Our tag line today relates to how Nature responded to our last forecast of "dry through at least Oct 20” - now rain & showers are likely, at times.  It’s as though Nature says, “Watch this!”  Or, it could be that lots of Patrons washed their cars, which always brings on rain!?  It’s the first Friday of October 2024, so let’s get to why you are here with a morn’n beverage in hand. 

Rain today, with showers lingering into the evening.  Cooler.  The weekend does look dry & mild.  As for next week, we see another chance for a few showers, esp over the Vancouver Island & the Puget Sound later on Mon the 7th on into nightfall.  A repeat of this is likely for Tue night into early Wed, which should include NW OR.  After that, it looks dry to wrap up the week of Oct 7-11,  EXCEPT for a chance for showers over mainly western OR overnight Thu Oct 10.  

There may be a bit of FOG Sat morning, the 13th, in the lowlands, but the weekend is charting as dry & mild.  A NE breeze should arrive Sunday on into Mon the 14th, keeping fog away.  Dry through that week until Fri Oct 18, when another Pacific storm is on the charts for Fri night. 

So, obviously, Oct will not be nearly as dry as we had forecast earlier this week.  Still, the models do not present super-wet storms nor multiple wet days in a row.  Will that hold?  Check back here on Monday.  

From 14 years ago: “It’s getting so that take-home pay can hardly survive the trip."

“…Off the models, everyone.”  Indeed, the current long-range outlook is dry.  Let’s take a look.

Other than a possible shower or two in the far NW corner of the PNW (Vancouver Is., northern WA Cascades) early this week and again this coming weekend, we do not see ANY notable precipitation through at least Oct 20.  Sure, models do trend back-n-forth, but for now, the charts keep stable High pressure patterns blocking any normal fall Pacific storms from our region.  

Easy forecast:  Mild temps, with very little risk of frost, over the next 2-3 weeks.  Stop by again on Friday for an update.  Maybe rain will return to our forecasts.

As the tag line suggests, our wx for the next couple of weeks is trending to be mild, with a couple shots of precipitation just to remind us it is fall, after all. Got your fav morn’n beverage refilled?

This weekend looks fine, although a few clouds will linger over the Puget Sound area.  Sunday will be quite breezy in OR, because a High pressure ridge will set offshore, coupled with a Low over the continental divide.  Leaves will be "a blow’n”.

We see generally dry conditions next week, with a few extra clouds over the Puget Sound on Tue & Thu, thus the possibility for a shower or two.  Friday looks pleasant, but by afternoon or nightfall, the leading edge of an October storm will be making its way onshore.

The weekend of Oct 5,6 will likely start out WET on Sat, with clearing from the north by Sunday morning.  Dry late day Sunday — with a run of 5 or 6 days of dry, mild weather through Oct 11.

Another damp weekend may develop Oct 12,13, especially over western WA and southern BC.  We suspect this outlook will change.  

On the Mild Side.  We do not see a frost threat through at least Oct 15.  Low temps in the upper 30s are possible east side after next weekend’s cold front passes.  Although the lack of an early frost does ’tap down’ the brilliance of fall colors, lots of foliage is beginning to color-up.  Enjoy.

Ponder Point:  During our 44 years of attempting to forecast PNW weather, the following has proven to be a factor.   Long-range weather models tend to present a higher level of variance in the summer-fall transition (as well as winter-spring).  With this year’s La Niña setting up, it may take the 'computer brains' a bit longer to adjust.  We’ll understand.  

Greetings.  Let’s get this week going, shall we?  Mug full?

Dry today and Tue, with tomorrow turning quite warm, esp in the Willamette Valley (85-90F possible).  A notable WIND this afternoon & evening in western OR.  On Wed, we can expect some rain and cooler temps, with showers lingering into Thu.  Another weak system may provide additional precip Thu night into early Fri, but mainly north Chehalis.  

Our coming weekend looks quite pleasant.  Dry & mild-to-warm (70s to 80s), along with rather WINDY in southern OR, west & east.  Continued dry & mild the following week.  

The big change begins on Fri Oct 4, if models verify.  A warm, ‘water-logged' Pacific storm is charting to arrive on the 4th.  Center Low pressure could enter the range of pressures that generate powerful winds, so we will monitor this system closely.  For now, the storm tracks inside the 130W line, which usually is the first qualifier for our strong wind producers.  Barometric center pressure could be in the 985-988 mb as the center crosses Vancouver Island ~ Friday night.  Our dangerous wind storms have center pressures ~960s - mid 970s.  As it stands now, that system could be our first notable wind and heavy rain storm of the fall season.  Stay tuned.

WET the weekend of Oct 5,6. Mostly showers on Sunday and again on Mon Oct 7, to get another week started.  It should dry out by Tue the 8th, with mild-to-warm temps for much of that week.  

There are changes in the long-range outlook since our last update.  Best to refill that Mug, Patron. 

End of Astronomical Summer.  The weekend ahead will be dry & mild, with summer ending early Sunday morning.  For Patrons north of Chehalis, a weak system clipping southern BC will usher in clouds and chance for showers late Sunday into Monday; the rest of the PNW should remain dry and pleasant.   Fall Equinox is early Sunday.

For the week of Sep 23-27, Oregon will have dry conditions with mild to warm (80s), temperatures.  A couple weak systems are charting to bring a clouds with scattered showers for areas north of Longview on Wed and again Thu night; dry otherwise.  Northern Vancouver Island looks damp most of next week.  

Go Figure.  You guessed it, the models reverted back to the drier pattern mentioned earlier, dropping the heavy rain next week and the last weekend of September.  Such a swing for planning, but that is the nature of forecasting Nature.  We now see dry weather, other than the few showers noted above, for the entire PNW from now through Oct 3.  In that period, there could be a few days with temps climbing into the 80s, esp in the Willamette Valley.  

Rain.  If (and that is a big if) models are correct, moderate-to-heavy rain will arrive the weekend of Oct 4,5.  Keep your Mug handy, as fall has a way of surprising even the best weather models & forecasters.