Generally, PNW wx for the next couple of weeks should remain calm, with marginal, spotty precipitation.  Here’s the latest.

 

Mild temperatures this week across the region, with a 'parked Low’ spinning off the coast of northern CA that may send a few showers over southern OR & northern CA.  WINDS will kick-up in the far eastern zones, esp Idaho, as a chilly High pressure dome drops into the U.S. heartland, while the ‘parked Low shifts over ID to bring on rain there.  Patrons in western valleys will enjoy 70s with plenty of afternoon sunshine through Thursday.

 

On Fri Sep 23, a weak disturbance could bring increasing clouds & a slight chance for a shower from roughly Chehalis north.  All that clears out by the coming weekend.  Sunshine & mild temps should continue for an extended period. Where is the rain???

 

Similar to the current pattern, models track a Low pressure trough off the PNW coast as it moves south during that last week of Sep.  Early on this system was to bring us much needed rainfall.  Yeah, right.  Instead, temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s are possible during the last few days of September.  

 

The first weekend of October is trending WET, as that new ‘parked Low’ off the coast of CA moves up and over the PNW, hopefully.  A dry ridge of High pressure again reforms to block additional storms from the region from Oct 3 through the 6th, at least.  Oh my.  

 

????Topical Tropical: hurricane FIONA will strengthen as it continues to move northward, well off the east coast of the US.  Current projections target Newfoundland as the likely landfall point.  In addition, a new hurricane may develop during the last week of September; this one, should it verify, will be named GASTON and quite possibly threaten FL as October gets underway.  Stay tuned.

 

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Great effort, Patrons ! — we are at the $2,660 mark for the Walk to End Alzheimer’s fundraiser this year.  Thank you!  The Walk is this Saturday, the 24th.  Here’s the link:

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Well, the long-range outlook continues to frustrate ‘rain-seekers’.  Let’s take a peek.

 

A Low pressure trough will move south off the coast this weekend.  Problem is, the Low will track too far west to bring steady rain over OR/WA.  We will not rule out a shower here & there later Saturday evening into Sunday morning primarily Salem south.   Coastal areas, esp south of Coos Bay, could be in for higher amounts of precip.  That Low is charting to track closer to the Bay Area of CA early next week to become relatively stationary as it ‘fills in’ and dissipates.  If that happens, expect some precipitation to spin northward into southern OR and/or along the Cascades.  

 

We are going with DRY & mild-to-warm conditions to continue through next week.  Sunshine should prevail, with temperatures climbing into the high 70s to low 80s, at times.  Overnight lows may be on the chilly side, though.  Windy in the far eastern WA & ID region Tue & Wed.  A weak system may track over western WA on Friday, but no rain is expected, as this will likely remain a Puget Sound cloud event, with cooler temps.  Mild in OR.

 

Unfortunately for rain-seekers, the weekend of Sep 24,25 is trending DRY as any Low pressure trough that develops should track south well offshore.  Temps will be mild (70s mostly).  The following week (Sep 26-30) is also trending DRY & mild, as the rain-bands, if you will, should remain too far west over the Pacific to provide our region much needed precipitation.  Fall wine & concord grape harvest should begin with favorable conditions.  No frost foreseen.  By Thu or Fri Sep 29, 30, the Low pressure trough will move south west of the Bay Area (sound familiar?) keeping the PNW dry until the first weekend of October.

 

Yes, now the wx models suggest rain could arrive by the Oct 1,2 weekend.  We’ll see.

 

???? Topical Tropical: FIONA is currently a tropical storm (TS) and moving towards the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands.  By the time FIONA arrives northwest of Hispaniola, it will deepen to potentially cause issues with the Bahamas.  Right now, we see the storm becoming a strong hurricane, but, as with the others this season, it will drift NW and then NE over the Atlantic to remain a ‘Fish Storm’.  FL and the eastern seaboard should be spared.  Stay tuned, though, as wx charts are so variable.

 

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The 2022 Walk to End Alzheimer’s is fast approaching.  Your host will walk on behalf of The Weather Café®️in Corvallis on the 24th.  Thus far, Patrons have donated a total $1,670.  Go ahead, place a few 'Mug-bucks' in the virtual donation jar on The WxCafé™️ counter (link below).  This is a worthy cause.  Thank you, Patron!

 

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Mild pattern ahead, which goes well with a morn’n java.

 

Pleasant weather for the week, if you enjoy cooler temps (60s - 70s) and a morning marine cloud deck that should clear by the afternoons.  Coastal locations may have drizzle, as well.  Wind should be gentle.  The pattern favors our hard-working firefighters.  Mid-level moisture will continue to stream to the NE setting off showers on the east side, on into ID.

 

The coming weekend is trending mixed.  That is, a chance for both showers & clearing because of a Low pressure trough that charts to move south along the OR coast.  Cooler weekend temps than the coming week, so find that sweater or sweatshirt.  It should not be a wash-out, just a definite fall feeling and wet pavement, at times.

 

That same Low will, interestingly, track over the Bay area of CA, before moving north again to become ’stationary’ right off the coast around Brookings.  The result?  A southernly flow of moisture that triggers mountain, and potentially valley thunderstorms - esp for OR - during the week of Sep 19-23.  Also, early that week, strong east winds may kick-up for a day or two.  Too early to confirm; we simply suggest the possibility.  

 

For the final weekend of September, models continue to go back-n-forth as to RAIN or mild-to-warm sunshine.  What’s happening is that the large-scale upper-level wind pattern may shift, ushering in a period of stormy fall weather.  A classic fall rain pattern for late Sep could begin that weekend, or shortly thereafter.  If that fails to verify, then the wx will continue dry for the PNW with mild-to-warm temperatures.  Keep your Mug handy.

 

 

 

Greetings, Patron.  The main change since our last posting is that September rains could hold off longer than we wished.  Best to refill that Mug before we take a peek.

 

Lots of info & warnings being posted by officials in regards to the 24 hr shot of high winds later today into Saturday.  We appreciate the effort being made to make folks aware of the potential for fire conditions that could literally change a small flame into a raging forest fire.  We remember 2020.  We tip our Mugs to firefighters already on the lines of existing blazes.  Anyway, the east winds will subside rapidly by Sunday, with cooler temperatures arriving, as well.  You guessed it - the blessing of an onshore flow resumes.  

 

Next week will be much cooler, with plenty of inland sunshine & on/off cloudiness at the coast.  We had expected the chance for rain to increase as the week progressed; however, recent model solutions have been trending AWAY from any notable rainfall arriving.  For now, let’s go with the chance for showers during next weekend, mainly over the Puget Sound, north.  We will update after the weekend.

 

The next WARM period is charting for around Monday Sep 19 through the 21st.  Temps in the 80s west side inland from the coast; tad cooler for NW WA & southern BC.  Pacific storms will become stronger and edge closer to the PNW as the weekend of Sep 24,25 approaches.  Right now, model runs hold those storms to the north of Vancouver Island.  We’ll watch closely, slight error in model projections could bring on substantial rain by the 26th.

 

Overall, it looks predominantly DRY throughout the next 2 weeks.

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Tap on the shoulder reminder of The WxCafé™️ fundraising for the 2022 Walk to End Alzheimer’s.  The event is 2 weeks away.  Your contributions, thus far, total $1,120. Awesome! 

 

 

 

 

Brief update for the next couple of weeks, as you enjoy the last holiday of Summer.

 

Pleasant temperatures on tap for the week, with the warmest afternoons continuing to chart for this Thu through Sat, Sep 8-10.  It may turn WINDY across the eastern portions of the PNW on into the Rocky Mtn states.  Nine Eleven (Sunday) is looking warm, as well, but increasing onshore flow may tap down temps in the western valleys/Puget Sound.  Before peeking at next week, we must take a look at the potential for KAY.  Say what?

 

????KAY will likely be a Pacific hurricane that could strike quite a wind/rain blow to the coast of Baja.  Although long-range models indicate KAY will weaken rapidly as it skirts the western shores of Baja, the storm should have enough gusto to generate awesome surfing waves along the southern CA coast late next week (yes, your host frequently surfed southern CA in the late 60s - early 70s - we dreamed for these types of storm waves).  Back to the PNW.

 

The week of Sep 12 - 16 has been trending dry & warm the first few days, then cooling with increasing chance for cloudiness & precipitation by Fri the 16th.  If that pattern verifies, we can expect the weekend of the Mt Angel Octoberfest to be rather cool & wet, with clearing possible late Sunday the 18th.  Quite windy for eastern OR, WA and ID.  Stay tuned.

 

Mon - Wed, Sep 19-21 charts out as damp early, turning fall cool & dry, with possible high winds across California (the Santa Ana Winds).

 

 

-Rufus

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