Wet to Warm to Coin Flip

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday June 11
The sound of rain will be on the wx stage the next few days.  What else?  Read on, Patron.
The Low pressure trough west of the coast, mentioned last week, is now in position to spin several bands of notable moisture across the PNW between now and Monday evening.  Imbedded thunderstorms should not be ruled out, esp Saturday evening.  Overall, there is a high probability for rainfall totals ranging in the 1/2" - 2” over the next 4 days in the lowlands.  We can sure use the precip.  
Next week will turn dry & WARM by mid-week, as temps rebound considerably, with highs topping out in the 80s in many west side OR locations; a upper 70s for Puget Sound.  That said, if the onshore breeze kicks-in strong enough (some solutions suggest this), that will tap down temps a bit, but still present dry conditions.  Friday the 18th could be in the low-to-mid 80s.  
Head or Tails.  Here’s where we get into a model coin flip.  Several model runs indicate that dry, warm-turning-hot conditions will prevail after our rainy period.  A few solutions bring in another round of rain/showers, keeping the region cooler, starting again next weekend.  Well, which do we go with?  Flip the coin for now.
  Heads -  the weekend of Jun 19,20 starts out on the warm side (80s) with increasing clouds from the NW by late Sat night and precipitation moving onshore sometime Sunday morning.  Wettest over NW WA.  On Mon Jun 21, moderate rain may work south into OR as a Low center directly over the state.  Cool air aloft could spawn thunderstorms south of Salem by Tue.  Showers continue over WA and NW OR into mid-week; past that, sun and warmth should return by late that week, into the last weekend of June.
  Tails - the other side of the model “coin” charts dry through the weekend of Jun 19,20 with an onshore breeze, with temperatures continuing to climb when as the following week (Jun 21-25) gets underway. Temp topping in the 90s for OR, bit cooler for Puget Sound.
If this has swirled your Mug too much, don’t worry, it will likely change anyway.   The bottom line:  we are going to receive a decent period of rain/showers, with warmer temps afterward.  How long that heated dry spell will last is the question.  We’ll sip through the updated model scenarios on Mon Jun 14.
A giggle from the ’net:  “Chocolate is vital for our survival.  Dinosaurs didn’t have chocolate and look what happened to them."
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