Ah, rain.  Plenty more to come.  Refill & sip on.

 

There is variability in timing of the next series of wet systems, so we’ll simply forecast on/off RAIN all this week. Thu may not end up the dry day after all.  Systems are 24 hours or less apart, with showers and partial clearing in between each Pacific front.  Raincoats needed daily.  The coming weekend may begin a Triple Punch.

 

Three strong systems are modeled to arrive starting late Saturday night, Oct 29 with WIND and moderate rainfall, esp for western WA.  That’s #1.  Number 2 hits the PNW Sunday night or before sunrise Halloween morning, with a bit stronger winds, per current prog charts.  The 3rd, which could be the strongest of the Triple Punch, slams into the region on Tue November 1.  HEAVY rainfall for western WA.  Localized flood issues may arise in portions of western WA, particularly the NW corner (western BC will be slammed, as well).  Note that model scenarios do have a variance, so the second storm may not materialize.  Either way, these systems will be notable for the amount of precipitation & gusty winds.

 

The PNW will be granted a ‘dry out’ period starting Wed Nov 3, which may last through the following weekend of Nov 5,6.  Don’t make outdoor plans just yet.

 

“Good luck and good work for the happy mountain raindrops, each one of them a high waterfall in itself, descending from the cliffs and hollows of the clouds to the cliffs and hollows of the rocks, out of the sky-thunder into the thunder of the falling rivers.  Some, falling on meadows and bogs, creep silently out of sight to the grass roots, hiding softly as in a nest, slipping, oozing hither, thither, seeking and finding their appointed work.  Some, descending through the spires of the woods, sift spray through the shining needles, whispering peace and good cheer to each one of them.” -John Muir, 1869.

 

 

Friday October 21

 

Finally Fall - the kind of fall that residents of the PNW expect.  Wet, windy, chilly and fire-stopping.  The change is upon us.  The image below was taken (by your host) here in Albany this morning.  "Pink in the morn’n, sailors warning.”  Ready?

 

The long awaited Fall rains are arriving later today, Oct 21.  The first couple of systems will be damp, for sure, but the stronger, heavy rain systems, with plenty of WIND, are on tap for next weekend and beyond.  As of now, we see a very limited amount of ‘dry time’ out of the next 16 days!  Take a sip, details are next.

 

Wet this evening into Sat, with showers overnight into Sunday.  Sunday should be mostly dry, cool.  The next system arrives after dark Sunday, and keeps the region damp through late Wed.  (NOTE: there have been a couple models runs suggesting a tightly wrapped Low moving into OR on Tue, with strong winds.  An outlier, but it illustrates how rapidly deepening Lows off the PNW coast can develop into wind producers.)  A few of the strong systems coming to the sky near you may be remnants from typhoons far to our west.  Onward —

 

Late Wed through daylight Thu Oct 27 should be mostly dry, cool.  Use the time wisely in getting gutters and storm drain grates clear of leaves.  The big storms cometh.  The last weekend of October is charting to be very wet & windy.  In fact, the charts keep the entire PNW in ‘drench mode’ DAILY for 7 days, Oct 29 through Nov 5.  Sunday Nov 6 should begin a short dry-down period, but it will be November chilly.  California will also get in on the action, esp late in the forecast period.  Halloween & Election Day will be wet.

 

Overall, fire issues from Canada into California will be taken care of with the moderate rainfall.  Current projections are for 2” to 4” of accumulated precip in the lower elevations during the next 16 days; higher in the coast & Cascade ranges.  Be prepared for slippery roads, clogged storm drains, wind issues (possible).  In a word, FALL.

 

 

 

 

There may be good weather news on the way.  Got your morn’n Mug ready?

 

Patrons that have ‘Mugged around’ this virtual Café for several years, will recall that often model solutions revert back to earlier forecast outlooks.  Well, that may be the good news today.  The long hoped for change to a wet, Fall pattern is back on the charts for this coming weekend, Oct 22,23.  Indeed.  Thursday & early Fri should mark be the transition into a cool, wet weekend.  Windy, too.  Beforehand, wx conditions will be smoky/hazy at times before an onshore flow picks up on Thu.  Temps will be moderate in the 70s.  The pacific High will shift farther west, opening the door for wet systems to FINALLY work into the PNW.  Rain should arrive late Friday (+/- a few hours); Sat will be wet, breezy and definitely cooler than what we have experienced this Fall.  

 

Sunday should be the ‘in between’ day, so expect sun breaks, scattered showers, coolness.  The second system will follow in a similar track, pushing into the region late Sunday for a wet start to next week.  Temps will be cooler yet.  Snow level will drop dramatically by Monday afternoon the 24th, so don’t be surprised to see The White if you travel to the east side.  Temperatures will be cold enough Thu morning east of the Cascades for the FIRST FROST, if the sky clears.  The Monday system will linger and drop into CA by mid-week (good news there, too).  Models are mixed for the middle of next week: could be damp or dry.  We will call it mostly dry Wed - Fri Oct 26-28 next week; fall cool.  

 

The last weekend of October is currently trending DAMP,  although a few model solutions hold off more rain until late Halloween.  The latest projection is for a disturbance to arrive Sat the 29th, which, if verified, would become the strongest storm yet this season -- bringing plenty of moderate-to-heavy rain, wind, and another step down in the temperature dept.  We’ll review this in our next report.

 

For now, let’s keep our Mugs ready for blessed, fire-damping RAIN to return to the PNW by the end of this week. 

 

 

 

The 1977 Star Wars opening crawl text was preceded by the classic line, “A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away…”  Well, a long time ago, in an atmosphere far, far away, October was the month when Fall rains began in earnest across the PNW.  Our "only hope" for precipitation to begin during the weekend of Oct 22,23 has been fading away with each forecast update.  Best get your morn'n refill and read on.

 

No rain is expected around the PNW through this weekend and all of next week.  Sure, a very weak trough may drop over northern Vancouver Is. and portions of southern BC, but it is likely to be a cloud event only.  The rest of the region will remain dry.  Saturday the 15th will be quite warm.  Temps next week should be in the low 70s in most locations excluding the coast.

 

As you’ll recall, models solutions have, for the past 7-10 days, suggested that RAIN would arrive by the weekend of Oct 22,23.  Current model runs are now trending away from that solution.  A cold system may still drop in from the NW on the 22nd - but not down over the bulk of the PNW; instead it will skirt across interior BC, missing Abbotsford, Vancouver Is., and the rest of the PNW.  Drat.  Clouds & showers could clip northern Vancouver Island by Mon night, Oct 24 and continue a few days thereafter.  Generally, though, it will cool down a few degrees.

 

We may have to wait until the 28th for rain to reach western WA (skipping nearly all of OR & ID), as models keep the very dominate, blocking High pressure ridge in place over most of the PNW through at least Halloween.  Now, that’s scary for water resource managers.

 

 

 

To start this week, the region will experience a brief break from the unusually warm October weather, before the dominate blocking pattern returns, along with morning fog.  Will rain ever arrive?  Let’s see what the charts reveal.

 

A cold front will rapidly drift over western WA & BC today, ushering in cooler temps, some clouds and an outside chance for a shower, esp in the higher terrain of NW WA & BC.  Oregon will get that break from the morning fog; very limited precip, if any.  As the week moves forward, expect a return to above average temperatures (esp Wednesday the 12th) in just about every location.  Morning fog will also return this week.  

 

A dry, foggy bottom pattern will stretch through Thu Oct 20.  Then, beginning on Fri the 21st, the overall blocking pattern is modeled to change, finally.  While we are not placing bets on this yet, we do see the High pressure ridge shifting west, opening the door for cold fronts to move “down” along the Alaskan Panhandle, coastal BC and into the PNW.  This will usher in the coldest air mass of the fall, with rain/showers, mountain SNOW and overnight lows - if the sky clears - teasing out the first frost of the fall by Thu Oct 27.   For the weekend of Oct 22,23 expect RAIN and wind.  Rainfall could be moderate-to-heavy.  Let’s hope this scenario develops.