Greetings.  Let’s get this week going, shall we?  Mug full?

Dry today and Tue, with tomorrow turning quite warm, esp in the Willamette Valley (85-90F possible).  A notable WIND this afternoon & evening in western OR.  On Wed, we can expect some rain and cooler temps, with showers lingering into Thu.  Another weak system may provide additional precip Thu night into early Fri, but mainly north Chehalis.  

Our coming weekend looks quite pleasant.  Dry & mild-to-warm (70s to 80s), along with rather WINDY in southern OR, west & east.  Continued dry & mild the following week.  

The big change begins on Fri Oct 4, if models verify.  A warm, ‘water-logged' Pacific storm is charting to arrive on the 4th.  Center Low pressure could enter the range of pressures that generate powerful winds, so we will monitor this system closely.  For now, the storm tracks inside the 130W line, which usually is the first qualifier for our strong wind producers.  Barometric center pressure could be in the 985-988 mb as the center crosses Vancouver Island ~ Friday night.  Our dangerous wind storms have center pressures ~960s - mid 970s.  As it stands now, that system could be our first notable wind and heavy rain storm of the fall season.  Stay tuned.

WET the weekend of Oct 5,6. Mostly showers on Sunday and again on Mon Oct 7, to get another week started.  It should dry out by Tue the 8th, with mild-to-warm temps for much of that week.  

There are changes in the long-range outlook since our last update.  Best to refill that Mug, Patron. 

End of Astronomical Summer.  The weekend ahead will be dry & mild, with summer ending early Sunday morning.  For Patrons north of Chehalis, a weak system clipping southern BC will usher in clouds and chance for showers late Sunday into Monday; the rest of the PNW should remain dry and pleasant.   Fall Equinox is early Sunday.

For the week of Sep 23-27, Oregon will have dry conditions with mild to warm (80s), temperatures.  A couple weak systems are charting to bring a clouds with scattered showers for areas north of Longview on Wed and again Thu night; dry otherwise.  Northern Vancouver Island looks damp most of next week.  

Go Figure.  You guessed it, the models reverted back to the drier pattern mentioned earlier, dropping the heavy rain next week and the last weekend of September.  Such a swing for planning, but that is the nature of forecasting Nature.  We now see dry weather, other than the few showers noted above, for the entire PNW from now through Oct 3.  In that period, there could be a few days with temps climbing into the 80s, esp in the Willamette Valley.  

Rain.  If (and that is a big if) models are correct, moderate-to-heavy rain will arrive the weekend of Oct 4,5.  Keep your Mug handy, as fall has a way of surprising even the best weather models & forecasters.  

There is a possibility that a significant change in the long-range outlook is developing.  Not definite yet, but important for us to consider the impact late month, esp on fall harvests.  For now, grab your fav morn’n beverage and read on.

Today will be pleasant, as we wait the arrival of fall-like rain tomorrow.  Models suggest a quarter-to-half-inch of precipitation is possible around the region from the coming system.  Expect Tue to be cooler & WET.  The rain should diminish overnight Tue, with scattered showers lingering early Wed.  The balance of the week will be dry & pleasant.  Scattered showers in California.

The wx this coming weekend is not quite ’settled’ by the models.  It could be WET from Chehalis north; dry & mild for OR and to the east, or mild with increasing clouds & chance for showers regionally by Sunday.  

🫤 Why the uncertainty, especially given that precious charts indicated a dry pattern for the balance of September?  The problem, as we see it, is that models are struggling with a potentially large scale shift in the overall upper level wind pattern.  Meaning - - a change to a classic period of fall rains, wind and generally stormy weather for a week or longer.  Gone would be a dry end to the month.  Given that potential, we will posit the following forecast, right or wrong.

Whether or not the coming weekend remains unsettled, NEXT week will begin the change to a WET & stormy pattern, as the ‘jet stream’ shifts to favor such development.  Therefore, expect the wet system over Vancouver Island Sunday night to continue spreading south into the entire PNW by Tue Sep 24.  Breezy.  Showers post-frontal passage are likely Wed & Thu.  A break on Fri, with sunshine and mild temps before another much wetter system arrives overnight Fri the 27th into Sat.  Heaviest rain will fall north of Portland.  Sip.

On Saturday the 28th, another storm will develop farther to the south, the center of which will push onshore around Astoria.  Heaviest rain will fall in the Willamette Valley, south.  Concurrently, in the Gulf of Alaska, systems will begin to deepen into powerful fall storms, the first of which will make landfall in the Alaskan Panhandle, but have a large rain (and wind?) field that keeps the PNW wet late Mon into Tue Oct 1.  The Puget Sound region will likely to be hammered with rain.  Cumulative precip throughout this period could exceed 2 inches in the lowlands, 4-6 inches in the Cascades & coast range; more so for coastal BC.

The details above are likely to vary, of course, but the point here is to prep you for a week of wet weather as the month of September ends.  (Long-time Patrons know that often model outlooks revert back to earlier progs as the solution, so all this rain talk over coffee could be null & void.)  We’ll see what charts on Friday.

Mild & periodically damp.  That’s the wrap on the wx for the remainder of September.  Sip time

As our tag line suggests, not much ’big’ weather action ahead, just a few days with showers, some cloudiness, mild temps (60s-70s) and thankfully, decent sun breaks.  Oh, and add an extended dry spell at the end, as well.

In the near term, we can expect the driest days - speaking broadly, for the entire PNW - will be today and Monday; the wettest days will be next Tue and early Wed the 18th.  For this weekend, most of the showers will be over the Puget Sound region; here in Oregon we can’t rule out at least the chance for a couple, mainly Sunday.  

Next week will yield a pleasant Monday before the wettest system for the rest of Sept arrives.  The Wx Service suggests this one could be strong enough to truly tap-down the forest fires.  Let’s hope this verifies.  It will turn DRY starting late Wed.

That’s right, models suggest a dry period that could last on through the balance of September.  Furthermore, the last several days of the month may trend up into the warm temperatures range, primarily for western OR.  Too early to peg that, just a mention for now.

The nights ahead will trend cool, which can be favorable to conditioning wine grapes to the delight of vintners. “Diurnal Swing."

Although a bit corny, today’s quip is weather related.  From the ’Net:  “Where do bad rainbows go?  To Prism. It’s a light sentence, but it gives them time to reflect.”  

A few showers are on the way, as are very pleasant afternoons.  A mild mix of weather, for sure.  Read on ☕️  

Cooler temperatures are now be in play around the PNW for the next couple of weeks, with the chance for showers across much of the region during the following periods:  Overnight Tue into early Wed this week and again Tue through Wed NEXT week, Sep 17-19. (Early Fri the 20th, showers may move in over the Puget Sound, north).  It should be dry & mild in between those damp periods.  BTW: it does NOT look super wet, just damp enough to get noticed, given how dry it has been lately.  Also, the rain we mentioned for California is now off the charts.

Back to this week: clearing from the north on Thu, presenting a dry, mild period on through the coming weekend.  The Mt Angel Oktoberfest, Sep 12-15, should have pleasant weather.  Prost!  

After the showers Sep 17,18,19 we can expect clearing & mild temperatures to set up through the weekend of Sep 21,22.

An NE wind may develop, as the week of Sep 23 - 27 is trending dry early, before a system from the west threatens a ‘fall rain’ event by Thu or Fri.  Maybe.

Sign your host saw posted in Veterinarian’s office last week:  “Unattended children will be given espresso and a free kitten.”