Say what?  Well, it is a couple of weeks out, but long-range model runs are coming around to a major winter event in the PNW.  Ponder time now, planning time coming soon, should the model’s verify.  Let’s Mug-start the discussion now.

The incessant rainy period of late has ended.  Yes, we will get a shot or two of precipitation over the next several days, but durations will be limited.  That said, expect a quick-shot of showers overnight this Tue, only if you live NW WA / Vancouver area.  The next threat for rain will be more widespread and arrive overnight this Thu into early Fri Jan 9.  This system will be organized, presenting rain west side, freezing rain and snow east side; several inches of snow in the Cascades.  

Other than the shots of precip mentioned above, we are on track to remain DRY through roughly Thu night Jan 16th.  Overall temperatures will be fairly moderate until just before the Jan 16-17 storm arrives.  Then, LOOK OUT for SNOW!!  

⚠️ Seriously, model runs suggest that the cold front on Friday Jan 17 will usher in SNOW at the surface across the PNW.  

Much colder air is charting to infiltrate the region - via the typical Fraser & Columbia Gaps - during the weekend of Jan 18,19.  Concurrently, moisture will ride up from the south, setting up a notable SNOW EVENT late Sunday Jan 19 into early Inauguration Day, Mon Jan 20.  The heaviest snowfall is currently targeting western OR.  (We’ll deal with how much snow, should all of this continue to verify.)

Around Tue Jan 21, a VERY cold Arctic Blast is looking possible for the PNW — the coldest temps in quite some time.  We will need to monitor THIS possible outcome closely.  As of now, temps in the single digits are pegged for mid-week, Jan 22.  Furthermore, another push of moisture from the SW may arrive late week, Jan 22-23, for a real messy snow storm — putting more snow on top of what will already be ‘placed’.   Oh my.

Again, PONDER all of this mid-Jan winter stuff for now, but should we see continued verification of such a series of winter events, planning for travel, school closures, etc will be prudent.  Keep that Mug handy, Patron!

Well 2025, here we go - - - -  ☕️.   Lots of Patrons have been asking when will it stop raining?  An antsy, fidgety lot!  With Mug in hand, we have reported that an extended dry spell was charting for early January.  The good news is that the prognostication stands.  Patience!  Let’s take a look.

Rain on & off through the weekend, with showers and sun breaks possible both days.  Sunday continues to chart as the drier of the two days.  Another quick-shot of rain is likely overnight Sunday, mainly focused on southern OR.  Late Sunday night a brisk east wind will start gushing out of the Fraser & Columbia Gaps, as colder air mass settles into the eastern basins.  (Strong east wind through the Sierra Mtn passes in CA, as well.)  This will NOT be a direct Arctic Event, just the far westerly & “warmer" edge of the bitterly cold continental air mass descending across much of the lower 48, east of the Rockies.  Interestingly, the atmospheric ‘wave’ of Low pressure moving through the PNW today will ‘reform’ as it crosses the Rockies, setting off a major winter storm for the Midwest this weekend. 

Back to the PNW.  High pressure will drop east of the Cascades, as stated (yes, the ‘parent High’ was a Yukon Dome of >1040 mb), with chilly & breezy days west side; colder to the east.  Temps will be seasonal for January.  As the week of Jan 6 through 10 progresses, the Gap winds will weaken in the Fraser Gap and strengthen in the Columbia Gorge.  DRY all week, with limited fog issues because of the wind.  

Continued DRY during the weekend of Jan 11,12.  The Gap winds will stop as an onshore flow begins.  That pause will be brief before another High pressure dome drops southward out of the Canadian interior (NOT a ‘Yukon Dome' 1040 mb marker, though), ushering in a slightly colder air mass than the event this coming week.  Frosty mornings & cooler afternoon temps return west side for the Jan 13 through 17 week.

Bottom line:  The much anticipated DRY spell should last for 12 days.  Dare we believe?

The end is near.  What will the weather machine produce as 2025 gets started?  We’ll Mug up and make the attempt to foresee.  Ready?

Dry & chilly through the end of the year.  Rain will return before the clock strikes midnight on New Year’s Eve.  A chilly rain, with snow in the Cascades and even the potential for a bit of The White in the higher hills of the coast range.  Snowy east side and eastern end of the Columbia Gorge.  A second front will rapidly move onshore during the Rose Bowl game, impacting southern OR the most, with areas north of Vancouver WA not likely to get any precip.  Freezing rain possible in the Columbia Gorge early Thu morning, Jan 2, as a warm front moves northeast from southern OR.  That front will continue pushing moisture to the NE well into Fri Jan 3.  WIND will be strong from the east out of the Gaps, both Frazer & Columbia - not an Arctic cold blast, but notably windy.  The Arctic air will remain east of the Rockies.

For Fri, travel may be a mess for Patrons east of the Cascades with warmer air aloft dropping rain into subfreezing surface temps east side.  Some areas with SNOW, others with risk of freezing rain, including Bend/Redmond into John Day area.  Snow across eastern WA well into Sat Jan 4.  Overall, it will be wet west side and snowy east side throughout the first weekend of the New Year.  WINDY.  Sunday Jan 5 does present with less moisture, but not dry.  Patrons in ID, MT, WY will get a decent winter snow storm this coming weekend.  

As we have been noting for a few forecasts now, a DRY period should arrive during the week of Jan 6-10.  That said, one more wet front is charting for Mon Jan 6.  Rain & showers rapidly diminish late afternoon on Mon, then the longest stretch of DRY wx in quite some time will finally set up.  Expect morning fog, or frosty fog in colder locations, along with probable sunshine in the afternoons from Tue Jan 7 through Thu Jan 16.  Exception — Patrons in NW WA, Puget Sound, Vancouver BC region will get a quite shot of rain overnight Jan 9, then back to dry, like the rest of us.

Around the PNW, the air mass will cool a bit more by the weekend of Jan 11,12.  Again, Arctic air will remain east of the Rockies, but a small ’spill over to the west’ will chill down the eastern basins and kick-off an east wind from the Gaps.

Regionally, it will be good to let the soils dry down early in Jan.  Snow in the mountains will keep ski resorts busy, with crystal blue sky above those lifts.  Nice.

Long-range forecasts are always changing, much like the mood of a teenager.  So, what is the new outlook this time?  Better refill that holiday Mug.

Broadly speaking, a WET & windy weekend ahead, with most of the precipitation falling during the hours of darkness; showery during daylight.  The system Saturday night will produce moderate-to-heavy rainfall over southern OR, but it will be wet region-wide.  Windy, at times, as well.  

Monday will present some showers with a cooler air mass arriving, drier in the afternoon.  New Year’s Eve is trending on the dry side, with morning frost possible.  We see a return to rain as the midnight clock chimes in the New Year - 2025.  Wet New Year’s Day around the PNW.   

 🌹🌹 The 2025 Rose Bowl game will be dry & mild.  Again, wet Jan 1 and also through Fri Jan 3.  Windy, at times.  

The first weekend of the New Year is charting with a storm arriving late day Sat, turning wet overnight and then drying out on Sunday Jan 5.  

Week of Jan 6-10 has been charting as DRY, cool and presenting an east wind.  NO Arctic air mass issues - as of the past few model runs - the cold Arctic blast will move in east of the Rockies.  Note that a quick moving front may bring precip over NW WA and BC on Fri the 10th. 

The ‘always changing’ factor of weather was well illustrated the past couple of days.  No wind issues here in OR early this morning, but the Low a couple days ago DID deepen rapidly as it curled over NW WA, producing strong winds across much of western OR & WA.  This was not expected, and only showed on forecast charts quite late before the event.  Moody atmosphere.

POTENTIAL WIND EVENT - Western Oregon.  Issued Tue Dec 24.

-Rufus

=========

Monday December 23

Bullet forecast to get you back to holiday activity.

• Today: break in the rain, but only for several hours.  Expect rain & breezy conditions beginning tonight through Tue morning.  
• Christmas Eve:  Another break in the steady rain after the morning hours; scattered showers can’t be ruled out late afternoon.  
• Christmas Day:  Timing may shift, but right now, expect steady rain to move in sometime during the late morning hours — this storm will be a real drenching system, so HEAVY RAIN up & down the OR, WA, BC region can be expected beginning overnight on into the next day. WINDY!  
• Thu Dec 26:  Rain likely to continue, with a very brief let-up in southern OR.  Increasing moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Fri.  Localized flooding possible.  WINDS could present gust over 35-45 mph in OR; stronger at the coast.  
• Fri Dec 27:  Before daylight, WINDY in OR, rain turning to showers during the day.  Cooler.  Next system due in hours. 
• Sat Dec 28:  Moderate-to-heavy rain in western OR.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Localized flooding probable.  
• Sunday Dec 29:  Continued moderate-to-heavy rain.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Increasing flooding concern.  
• Monday through Wed, New Year’s Day - showers diminishing, but notably colder.  Frost possible New Year’s Eve night.  Caution.
• Thu Jan 2 - Sun Jan 5: Colder.  Chance for rain Friday.  Saturday system wet and possibly turning cold enough for a rain/snow mix at the surface; snow in the hills.  Chance for snow showers Sunday.