warm air battle - which equates to moderate-to-heavy rain, along with plenty of snow in the mountains.  In fact, we see the potential for LOW elevation SNOW around the PNW late that weekend.  We’ll monitor this closely.  We also see potential for low elevation snow or rain/snow mixed on Mon Dec 16.  

The week of Dec 16-20 is trending VERY WET early in the week.  There have been some model solutions bringing our first Arctic Outbreak into the region that week, but for now, that has changed to the more normal heavy rain, plenty of mtn snow outlook.  

Again, the overall pattern may shift into a colder one for the second half of the month.  Will snow be in the works for Christmas?  Patience.

Black Friday 2024

Given the holiday, we’ll keep this short.  The PNW will be dominated.   Say what?  ☕️

Yep, dominated by High pressure.  A large, stable High pressure ridge will block all threats for precipitation around the entire PNW through roughly Sat night Dec 7.  After that, no more precip until Fri the 13th.  (Exception: the BC coast & Northern Vancouver Island will be quite wet!)  The moisture arriving late Pearl Harbor Day - Dec 7 - will be targeted mostly over the Puget Sound north. 

Generally DRY until the middle of December.  The change back to the normally cold, wet, snowy December weather will begin the weekend of Dec 14,15.  Until then, expect periods of fog & afternoon sunshine probable. 

Thanksgiving week already.  Let’s get right to the outlook.   ☕️Mug is full.

In comparison with many Thanksgiving weeks, this one will be generally pleasant and calm across the West.  Some wx issues face those traveling to the east, as the first, large-scale blast of cold Canadian air drops across much of the eastern half of the Nation.  The PNW will slowly dry-down early this week, then present a calm holiday weekend for all.  Fog possible in the usual locations.

Post-Thanksgiving week - December 2 through Fri the 6th - looks dry, except for the far NW corner of WA & Vancouver Island, southern BC, where it will turn quite WET.  Moderate-to-heavy rainfall is charting for coastal BC & the Alaskan Panhandle.  Windy, too.  For the rest of the PNW, we can expect some showers over the Puget Sound region; generally dry elsewhere.

The weekend of Dec 7,8 trends dry early Sat, turning damp overnight as a weak cold front zooms past the region.  Afterward, it could be dry again for another few days.  Models have toyed with a cold wx outbreak, but that seems to be an outlier solution that some are grabbing onto.  A Yukon Dome of 1040 mb does develop during the next couple of weeks, but drifts in the normal pattern over the lower 48, east of the Rockies.  We always monitor closely.  We will provide an update on Black Friday.

Around the PNW, lots of clean-up and power restoration in progress after the big storm this week.  What weather-card does the end of November hold?  Let’s take a look.

First of all, blustery & damp today, as the last in the current series of strong storms spins north a few hundreds miles offshore.  The atmosphere will ‘calm down’ throughout the weekend, with occasional showers and gradually cooling temperatures - a calming atmosphere, if you will, has we enter the first big holiday week of the season.  An east wind will blow down the Fraser Gap, but nothing of significance, other than a chill factor.

A stable, cool air mass will reside over the PNW next week.  Morning fog possible in the usual locations; frost probable, if the sky clears in your location, esp in the higher elevations & east of the Cascades.  Good news is that there is NO LONGER the chance for powerful east wind outflow from the Fraser Gap or Columbia Gorge during the holiday.  Models now keep the atmosphere rather tranquil for late November.  Most of the ‘winter wx’ will be in play across the plains and eastern half of the nation.  Generally DRY for the extended Thanksgiving holiday, excluding the last day.

The next chance for rain around the PNW is charting for Sunday, the 1st day of December.  Rain will advance north-to-south, covering nearly all of the PNW (including northern CA) by the afternoon.  Nothing heavy, no wind event - just a calm, cool rain.

Mon through Fri, Dec 2-6.  Rain will let up late Mon in most locations, before starting back up again on Tue.  A stronger system will dump lots of precipitation over Vancouver Island & the northern 2/3 of western WA Tue through Wed.  A couple inches possible, with most of OR only getting a small ‘clip’ of rain from that 2 day pattern.  Models continue heavy rainfall over northern Vancouver Island for the balance of the week, as the train of moisture lifts a bit farther north, compared to Mon/Tue.  Showers possible for the Puget Sound, but dry elsewhere around the region.

The weekend of Dec 7,8 is trending DRY & rather mild for early December.  

Upper-level pattern looks to have shifted away from any cold outbreaks in early December.  Let’s see if that holds.  Change is always expected.