Is it Fall?  Well, get your morn’n Mug ready and read on.

 

Meteorological fall starts Sept 1.  Astronomical fall starts with the Sept Equinox - when the Sun crosses the Equator (truly rises ‘due east and sets ‘due west’), which will be on the 23rd.  So, with Mug in hand, welcome to Fall 2022!  What about the weather for the next couple of weeks? 

 

The holiday weekend will be decent.  Not too hot, as an onshore flow will prevail.  A few drizzles or showers - primarily north of Seattle on Sunday and lots of sunshine around the PNW.  Outdoor activity should go fine.

 

Next week will, overall, be pleasant.  It should cool down a few degrees mid-week with another Low transversing NW WA, followed by high pressure ridging late week to set up the warmest days Thu through Sat, Sep 8-10.  

 

The second weekend of Sep will be mild, with increasing onshore breeze by 9/11.  Some model solutions keep it rather warm throughout that weekend.  We have time to adjust in the upcoming forecasts.

 

Mid-September is trending generally dry with mild temperatures before a possible ‘last swing at Summer’ in the Sep 16-20 period with warmer afternoons.  A couple model runs hint at some precipitation over San Francisco and southern OR around the 12-14.  Not a lot of confidence in this aspect, but the drought in that region could sure a meteorological fall rain.  

 

Topical Tropical:  two named storms will play out in the early days of Sept - DANIELLE and EARL.  Both will likely become ‘Fish Storms’ - tropical storms/hurricanes that wander over the Atlantic, with no threat to landfall.  A couple of Pacific hurricanes are charting to clip southern Baja. 

 

 

 

The final month of Summer is nearing an end.  What about the long dry spell?  Let’s take a look.

 

First, the week ahead will be on the HOT side early, then temperatures will cool off a bit as the week ends and the long holiday weekend begins.  Hottest day likely to be Tue or Wed; upper 90s Willamette Valley area, close to 90 around the Sound.  The heat ridge will shift farther east by Thu, allowing an onshore flow to begin to decrease the afternoon heat.  There will be changes over the Gulf of Alaska (broad Low pressure trough filling the ’space’) as the holiday weekend unfolds.  The resultant wx will be cooler over the most of western WA, with spotty cloudiness, at times, less so over OR and to the east.  Should remain rather warm into ID.  It will be rather cool on Labor Day, with a shower possible north of Chehalis.  Breezy, esp east of the Cascades.

 

Post Labor Day pattern is looking to warm up again, approaching on the hot side for southern OR by Wed the 7th.  Models have been quite inconsistent as to the conditions that week, so expect adjustments.  Early on there was a wet pattern on the charts, but that has drifted into the ’not-so-likely’ realm.  A southerly flow aloft around Thu & Fri Sep 8,9 could usher in east slope mountain thunderstorms.  

 

The charts indicate the possibility for RAIN sometime in the Sep 10-13 period.  Maybe.  We’ll keep an eye on this, as the region could use the precipitation.  The pacific High may nudge back closer to the PNW coast, which would block precip after the 14th for several days.  We’ll see.

 

 

A pleasant weekend ahead, even a few showers possible north of Chehalis.  We do have more heat coming, so Mug up & read on.

 

Yes, this weekend will be cooler and more enjoyable outside than the past few hot days.  A weak system from the NW will cross western WA, ushering in an onshore flow, clouds and drizzle/showers in a few places.  Main impact will be much cooler temperatures - could be a drop of nearly 20 degrees compared to yesterday the 25th.  Sunday will be less cloudy & warmer.

 

Next week is trending warmer and dry.  In fact, models hint at yet another HEAT-UP with regional temps topping back into the 80s and 90s west side on Tue & Wed to end the month of August.  We will not rule out a triple-digit reading on Wed, Aug 31, esp in the usual hot spots.  

 

Another surge of onshore flow should begin Thu to start the month of September off with a cool period.  The last holiday weekend of the Summer of ‘22 will be on the cool side, although Sat & maybe Sunday in OR could be warm (models have been back-n-forth for a damp Friday/Saturday).  A change in the overall pattern is charting to set up Monday Sep 5 - Labor Day - meaning fall-like weather is likely starting late Sunday over Vancouver Is and NW WA, moving south by Labor Day.  Clouds and RAIN are probable to end the holiday weekend.  Be prepared if camping.

 

The short work and ‘back-to-school’ week is trending cool & wet, at times, with Low pressure systems moving into the PNW from the Gulf of Alaska.  Folks will be calling it an early Fall arrival, weather-wise.  We’ll see.

 

The weekend of Sept 10,11 is charting as damp early, warming by Sunday with a break in the ‘fall-like’ pattern to yield sunny, pleasant afternoons going into the Sep 12-16 week.  Early yet, as a few model runs keep the region on the wet fall-side. 

 

Topical Tropical:  a system may develop in the Gulf of Mexico and begin to threaten landfall between Pensacola and the Texas and Louisiana after Labor Day weekend.  An Atlantic system may just wander over the ocean.  A ‘fish storm’.   Both September storms, if they verify.  An interesting fact - thus far in August, no Atlantic tropical storms have developed and been given a name.  It has been 30 years since this has happened.

 

Personal Note:  the annual Walk to End Alzheimer’s is coming September 24.  Your host will again participate on your behalf in Corvallis this year.  Please click on the link below for any donation to this important cause (The WxCafé™️ limits fundraising to this one event only).  We’ll keep you posted as to our total for 2022.  Last year, Patrons contributions placed The Weather Café®️as the top earner for the Mid-Valley, Oregon Chapter.  Let’s go for it again. 

 

 

A few adjustments, as expected, are indicated in the long-range wx outlook.  Is your morn’n beverage ready?

 

Relatively mild temps today & tomorrow the 23rd.  A Heat-up is “on” for Wed and Thu, with the later being the hottest of the week.  Both afternoons in the 90s for western OR; slightly cooler for NW WA.  The final weekend of August 2022 is trending cooler, as the onshore flow picks up again on Fri Aug 26th.  A weak surface Low is charting to sag across SW WA Fri night/Sat morning, ushering in some of the cooler temps of the month, and drizzle along the coast.   Breezy east side, esp SE OR.  A tad warmer on Sunday.

 

The final days of August are charting as HOT, with temps threatening to top triple-digits in a few western OR locations.  The heat cranks up on Tue Aug 30 and may last through the balance of the week.  It will warm considerably across the northern tier of the PNW, as well.

 

Labor Day Weekend: Here’s where model runs vary considerably.  Some solutions bring another Low pressure trough directly over the PNW beginning Fri Sep 2, for showers and breezy, cool holiday temperatures; other solutions extend the heat-up through Sat of the holiday weekend by keeping that Low offshore, tracking to the south, then turning onshore sometime late Sat night, for a mild Sunday & warmer Monday Sep 5.   We’ll peek at this again later this week.

 

The week after Labor Day is trending warm-to-hot, so don’t put the watering cans away just yet.

 

Topical Tropical:  the current quiet period the 2022 hurricane season may be coming to an end.  Atmospheric conditions west of Africa are becoming favorable for major development of the Lows moving off the continent.  It’s possible for a named storm (DANIELLE or EARL) to threaten the eastern seaboard of the USA right after the Labor Day holiday.  Stay tuned, esp if you are traveling to the east coast.

 

Third Cup ☕️☕️☕️ — We likely heading into the 3rd consecutive fall/winter season of a La Niña pattern.  The last time this has happened was 1950.  The May and June 2022 readings were some of the lowest temperature variances on record (going back to 1850).  Water management agencies across the desert SW & CA are concerned that this could portend a continuance of regional droughts.  We’ll present an informal review of this later in September. 

 

 

 

A pleasant cool-down today, with more heat on the way soon.  Mug refilled?  Good.

 

As expected, the onshore flow was turned on rapidly last night, cooling down the region and setting up a pleasant sunny weekend.  There is some precip falling over the Puget Sound on the leading edge of a weak front this Fri morning.  Enjoy the refreshment.

 

The summer ridge of High Pressure will rebuild next week so that by Wed, temps will pop back up into the uncomfortable range.  Thursday is likely to be the hottest day next week (with a triple-digit reading possible in some west side locations). What was looking to be an extended heat wave lasting on through Fri the 26 plus the Aug 27th-28th weekend is now charting as a ‘repeat’ of the current pattern.  Meaning, next Fri could also present a cool-down onshore flow for relief from the heat.  That is the newest trend for the past few model runs.  Let’s go with it for now.

 

As implied, the last weekend of August will be warm, but pleasantly so.  The next HEAT WAVE is looking to develop during the week of Aug 29 - Sep 2.  While tweaking back & forth as to the ‘start' date, all indications are for a substantial heat up as August ends.  Early Sep is also looking quite HOT (95-105).  Temps could ramp up rapidly as early as Mon the 29th, or pause a couple of days until mid-week.  The hot wx could last 5-7 days, although some model solutions limit the heat to 3 or 4 days (normal for such patterns, esp in late summer).  We’ll see.

 

For now, plan on having warm-to-hot summer wx conditions for the next couple of weeks, give or take a mild afternoons (80s) scattered therein.  On the plus side, the humidity should be in a more comfortable range, as compared to the past few days of sweat-city.

 

“A steering committee is four people trying to park a car.”