The end is near.  What will the weather machine produce as 2025 gets started?  We’ll Mug up and make the attempt to foresee.  Ready?

Dry & chilly through the end of the year.  Rain will return before the clock strikes midnight on New Year’s Eve.  A chilly rain, with snow in the Cascades and even the potential for a bit of The White in the higher hills of the coast range.  Snowy east side and eastern end of the Columbia Gorge.  A second front will rapidly move onshore during the Rose Bowl game, impacting southern OR the most, with areas north of Vancouver WA not likely to get any precip.  Freezing rain possible in the Columbia Gorge early Thu morning, Jan 2, as a warm front moves northeast from southern OR.  That front will continue pushing moisture to the NE well into Fri Jan 3.  WIND will be strong from the east out of the Gaps, both Frazer & Columbia - not an Arctic cold blast, but notably windy.  The Arctic air will remain east of the Rockies.

For Fri, travel may be a mess for Patrons east of the Cascades with warmer air aloft dropping rain into subfreezing surface temps east side.  Some areas with SNOW, others with risk of freezing rain, including Bend/Redmond into John Day area.  Snow across eastern WA well into Sat Jan 4.  Overall, it will be wet west side and snowy east side throughout the first weekend of the New Year.  WINDY.  Sunday Jan 5 does present with less moisture, but not dry.  Patrons in ID, MT, WY will get a decent winter snow storm this coming weekend.  

As we have been noting for a few forecasts now, a DRY period should arrive during the week of Jan 6-10.  That said, one more wet front is charting for Mon Jan 6.  Rain & showers rapidly diminish late afternoon on Mon, then the longest stretch of DRY wx in quite some time will finally set up.  Expect morning fog, or frosty fog in colder locations, along with probable sunshine in the afternoons from Tue Jan 7 through Thu Jan 16.  Exception — Patrons in NW WA, Puget Sound, Vancouver BC region will get a quite shot of rain overnight Jan 9, then back to dry, like the rest of us.

Around the PNW, the air mass will cool a bit more by the weekend of Jan 11,12.  Again, Arctic air will remain east of the Rockies, but a small ’spill over to the west’ will chill down the eastern basins and kick-off an east wind from the Gaps.

Regionally, it will be good to let the soils dry down early in Jan.  Snow in the mountains will keep ski resorts busy, with crystal blue sky above those lifts.  Nice.

Long-range forecasts are always changing, much like the mood of a teenager.  So, what is the new outlook this time?  Better refill that holiday Mug.

Broadly speaking, a WET & windy weekend ahead, with most of the precipitation falling during the hours of darkness; showery during daylight.  The system Saturday night will produce moderate-to-heavy rainfall over southern OR, but it will be wet region-wide.  Windy, at times, as well.  

Monday will present some showers with a cooler air mass arriving, drier in the afternoon.  New Year’s Eve is trending on the dry side, with morning frost possible.  We see a return to rain as the midnight clock chimes in the New Year - 2025.  Wet New Year’s Day around the PNW.   

 🌹🌹 The 2025 Rose Bowl game will be dry & mild.  Again, wet Jan 1 and also through Fri Jan 3.  Windy, at times.  

The first weekend of the New Year is charting with a storm arriving late day Sat, turning wet overnight and then drying out on Sunday Jan 5.  

Week of Jan 6-10 has been charting as DRY, cool and presenting an east wind.  NO Arctic air mass issues - as of the past few model runs - the cold Arctic blast will move in east of the Rockies.  Note that a quick moving front may bring precip over NW WA and BC on Fri the 10th. 

The ‘always changing’ factor of weather was well illustrated the past couple of days.  No wind issues here in OR early this morning, but the Low a couple days ago DID deepen rapidly as it curled over NW WA, producing strong winds across much of western OR & WA.  This was not expected, and only showed on forecast charts quite late before the event.  Moody atmosphere.

POTENTIAL WIND EVENT - Western Oregon.  Issued Tue Dec 24.

-Rufus

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Monday December 23

Bullet forecast to get you back to holiday activity.

• Today: break in the rain, but only for several hours.  Expect rain & breezy conditions beginning tonight through Tue morning.  
• Christmas Eve:  Another break in the steady rain after the morning hours; scattered showers can’t be ruled out late afternoon.  
• Christmas Day:  Timing may shift, but right now, expect steady rain to move in sometime during the late morning hours — this storm will be a real drenching system, so HEAVY RAIN up & down the OR, WA, BC region can be expected beginning overnight on into the next day. WINDY!  
• Thu Dec 26:  Rain likely to continue, with a very brief let-up in southern OR.  Increasing moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Fri.  Localized flooding possible.  WINDS could present gust over 35-45 mph in OR; stronger at the coast.  
• Fri Dec 27:  Before daylight, WINDY in OR, rain turning to showers during the day.  Cooler.  Next system due in hours. 
• Sat Dec 28:  Moderate-to-heavy rain in western OR.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Localized flooding probable.  
• Sunday Dec 29:  Continued moderate-to-heavy rain.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Increasing flooding concern.  
• Monday through Wed, New Year’s Day - showers diminishing, but notably colder.  Frost possible New Year’s Eve night.  Caution.
• Thu Jan 2 - Sun Jan 5: Colder.  Chance for rain Friday.  Saturday system wet and possibly turning cold enough for a rain/snow mix at the surface; snow in the hills.  Chance for snow showers Sunday.  

Bullet forecast to quickly get you back to holiday activity.  

• Today: break in the rain, but only for several hours.  Expect rain & breezy conditions beginning tonight through Tue morning.  
• Christmas Eve:  Another break in the steady rain after the morning hours; scattered showers can’t be ruled out late afternoon.  
• Christmas Day:  Timing may shift, but right now, expect steady rain to move in sometime during the late morning hours — this storm will be a real drenching system, so HEAVY RAIN up & down the OR, WA, BC region can be expected beginning overnight on into the next day. WINDY!  
• Thu Dec 26:  Rain likely to continue, with a very brief let-up in southern OR.  Increasing moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Fri.  Localized flooding possible.  WINDS could present gust over 35-45 mph in OR; stronger at the coast.  
• Fri Dec 27:  Before daylight, WINDY in OR, rain turning to showers during the day.  Cooler.  Next system due in hours. 
• Sat Dec 28:  Moderate-to-heavy rain in western OR.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Localized flooding probable.  
• Sunday Dec 29:  Continued moderate-to-heavy rain.  Not as heavy in WA/BC.  Increasing flooding concern.  
• Monday through Wed, New Year’s Day - showers diminishing, but notably colder.  Frost possible New Year’s Eve night.  Caution.
• Thu Jan 2 - Sun Jan 5: Colder.  Chance for rain Friday.  Saturday system wet and possibly turning cold enough for a rain/snow mix at the surface; snow in the hills.  Chance for snow showers Sunday.  

There are lots of gatherings, parties, shopping, and general ‘moving about’ the next several days, and it’s well known that weather can impact plans  —>> Lots of ACTIVE weather coming, so be aware and be prepared!!  December 2024 will close out with a "slam, bam, thank you m’am” before we probably enter the ‘freezer’ in January 2025.  Let’s take a peek.  Mug time.

Rain returns as astronomical winter begins tomorrow, Dec 21, and a fairly weak front moves on by.  The next system arrives promptly on Sunday, with plenty of rain.  Wetter still will be a strong storm pushing into the PNW late Mon Dec 23.  Patrons traveling the region may catch a break in the rain during the main portion of the day Monday.

Christmas Eve: the strong storm noted above will be departing, so we catch another break before a drenching storm arrives during Christmas Day.  Models indicate a second Low will rapidly develop overnight Dec 25 into Thu Dec 26 with the potential for POWERFUL WINDS, depending on the track and depth.  Update here Monday.

Friday Dec 27 will be wet.  A system is modeled for landfall along the central OR coast before sunrise Saturday Dec 28.  WIND may be an issue south of Salem.  Again, stay tuned.

The last weekend of 2024 is trending showery with temperatures dropping.  Rain/snow mix possible in the Puget Sound overnight Sunday into Mon Dec 30, as cold air begins to infiltrate from the NW.  A Yukon Dome over 1040 mb is modeled to develop and begin shifting south as the year ends.  This may have IMPACT on the entire west coast in early January.

Conditions currently look rather calm & chilly for New Year’s Eve.  

Some model runs move Arctic Air into the PNW before Jan 2, others delay until Jan 3 or 4, with cold rain Thu morning Jan 2, turning SNOWY to end the week, Fri Jan 3.  Either way, expect WINTER to arrive with a blast of modified Arctic Event to start the New Year.  VERY COLD pattern, with powerful winds out of the Gaps - Fraser & Columbia.  Subfreezing temps.  Prepare during your time off to protect business and home plumbing.  

Getting out of these Arctic Events always causes issues with snow & freezing rain.  Let’s see if this develops, as charted the past couple of days.

Good news is that daylight will slowly last longer starting Sunday!  Winter Solstice 2024 is tomorrow, Saturday Dec 21.