The Change

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday October 21
Finally Fall - the kind of fall that residents of the PNW expect.  Wet, windy, chilly and fire-stopping.  The change is upon us.  The image below was taken (by your host) here in Albany this morning.  "Pink in the morn’n, sailors warning.”  Ready?
The long awaited Fall rains are arriving later today, Oct 21.  The first couple of systems will be damp, for sure, but the stronger, heavy rain systems, with plenty of WIND, are on tap for next weekend and beyond.  As of now, we see a very limited amount of ‘dry time’ out of the next 16 days!  Take a sip, details are next.
Wet this evening into Sat, with showers overnight into Sunday.  Sunday should be mostly dry, cool.  The next system arrives after dark Sunday, and keeps the region damp through late Wed.  (NOTE: there have been a couple models runs suggesting a tightly wrapped Low moving into OR on Tue, with strong winds.  An outlier, but it illustrates how rapidly deepening Lows off the PNW coast can develop into wind producers.)  A few of the strong systems coming to the sky near you may be remnants from typhoons far to our west.  Onward —
Late Wed through daylight Thu Oct 27 should be mostly dry, cool.  Use the time wisely in getting gutters and storm drain grates clear of leaves.  The big storms cometh.  The last weekend of October is charting to be very wet & windy.  In fact, the charts keep the entire PNW in ‘drench mode’ DAILY for 7 days, Oct 29 through Nov 5.  Sunday Nov 6 should begin a short dry-down period, but it will be November chilly.  California will also get in on the action, esp late in the forecast period.  Halloween & Election Day will be wet.
Overall, fire issues from Canada into California will be taken care of with the moderate rainfall.  Current projections are for 2” to 4” of accumulated precip in the lower elevations during the next 16 days; higher in the coast & Cascade ranges.  Be prepared for slippery roads, clogged storm drains, wind issues (possible).  In a word, FALL.
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