Plenty of rain, wind, and yes, sun breaks ahead as the 10th month of the year ends and the 11th begins.  Refresh your Mug and get back here.  

Showers today, decreasing by Tue, with a few turning into thunderstorms given the cold air aloft.  Mountain snow.  The next storm front is modeled for Wed.  This one will be start out rather mild when the warm front pushes onshore; turning quite wet and blustery as the cold front moves past..  

A secondary Low is now modeled to form right afterward, setting up a damp HALLOWEEN.  —> Note: there are indications that this smaller, tightly-packed Low will move onshore around the central OR coast later on Thu, with a rather powerful WIND FIELD along the south coast of OR, maybe a bit inland, too.  Trick or Treaters in OR are more likely to deal with showers than those in the Puget Sound area. (We may have jinxed Halloween in our last forecast - saying it was going to be dry.  Oops.)

It looks fairly dry Fri the 8th before a weak system moves in sometime Saturday, for additional rain/showers.  Earlier solutions held this system off until Sunday, but we suggest one prepares for wet conditions Sat.

Next week trends dry early, with some rain over Vancouver Island and the far NW WA area on ELECTION DAY.   Dry Wed Nov 6, but then BE READY.  What we will term as the first major fall storm pattern of the season is charting to arrive Thu Nov 7.  Heavy rain, WINDY Thursday through Saturday the 9th.  Localized flooding issues probable, esp given plugged storm drains.  A short break in the powerful storm(s) will happen Sunday Nov 10, as the rain field shifts into California.    More rain on tap for Mon Nov 11.  Sip.

Here’s when we may get our first notable region-wide WIND STORM of the fall.  Models are not conclusive this far out, but have indicated a large, deep Low pressure center developing in eastern Pacific, moving onshore along the southern BC coast.  The wind field from this storm could impact the PNW, along with additional heavy rainfall.  Please tuck this into your ‘what if’ pocket - lots can change by then.  Just know that strong fall storms are on tap to develop over the Gulf of Alaska, some possibly moving close enough to the PNW to get our attention.  Yep, it’s that time of year.

Last day of the week; last day of dry conditions for a spell.  Classic chilly late October morn’n at hand, so Mug up and read on.

A fairly small-scale Low pressure system is charting to arrive later this evening from the west, with most of the rain/wind impacting NW WA, southern BC.  Oregon will get some precip overnight tonight (Fri), as well.  Breezy.  Another, stronger system, charts to arrive Saturday night.  With plenty of cold air support, this storm will push a decent rain band inland as Sunday morning gets underway.  Blustery, with possible thunderstorm here & there around the PNW.  Notably cooler!  Snow level will drop in the Cascades, so expect several inches above the passes by Mon the 28th, as the Low center drifts south along the WA coast, moving onshore around Astoria.  Cumulative weekend precip range around 3/4" to 1.25", depending on your location.  

Next week will start out with lingering showers on Mon, with a short break Tue (leaf cleanup day), cool temps.  Next system will present itself on Wed Oct 30 with lots of moderate rainfall and another dip in the temperatures after the front passes.  Blustery day, as well.  Thu, Halloween, will be chilly & showery, as the storm’s center Low pressure moves onshore farther south than Sunday’s system - say, Lincoln City area - around noon.  Blustery.  Trick or Treat time should be dry, but quite chilly for the costume walkers.  Friday, the first day of November, looks dry until late night, as another weak storm moves onshore overnight into Sat.  Not much precip with this one.

Sat/Sun Nov 2,3 trends as dry & and a bit warmer than the previous several days.  Could be foggy Sunday morning.

Models have ’struggled’ with solutions for the early week of November, as we indicated previously.  Latest models runs keep it generally DRY and relatively mild from the first weekend in November through Tue Nov 5 - ELECTION DAY - except for the far NW corner of WA and Vancouver Island region on the 5th.  A small, tightly packed Low may move onshore over southern BC, draping a rain band across western WA overnight Tue.  Dry elsewhere on through the balance of the week, Nov 4-8.

Early yet, but the PNW could move into another wet/cold cycle around Nov 11, as the Pacific High could shift farther west over the Gulf of Alaska, setting up the potential for development of a 'Yukon Dome’ and lower elevation snow mid-Nov.  All conjecture, of course, but worthy of a ponder.

Monday October 21

Fairly dry week ahead, then a more steady supply of moisture arrives to wrap up the month.  Let’s take a gander, shall we?

Showers today will decrease overnight, yielding a decent week of generally dry, but chilly, weather.  Morning fog possible in the usual ‘foggy bottoms’ around the PNW.  While our expected shift into a steady wet pattern may start a day later than previous charts indicated, we do see a damp weekend ahead.

Indications are for our next organized Pacific storm to push onshore late Fri or early Sat, Oct 26.  This one will not be particularly strong, just a good wet system.  Breezy.  There should be a short break in the action during the early portion of Sunday the 27th, before another - more steady - damp pattern arrives.  And, this time, notably cooler temps will arrive.  Snow in the Cascades, possibly at or below pass level by Wed Oct 30.  Expect generally wet conditions all week, although heavy downpours are not charting at this time.  Yes, HALLOWEEN is looking chilly and damp. Quite normal for these here parts.

For the early part of November (beginning Fri the 1st), models have diverged from our earlier forecast - of course!  Now the charts indicate possible showers on Sat Nov 2, drying Sunday the 3rd, then, instead of heavy rain the next week, a dry High pressure ridge may form, blocking Pacific storms from entering the region through Nov 6.   We’ll see.  As long-time Patrons recall, models do REVERT back to earlier solutions when the actual period approaches.  So, for now, we will not “make book” on a forecast for early November.  

Friday October 18

He's Back!  Not The Terminator, just a wx geek sharing long-range forecasts with you.  Ready?  ☕️  Let’s do it.  

Today & this weekend will be a split-decision kind of pattern, with the northern 1/2 of western WA, along with southern BC, getting hammered with multiple inches of rain & plenty of wind gusts.  SW WA & OR, on down into northern CA, will avoid the rain until later on Sunday.  Mild temps.   Late Sunday, the rain band will shift south, providing a quick-shot of rain to western OR & northern CA.  

Regionally, showers will linger a bit on Mon the 21st, leading into a pleasant, dry fall pattern that could last through Fri Oct 25.  Enjoy it while you can.  Temps will be mild, although a light frost could appear across portions of the eastern basins early in the week.  A wet warm front will move into the PNW overnight Thu into Fri, setting up the beginning of an extended rainy pattern.  A Classic Fall rainy period begins. 

WET, blustery and notably cooler weekend to begin the last weekend of October.  Snow in the higher elevations, both north & south Cascades.  Sunday night, the 27th will usher in another very wet system from the NW.  Only the beginning, Patrons.

The week of Halloween is looking constantly WET and blustery.  Inches of precip is on tap, with steady rainfall every day through the week AND through the weekend of Nov 2,3!   Get a few good books.  Indoor time.

The “daily rain” pattern is currently charting to begin around Fri Oct 25 and last at least through the first week of November.  

Total cumulative precipitation, per most recent model compilations, is forecast to be in the 5” to 10” range from today through Nov 3.  Higher end of that range will be in the coast & Cascade ranges.  Localized flooding will be probable, so keep aware & heed Nat’l Wx Service statements.  

Ponder Point: possible low elevation SNOW as a ‘winter-cold’ air mass may settle in over the PNW around Nov 5 - ELECTION DAY.  Stay tuned, Patron.  We are entering a La Nińa pattern. 

Showers over Vancouver Island this afternoon, spreading over NW WA overnight heading into Tue.  Warm today across the PNW.  Limited chance for any precip south of, say, Chehalis, until Wed, when cool air aloft expands the range of showers for a day or two.  Even then, not much precip is expected.  The coming weekend is trending dry & quite pleasant for all.  

Next week is on tap to be fall-like, with periods of cloudiness and rain.  Monday looks wet & a bit blustery; eastern basins included, as will be northern ID.  Key wet periods will be Mon, early Tue, Wed (esp western WA --> lots of rain!).  OR may miss out on notable rainfall after Monday, as the ‘jet stream’ will be pointed at NW WA & southern BC.  

The weekend of Oct 19,20 is charting as dry for most of the PNW, excluding Vancouver Island, southern BC and far NW WA - wet each day.  Rain may spread farther south over much of western WA on Sunday the 20th.  Increasing cloudiness for NW OR, but right now, steady rain is not suggested.

It does look dry across the PNW Mon, Tue, and maybe Wed, Oct 21-23.  Lots of time to verify this. Good pattern to harvest hazelnuts.

Again, please pardon our absence for a week.  We are taking a ‘recation’ -- retirement vacation.