The WxCafe™

Expected Wx

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 02, 2024

Friday August 2

We now Enter the last full month of the summer season. The weather ahead looks exactly like one would expect for August in the PNW: Dry & Warm. Iced coffee time. Mug up, Patron!

Simple forecast for all the PNW: Dry through at least Aug 16. Temps will range from the 60s along the coast and bounce around between 85-95 degrees inland; tad cooler around the sound, tad warmer east side.

Thunderstorms / showers are possible the weekend of Aug 17,18; the first threat of widespread measurable precipitation around the PNW.

🌀Tropical Topical: DEBBY likely to be named soon. The dry, dusty Saharan Air Layer over the tropical Atlantic is lessened in the area around Cuba, where this system is now entering. Models are finally picking this up and pointing out possible tracks. The sooner it strengthens, the sooner it will make a more northerly turn; if it stays weak and crosses into Gulf of Mexico (GOMex), all bets are off. Some model projections run DEBBY up across central FL as a weak depression, then strengthening as it tracks up the eastern seaboard; outlier solutions run DEBBY into the GOMex, where all kinds of paths become possible, including crossing over FL then up the eastern seaboard or threatening the FL panhandle.

From the ’Net: “I’ve come to the conclusion that my memory is like an Etch A Sketch; I shake my head and forget everything."

-Rufus

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Toasty Nineties

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 29, 2024

Monday July 29

Refreshing showers this morning. Ahhhh. July ends with mild conditions and a gentle touch of precipitation. Enjoy the coolness because the 'toasty nineties' return with a new month. Mug refilled?

We never shy away from making errors, as this morning’s light rain confirms. Last report, we just didn’t see a strong enough pattern to usher in some rain today — we were way wrong. But, a delightful mistake anyway, unless you have just bailed that hay or alfalfa. It will dry off quickly. Warm weather returns this week, as models project another round of HOT temperatures beginning later this week.

By Thu, temps will rapidly rebound into the upper 80s-to-low 90s in many OR locations; the heat will expand northward on Fri for a 5 day run of 90+ temperatures around western OR & WA this weekend on through Tue Aug 6. Yes, east side, too.

By the middle of next week, Aug 7, temps may get tapped down a few degrees, as a weak onshore flow begins to develop. It may not be strong enough to ‘clear out’ 90 degree heat in the southern Willamette Valley until Thu or Fri, Aug 8,9.

The weekend of Aug 10,11 is trending pleasantly cooler, with an onshore breeze & morning marine cloud deck; warmer temps return to start the week of Aug 12. Indeed, summer remains in play.

“Wouldn’t is be nice to be as sure of anything as some people are of everything?”

-Rufus

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Pleasant Summer

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 26, 2024

Friday July 26

Comfortable summer weather continues as we near the end of July. Morn’n bev ready?

Pleasant temp range this weekend around the PNW. By late Sunday, a cool trough of Low pressure drops south along the BC coast, ushering in a chance for a few showers over Vancouver Is & environs. Partly cloudy, mild over the Sound, with chance for a shower or two. (We simply do not ’see’ a big rain event next week, as have other forecasters, but we could be in error.) For OR & ID, expect the sunny pattern to roll through the weekend and continue next week.

Right now, it looks like our next ‘heat up’ may begin later next week, say Thu or Fri. Temps around the PNW are likely to bump back up into the uncomfortable range —> 90+.

The first few days of August - including the weekend - could be rather toasty & a tad muggy, as a heat Low builds to the east, setting off possible thunderstorms east side. Early yet on this, but be aware. The heat will reach north into SW BC. Sunday could be a few degrees cooler, esp north of Chehalis.

Weak onshore flow for the week of Aug 5-9 should tap down regional temperatures back into the 80s inland (warmer in the eastern basins).

🌀 Topical Tropical: The Eastern Pacific will spin up a couple hurricanes, with no threat of landfall. The yet-to-be-named storm, CARLOTTA, may drift towards to Hawaii before diminishing. Quiet in the Atlantic, although the dry Saharan air mass may weaken, opening the door for tropical storm development west of Africa.

“A yawn is at least an honest opinion."

-Rufus

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Pleasant

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 22, 2024

Monday July 22

Pleasant wx pattern ahead to run out the month of July (hey, slow down summer!). Mug time.

Indeed, temperatures will remain pleasant for the last days of July 2024; morning marine clouds will pop in, at times, esp over the Puget Sound north, with clearing in the afternoons (a shower or two possible for northern half of Vancouver Island). Temp range will be 70s to low 80s NW WA; 80s for western OR, although a few 90s may tease out across southern OR and eastern basins of WA & OR. No notable precip.

The first week of August is currently trending approximately 10 degrees warmer than these last days of July. It will remain dry.

Topical Tropical: an abundance of a very dry Saharan Air Layer across the hurricane ‘birthing zone’ of the tropical Atlantic will continue to inhibit the formation and/or intensification of tropical storms, at least in the short term.

“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” -Soren Kierkegaard

-Rufus

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Summer Shorts

Posted by Rufus La Lone on July 19, 2024

Friday July 19

Great time for wearing summer shorts; we’ll keep this short, too. You know the refill drill. Got it?

No rain through at least Aug 6.
Plenty of sunshine, although a few mornings will present a marine cloud deck - esp Puget Sound region.
Temps will trend up a few days (this weekend), then down a few days - all within the range of 80-95, cooler on the coast.
A few days next week will be the coolest since early June.
Possible storm cells along eastern slopes of the Cascades on Sunday the 21st.
Afternoon breezes, esp Columbia Gorge.

“Most of the time, the shortest distance between two points is under construction.”

-Rufus

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