New month and the beginning of the “meteorological fall” season.  Is precipitation on the way?  Fill your Mug before reading the answer.  

 

Labor Day Weekend:  a cooler, showery pattern arrives on Saturday, mainly over western WA & southern BC.  Sunday will be a transition day back to WARM sunshine on Labor Day.  Warm, dry conditions will continue through Tue, with Wed ushering in the possibility for thundershowers over portions of the Cascades (OR, primarily).  Mild conditions Thu & Fri, with wind late in the period.

 

As the following weekend (Sept 11,12) approaches, another weak system may drop in from the NW, so expect clouds to increase with the chance for showers - this time over a larger area of the PNW - as that Low spins over N Vancouver Island by Nine-Eleven.  << we will never forget >>   Not a washout, just the chance for wet pavement, at times.  That written, please note, there are solutions that keep the Low farther offshore as it drops south, ushering in a muggy, thunderstorm-type pattern, with WARM temps, esp for OR & eastern basins.  The wind mentioned below may start early.  Read on.

 

A cautionary tale. The middle week of September is trending on the windy side — with a relatively strong Low moving down the coast of BC, setting up possible showers early in the week, or even steady rain over NW WA, then WINDY conditions for OR as that week nears an end.  Actually, a notable ridge of High pressure may begin building over the Yukon and drop south, with WINDS really picking up for much of the PNW by Thu night or Fri.  Pattern could mean WIND trouble for fire concerns in OR, CA & ID.  Pressure gradients are charting in the “oh my” category, if verified, for Fri Sep 17.  Let’s hope for model error.

 

Temperatures will warm again as that air mass compresses and heads for the coast.  Warm conditions (upper 80s OR, bit cooler for the Sound) Sunday Sep 19 that may hold into the middle of the next week.  Gusty NE winds in western valleys.  Quite stormy over the US Midwest, as that 9-11 system mentioned above rolls out of the Rocky Mountain states to stir up a windy, wet mess.  And, oh, there could be a tropical storm playing games with us in the Gulf of Mexico.  Yikes.

 

Bottom line: the PNW may actually get into a brief period when showers & some rain arrives.  At least there’s a higher chance than what we have seen since last June.  The wind concern will not be like last year, but definitely a potential that would not be good for firefighters.

 

Update on The 2021 Walk to End Alzheimer’s - Sept 25.  Our WxCafé Patrons are simply awesome!  With 3 weeks to go, over $2,700 has been contributed to this important cause.  THANK YOU!  Every donation makes a difference, no matter the amount.  We will update again next Fri. 

 https://act.alz.org/site/TR?fr_id=14724&pg=personal&px=18670512

 

 

 

 

Warm summer days will return.  When?  Mug refill time to find out.

 

A cool air mass moved down the BC coast to usher in notably cooler temps in the PNW.  This week will remain cool early, then warm up a bit on Wed & Thu.  But the warmth will not last long.  Looks like the model solutions that forecast a cool, damp holiday weekend (for BC & NW WA) may be the most accurate. 

 

Right now, expect clouds to increase from the north early on Fri Sep 3, setting up a partly cloudy day on Sat of the holiday weekend.   Portions of OR & east side should remain sunny.  Isolated showers possible for the Puget Sound (maybe as far south as Longview/Kelso) both sometime Sat and even more likely on Sunday Sep 5.  While a bit breezy, Labor Day itself should turn clear and DRY.  Portions of western OR, and east, will likely warm into the lower 80s again.  

 

Summer days return.  Tue & Wed after Labor Day are trending WARM and DRY.  Temps could tease the lower 90s in portions of western OR.  Onshore flow may increase by that weekend, holding down temps.  The upper air flow may turn SW, which will pop up humidity and slowly build in the chance for thunderstorms and moisture across OR.  This is way out there, but model solutions are beginning to find this solution.  Temperatures should remain mild-to-warm.

 

Really?  There are indications that mid-September may turn damp.  Not strong-pacific-storm-damp, but enough of a pattern change to bring much needed precipitation across the region.  Firefighters long for this.  We all long for this.

 

 

 

Nearing the end of the month with a warm weekend ahead.  It will turn cooler again before more summer temps are possible.  Mug ready?  Here we go —

 

This weekend will be pleasant, with Sunday coming bringing on the warmest temps - could be in the mid-80s or higher for western OR; a bit cooler over the Sound.  An onshore flow will begin again next week, so expect a mild, but dry, week ahead leading into the last summer holiday.

 

Model solutions for the Labor Day weekend have been back-n-forth showing either dry & warm or cooler, with chance for some precipitation, esp over WA & BC midway through the holiday.  For today, we’ll recommend planning for a mild temperature holiday period with the chance for showers over the northern tier of the PNW, esp on Sunday.  Labor Day may turn out just fine, as the following week is trending WARMER with the feel of summer returning for several days.

 

Yep, temps should rebound for an extended period from just after Labor Day Sep 6 and lasting through at least Mon Sep 13.  We should note that several model runs have indicated a cool, somewhat damp pattern during the period, but that has, indeed, been trending off the charts.  We’ll see which pattern verifies.

 

????Tropical Topical:  We mentioned two potential tropical storms in our last update, one (IDA) is moving in faster and will be the big story this weekend (Louisiana landfall probable, with NOLA potentially in the strongest quadrant) - IDA will strengthen considerably; the other, may run late, but still torment the Baja area just after Labor Day weekend.

 

Your host will participate in The 2021 Walk to End Alzheimer’s - Sept 25. 

 

 

 

(Delay because internet provider was off-line). Pleasant weather ahead, so grab your fav morning bev and read the update.

 

Mild temperatures can be expected through this week, with a cool, but weak, Low pressure trough due to arrive over SW BC / Vancouver by Fri.  Showers for Vancouver Island & the far NW corner of WA, as a result.  The rest of the PNW will head into the coming weekend with breezy, sunny afternoons.  There is the likelihood for temps to WARM up 5-10 degrees or so by Sunday, as a ridge of High pressure rebuilds into the PNW from the south.  This will be short lived, given another Low following the path of the previous one — so by the last day of August, temps should drop down again, esp for the Puget Sound, north.  BREEZY.

 

Seasonal afternoon temps for the start of Sept.  Breezes from the NW.  Labor Day weekend is trending quite favorable, with warm afternoons following morning cloud decks in the usual places west side.  Not too warm, not too cold, no rain.

 

After Labor Day, Sept may turn cooler, with weak systems moving in from the NW and, hopefully, some rainfall before mid-month, as the dominant summer Pacific High shifts farther west, opening the storm door.  Please.  IMAGE BELOW: cumulative precipitation estimate for the most of the US from today through Sep 8.  Notice the PNW & CA are completely dry (white).  Yikes.

 

Tropical Topical:  two hurricanes are probable during the holiday weekend.  One, a Pacific storm that will be close to the tip of Baja, potentially stirring up some good surfing waves for SoCal; the other, an Atlantic storm that may become one of the strongest of the year, threatening the TX to FL panhandle region of the Gulf.  We’ll keep an eye on the ‘eyes’.

 

 

 

Brief update today. 

 

The current Cool pattern should prevail for several more days, with the next pleasant warming trend on tap for later next week.  You may be under a shower, esp along the slopes of the mountains.  Models hint at temps in the 80s for many west side locations for a few days starting next Fri, Aug 27.  The Puget Sound area may remain on the cooler side of the event.  

 

As the last week in August gets underway, expect a weak trough to begin moving down from the NW, cooling the PNW down again.  This time, by early Sept, the chance for drizzles & showers will increase as the Labor Day weekend approaches.  It will turn cool and WINDY across eastern basins too, esp into ID and the continental divide.  If the models verify, Labor Day weekend will not feel like summer.  

 

A Pacific hurricane could roll right up the Gulf of California, while another one may form and threaten the eastern Gulf States.  That time of year.

 

Another funny from the ’Net: “One minute you’re young, hip and carefree and the next minute you’re photographing vegetables in your garden."

(send from a friend that has been following the Giant Pumpkin Project.  Pumpkin is now 442 lbs.)